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The new balance of global power全球力量的新平衡

By Rade Drobac,Deputy President of the Belgrade Forum for the World of Equals
文|拉德·德罗巴茨(Rade Drobac)  贝尔格莱德平等世界论坛副主席        翻译|王晓波

导读

抑制世界事务中的不平等和建立新的公正世界的进程已经开始,但这将是一个漫长的过程,需要跨越许多障碍

冷战时期:“两大阵营”平衡对抗

1989年后:美国一家独大

中俄崛起:世界从单极走向多极

重塑新的权力平衡

 

 

The current situation in the world is characterized by the constant rise of economic, military and, consequently, political power and influence in the international relations and affairs of Russian Federation (RF) and China and the continual degradation of the, until recently, unchallenged leader and unique power of the unipolar world – United States of America (USA).

It seems more evident by day that the period of uncontested leadership of USA over the world political, military, financial and economic affairs and its predominant influence in international organizations and affairs is constantly and seriously challenged by RF and China suppressing its possibility to impose decisions, rules and activities in relation first to RF and China themselves, then to other countries. That process, if it continue and it seems that it will, would inevitably led toward multipolar world, in which there will be no more place for one uncontested leader, untouchable and omnipotent, because the power will be divided.

In this moment it is important to remind that from 1945 to 1989, already existed multipolar relations in the world during the period known under the name of “Cold war”. It was marked by the existence and deep confrontation of two super powers, USA and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), two different political systems, capitalism and communism, two economic models – liberal capitalism (free market) and state owned communism/socialism (planned economy) and two different social and cultural models, living more or less independently one from the other, separated with so-called “iron curtain”. Both superpowers had a number of countries that inclined to their side forming Capitalist and Communist/Socialist blocks. On the military level the confrontation was expressed by NATO (1949 -West) and Warsaw Pact (1955 -East) and on the economic side, less generally accepted but still existing, European Union (EU) and Council for Mutual Economic Cooperation (SEV). During that period the balance of power, predominantly military and political, or better said ideological, succeed to keep certain global stability in the world because of mutual fear, existence of nuclear arms on both sides and a lack of decisive superiority on one of the sides over the opponent. There was, of course, conflicts, even wars, usually proxy ones, but without serious threat of global confrontation. During that period the international law and international organizations were, at some extent, respected, because the balance of power didn’t permit to any side to prevail and misuse them too much. That balance of power and differences in almost everything existed until November 1989 when Berlin wall that separated West and East Germany and divided two blocks was torn down.

That event demonstrated that USSR lost the game of force and entered in structural transition that opened the road for its disintegration and for the race of USA to grab everything it can catch taking profit of such situation and transforming itself in the mightiest and very aggressive unique power in the world. Practically immediately, USA pushed the reunification of Germany (October 3rd 1990) as the first step of its taking up of former USSR influenced territories and its expansion to the East. The collapse of USSR had very negative impact for it. It caused the proclamation of independence of all its 15 former republics: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and, of course, Russia. In those new proclaimed independent states about 30 millions of ethnic Russian became minorities and in many cases deprived of elementary rights. Beside that, despite the fact that Warsaw pact was disbanded in 1991, NATO continued to exist and, contrary to RF warnings, spread toward the East, by admission to its membership many of the countries from the former Eastern block. From 1999 to 2020 members became Poland, Hungary, Check Republic (1999), Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia (2004), Albania, Croatia (2009), Montenegro (2017) and North Macedonia (2020). By its interference in Ukraine and promises to admit it in NATO, USA practically came on the borders of RF and directly threatened its security and territorial integrity. Beside that, USA constantly manifested an aggressive policy toward the rest of the world. During about 26 years (1989-2015 and still) USA participated in a lot of wars and military interventions: Panama (1989-1990), Gulf war (1990-1991 Iraqi no-fly zone enforcement operations (1991-2003), First USA intervention to the Somali civil war (1992-1995), Bosnian war and Croatian war (1992-1995), Intervention in Haiti (1994-1995), Kosovo war ( Serbia) (1999), War in Afghanistan (2001-2021), Yemen (2002-still), Iraq (2003-2011), North-West Pakistan (2004-2018), Second Somali intervention in the civil war (2007-still), Intervention in Libya (2011), American led intervention in Iraq (2014-2021), ), American led intervention in Syria (2014-still), American intervention in Libya (2015-still). Consequently, the period from 1989 to 2015 could be considered as the period of uncontested unilateral domination of USA in the world affairs and USA as the unique unilateral superpower in the world.

The actual instability, crises, antagonisms and conflicts in the world are the clear proof that the things in the world are changing and that the unique predominant position of USA as unipolar power in the world affairs is shaken and that the antagonisms between USA and, in first place RF, but also, China, are constantly rising.  Those antagonismes came to the point that they can’t be solved easily, through dialogue, and with good will from both sides, but with difficulties and strong opposition of USA. That process can be understood as a sign of the transition from unipolar to multipolar world with serious global risks, but with sincere hopes of many freedom loving countries, oriented to their national interests and the respect of international law that on its end it would create conditions for fairer and righteous relations with equal opportunity for any country and nation to develop and freely cooperate in its own interest. But the still actual hegemon, USA, is not disposed to accept the fact that it isn’t anymore the only one that create the rules, impose its interests, interprets international law on its own, intervene where and when it judge convenient. It refuses to understand that some countries evolved and progressed to the point to be in condition to impose and defend successfully their interests, too, and oppose their will to the decisions and activities of USA where their interest are endangered, in other words – to defend their national interests even against USA. Such policy inevitably led to antagonisms, mutual accusations, pressures, conflicts and instability with possible global consequences. The conflict in Ukraine clearly proves it and is today’s the most dangerous clashing point between USA and new emerging superpowers. In that clash RF demonstrates its readiness to defend itself and to affront every attempt and danger toward its territorial integrity and interests. This conflict create certainly a very dangerous situation and represent a threat for global peace but it seems that it couldn’t be avoided because there is no will from the side of USA to resolve antagonisms peacefully and allow other countries to live in peace and develop on their own. It is evident that there is in the world enough space for everybody, but some states, in first place USA and its allies, doesn’t want to renounce to its privileged self-proclaimed position and share interests with other countries. Because of that, in the near future it is possible that, stimulated by USA, new conflict happen, new crises emerge, in first place financial and economic ones, media frenzy occur against RF and China in relation of Ukraine conflict or in case of degradation of the situation concerning Taiwan or other negative events. From the other side, on the international level RF and China demonstrated that they advocate the equality in the international relations and freedom for every country to chose its way, internal and external policies, without pressures and conditions, without interference in the affairs of other countries and the cooperation under fair and honest commercial rules in the true interest of every country. Consequently, the process to a suppression of inequality in the world affairs and the creation of new just world, has begun but it would be long with a lot of obstacles to overpass.

The intentions of RF and China are transparent and publicly announced through very important “Joint declaration of RF and China about the entering of international relations in a new epoch and stable global development” from February 4 2022. That declaration represent a turning point for the cooperation of RF and China and their strategic partnership but more than that, significantly contributed that the rest of the world understand not only the historical moment in which the world is in but also to clearly recognize the causes of the instability in the world and the projected pillars of its new architecture that are in the interest of every freedom loving state. The Declaration testifies that RF and China are fully aware of the complex moment of the contemporary world and that they are ready to take their historical responsibilities. The declaration precise that the “new balance of power is in formation, that forces that represent a minority in the world arena continue to practice unilateral approaches to the international problems, use the policy of force, interfere in the internal affairs of other countries harming their legitimate rights and interests, inciting animosities, disagreements and conflicts, disturb the progress and development that provoke disagreements in the international community”. Between many valuable statements in that declaration, it is very important to cite the following: “two sides (RF and China) are addressing themselves to all states with the appeal to them, in the interest of global well being, to strengthen the dialogue, mutual confidence, deepen mutual understanding, support universal values such as peace, development, equality, justice, democracy and freedom, respect the rights of nations to choose independently the way of development of their countries, the same as the sovereignty and interests of countries in the field of security and development, to defend the international system based on the central role of UN, the world order based on international law..” etc. The majority of the ideas and statements in the Declaration are very acceptable for the big number of the countries and give them real hope that better and more just international relations and fairer and friendly cooperation between the countries in the world are possible, if not for all the countries in the world, at least for the ones that would align with RF and China and create they own legal and economic system.

The rise in power of RF started with the coming in power Vladimir Putin (2000), first in the political consolidation of the country, then economic recovering and, finally, in military field, where RF made spectacular progress. Somehow this progress stayed in shadow long time that allowed RF to achieve its full development as power. RF fist public demonstration of its newly regained capacity started in September 2015 when, on official request of the Syrian government, RF intervened militarily in the civil war in Syria. By that act RF showed that it considers itself as global power and manifested its intention to mix in the international affairs when its interests are in stake. The special military operation of RF in Ukraine that started on February 24 of this year, demonstrated openly that fact and, in the same time, that RF will not tolerate anymore any covert or open activities of USA and its Western allies that endanger its borders or its interests. RF openly confirmed that it is ready to take any action appropriate to defend its territorial integrity, political, economic and financial interests. Since then, the things evoluate fast and big changes happen everyday.

Concerning China, in recent decades it mainly concentrated to economic grow, commercial expansion and financial stability. In 2010, its overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economic power behind the United States in terms of GDP expressed in current dollar terms. Moreover, China outstripped the US in 2009 to become the world’s largest car market and, in the same year, took first place from Germany as the world’s leading exporter. In the financial area, China has the largest foreign-currency reserves – estimated in early 2014 at close to 4000 billion USD. In the same time, in order to consolidate and promote its global economic position, China launched Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), economic cooperation 17 + 1, Win-win projects and succeed to win and cooperate in many projects over the world, including Europe. The unexpected rapid economic expansion of China surprised the world at the point to consider it increasing pivotal emerging market economy with a crucial role in the global economy. Despite that China was very cautious to pronounce itself publicly in political questions out of regional ones. Its first appearance in that regard was in the Balkans, when the Embassy of China in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in August 2021 contested the legitimacy of Christian Schmitt (Germany) as new High representative in BiH. That was China’s first demonstration of interest for global political questions and regional conflicts out of its geopolitical position and, what is also very important, that act was complementary to the Russian one. It should be also noted that China reacted very sharp to the recent visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan (3.8. of the current year), showing that it would not tolerate such provocations nor from Taiwan, nor from USA. It is obvious that China clearly understand that it should be in joint block with RF because USA is fighting against both countries and because it shares many positions with RF. In case of some militarily conflict in relation with Taiwan, USA will act the same as in Ukrainian conflict. It would militarily help Taiwan, introduce economic sanctions to China and harm its interest everywhere. So, strategic partnership of RF and China is the imperative from both countries.

Contrary to RF and China, USA is losing strength rapidly. Its actual political leadership lost significant support in the country, because of its unfounded ambition to rule the whole world which is every day less realistic. It spread its forces very broadly in the whole world, forcing global agendas instead of national goals, paying more attention to international problems than from national ones, advocating agendas that harm not only the unity, strength and moral of targeted countries but of USA too, provoking divisions and divergences in the country loosing unity and efficiency. By support to the global agenda they turned against them not only new rising super powers but the majority of the world. By supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions to RF they harmed much more their allies then RF, and turned many countries in the worlds against them. They provoked China about Taiwan unifying it with RF more than ever and many other things negative to their interests. Nowadays many countries see more clearly the interference of USA in their internal affairs, by policy “divide et impera” confronting them mutually in their selfish interest, false policies, promises, warranties, but also threats, pressures and their misuse of other states. The future of USA, internally and internationally, deeply depend of the next elections for the House of the representatives, to be held on November 8, 2022, together with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate and the elections for the President of USA that are supposed to be held on November 5, 2024. If the same administration win (Democrats), the problems of USA would deepen and the future would be incertain, but if the Republicans take advantage there is chances to go out from the impasse in what they are now.

The strengthening of RF and China in the international arena and their every day more evident open confrontation with USA and its block, or maybe more correct resistance to it, had already positive consequences to the rest of the world. Out of USA and its allies – Great Britain (GB), European Union (EU), Australia, New Zeeland (NZ), Korea, Japan (JP) and few more states, many countries showed, in different ways, their support to the position of RF and China. The most evident way to manifest it was their refusing to introduce economic sanctions against RF imposed by USA and its allies because of the conflict in Ukraine, despite pressures and threats from USA. Many respectable countries, such as Iran, India, Brazil, South Africa, North Korea, Turkey and, practically, the big majority of the world community, resisted to USA and didn’t introduce economic sanctions against RF. That’s shows that they understand and support the position of RF, in first place, and then of China, and also that they don’t fear USA anymore.

For the actual situation it is maybe important to mention that during the period of “Cold war”, out of two different and opposed blocks, existed a “third” block – Movement of Non-aligned Countries, that .gathered a number of countries (about 120) that didn’t wanted to join one or the other block. Its basic principles about the international relations reflected the international circumstances of that time and were respected between them.  In big part they coincide with principles in the recent Joint Declaration of RF and China and by that are still valid. Between the most important are “respect of territorial integrity and suzerainty of every country”, “non interference in the internal affairs of other countries”, “Settlement of differences by peaceful means”, “Active and peaceful cooperation” and other and those principles are probably the reason why “Joint Declaration of China and RF” is close to many countries, especially former members of Non-alignment movement. Today, when some new balance of power is emerging, maybe it would be possible to revitalize those principles, the international law and reconstruct international organizations in the way to honestly and professionally carry out theirs duties, deal impartially with the international problems and not misuse their position to promote any particular interest. It is necessary to secure that the international community function on base of free, just, legal and transparent cooperation, without interference in internal things of other countries. Maybe, such principles in this moment wouldn’t be acceptable for USA and its allies but in the current situation nobody can defend to the rest of the world to function on those premises. That would probably mean that the world community would be divided in two separate parts, each one with its specific, political, legal, financial, economic and social rules, living independently one from the other. We already had this experience during “Cold war”. Of course, the best would be to gather the whole world over the same principles and institutions, accepted by all and equally favorable to each state, but if it is not immediately possible temporary separation and division is surely better and maybe necessary. Hopping, of course, that USA and its allies, with time, would accept the realities, the wish of the big majority of the world community to have the same right as every other state, without privileges, inequality and injustice, that can happen sooner that expected if the elections in USA bring new more constructive administration.

 


 



当前世界局势的特点是俄罗斯和中国在国际关系和事务中的经济、军事、政治权力和影响力都在不断上升,而直到最近,美国作为单极世界里无人挑战的领导地位和独特力量却在不断衰退。

越来越明显的是,美国在世界政治、军事、金融和经济事务中无可争议的领导地位及其在国际组织和事务中的主要影响,不断受到俄罗斯和中国的严重挑战,先是制止其对俄罗斯和中国强加决策、规则和活动的可能性,然后是阻止其对其他国家的干涉。如果这一进程继续下去的话,而且现在看来是这样的,它将不可避免地将世界引向多极化。在那样的环境下,一个无可争议的、不能触碰又无所不能的领导国,将不复存在,因为权力会被切分。

 

冷战时期:“两大阵营”平衡对抗

从1945年到1989年,在以“冷战”冠名的时期,世界上已经存在着多极关系。它的特点是两个超级大国,美国和苏联,代表的两种不同的政治制度:资本主义和共产主义;两种经济模式:自由资本主义(自由市场)和国有共产主义/社会主义(计划经济),以及两种不同的社会和文化环境,已经存在并且深度对抗,它们大体上相互独立,被所谓的“铁幕”隔开。两个超级大国都拥有一些站在自己一边的国家,形成了资本主义和共产主义/社会主义阵营。在军事层面,北约(1949年成立,由西方国家组成)和华沙条约(1955年成立,由东方国家组成)表现出了对抗;而在经济层面,欧洲联盟(欧盟)和经济合作理事会虽然没有得到普遍接纳,但仍然存在。在那个阶段,双方在军事和政治力量,或者更确切地说是意识形态方面的平衡,成功地维持了世界在一定程度上的稳定,因为双方都心存恐惧,也都拥有核武器,而且一方对另一方缺乏决定性的优势。当然,仍有冲突,甚至战争,不过通常是代理人战争,因此没有出现全球对抗的严重威胁。同样在那个阶段,国际法和国际组织在一定程度上受到了尊重,因为权力平衡不允许任何一方占上风,也不允许它们滥用权力。柏林墙被推倒之前,几乎所有事情都存在着权力平衡和分歧。柏林墙将西德和东德分隔开来,1989年11月它被推倒了。

 

1989年后:美国一家独大

这一事件表明,苏联输掉了武力游戏,开始进入了结构转型,这为其解体和美国抓住从这种局面中获利的机会,展开争夺一切的竞赛开辟了道路,也就是从这个时候开始,美国将自己转变成世界上最强大、最具侵略性的独特力量。实际上,美国立即推动了德国的统一(1990年10月3日),作为其占领前苏联影响的领土和向东扩张的第一步。苏联的解体也对此产生了非常不好的影响。它导致所有15个前加盟共和国宣布独立:亚美尼亚、阿塞拜疆、白俄罗斯、爱沙尼亚、格鲁吉亚、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、摩尔多瓦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌克兰、乌兹别克斯坦,当然还有俄罗斯。在那些新宣布独立的国家中,约有3000万俄罗斯人成为了少数民族,在许多情况下被剥夺了基本权利。此外,尽管华沙条约于1991年解散,但北约继续存在,并且不顾俄罗斯的警告,通过接纳前东方阵营的许多国家成为其成员国而向东部扩张。从1999年到2020年,成为北约成员国的国家包括波兰、匈牙利、捷克共和国(1999年)、保加利亚、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、罗马尼亚、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚(2004年)、阿尔巴尼亚、克罗地亚(2009年)、黑山(2017年)和北马其顿(2020年)。通过干涉乌克兰并承诺其加入北约,美国实际上已经抵达了俄罗斯的边界,并直接威胁到俄罗斯的安全和领土完整。此外,美国对世界其他地区也不断表现出侵略政策。在大约26年的时间里(1989-2015年,直到现在),美国参与了许多战争和军事干预:巴拿马战争(1989-1990年)、海湾战争(1990-1991年)、伊拉克禁飞区执法行动(1991-2003年)、美国对索马里内战的第一次干预(1992-1995年)、波斯尼亚战争和克罗地亚战争(1992-1995年),干预海地(1994-1995年)、科索沃战争(塞尔维亚)(1999年)、阿富汗战争(2001-2021)、也门(2002年至今)、伊拉克(2003-2011年)、巴基斯坦西北部(2004-2018年)、对索马里内战的第二次干预(2007年至今)、干预利比亚(2011年)、美国领导的对伊拉克的干预(2014-2021)和美国对利比亚的干预(2015年至今)。因此,1989年至2015年可以被视为是美国在世界事务中无可争议的单边控制时期,也就是说美国是世界上唯一的单边超级大国。

 
中俄崛起:世界从单极走向多极

世界上的不稳定、危机、对立和冲突都清楚地证明,世界局势正在发生变化。美国作为单极大国在世界事务中的独特主导地位正在被撼动,美国首先与俄罗斯,还有与中国之间的对立正在不断上升。这些敌对情绪发展到了这样一个地步:双方已经不容易带着善意,通过对话解决对立了,因为困难重重,而且美国强烈反对。这一进程可以被理解为从单极世界向多极世界转变的一个标志,具有严重的全球风险,但许多热爱自由的国家从国家利益和对国际法的尊重出发,真诚地希望这一进程的最终结果能为更公平和公正的关系创造条件,让每一个国家和民族都有平等的机会实现其自身发展和自由合作。但仍然是真正霸主的美国不愿意接受这样一个事实,即它不再是唯一一个制定规则、强加其自身利益、自行解释国际法,并在它认为必要时随时随地地对别国进行干预。它拒绝接受一些国家已经发展到了能够成功地执行和捍卫其自身利益的阶段,并在它们的利益受到威胁的情况下反对美国的决定和活动,也就是说,它们有能力维护国家利益,哪怕是反对美国。这样的政策不可避免地会引发对抗、相互指责、压力、冲突和不稳定,并可能产生全球性的后果。乌克兰冲突清楚地证明了这一点,它现在也是美国和新兴超级大国之间最危险的冲突点。在这场冲突中,俄罗斯展示了其自卫的意愿,以及任何对其领土完整和利益的企图和威胁的蔑视。这场冲突无疑造成了一种非常危险的局面,对世界和平构成了威胁,但它又似乎无法避免,因为美国方面没有和平解决对抗的意愿,也不允许其他国家在和平的环境下生存并按照自身的情况发展。显然,每个国家在这个世界上都有足够的空间,但一些国家,首先是美国及其盟友,不愿意放弃其自封的特权地位和与其他国家分享利益。因此,短时间内,在美国的刺激下,可能还会发生新的冲突,出现新的危机,首先是金融和经济危机,其次是针对乌克兰冲突或台湾局势的恶化或其他负面事件,媒体对俄罗斯和中国的激烈反应。另一方面,在国际层面上,俄罗斯和中国已经明确表示,他们提倡国际关系中的平等,主张每个国家在没有压力和附加条件的情况下自由选择自己的道路、内部和外部政策、不干涉其他国家的事务,并且按照公平和诚实的商业规则,在符合每个国家真正利益的前提下展开合作。因此,抑制世界事务中的不平等和建立新的公正世界的进程已经开始,但这将是一个漫长的过程,需要跨越许多障碍。

2022年2月4日,俄罗斯和中国通过了非常重要的“俄罗斯和中国关于进入新时代和全球稳定发展的联合声明”,俄罗斯与中国的意图是透明的,并公开宣布。该宣言体现了俄罗斯与中国合作及其战略伙伴关系的转折点,而且不仅如此,它还让世界其他地区充分了解了世界所处的历史时刻,并且清楚地认识到世界不稳定的根源及其新架构的预期支柱,这些支柱符合每个热爱自由的国家的利益。宣言表示,俄罗斯和中国充分意识到当今世界所处的复杂时刻,并已经准备好承担其历史责任。宣言还明确指出,“新的力量平衡正在形成,在世界舞台上代表少数群体的力量继续对国际问题采取单边做法,使用武力政策,干涉别国内政,损害别国合法权益,煽动仇恨、分歧和冲突,干扰国际社会对发生的纷争的解决”。在该宣言许多有价值的声明中,下面引用的内容非常重要:“双方(俄罗斯和中国)向所有国家发出呼吁,呼吁它们为了全球福祉,加强对话和相互信任,加深相互理解,支持和平、发展、平等、正义、民主和自由等普世价值观,尊重各国独立选择本国发展道路的权利。同时正如各国在安全和发展领域的主权和利益一样,以联合国为中心的国际体系必须得到捍卫,并且要维护以国际法为基础的世界秩序。”宣言中的大多数理念和声明都为许多国家所接受,并给它们带来了真正的希望,即世界各国之间建立起更好和更公正的国际关系以及更公平和友好的合作是可能的。如果不是世界所有国家都接受这一宣言的话,至少对于那些会与俄罗斯和中国站在一起并建立自己的法律和经济体系的国家而言,它们是接受的。

俄罗斯力量的崛起始于普京(2000年)执政,首先是对国家政治的巩固,然后是经济复苏,最后是军事领域,俄罗斯在军事领域取得了惊人的进步。出于某些原因,俄罗斯在军事方面的进步一直没有展现出来,这使它可以充分发展自己的实力。2015年9月,在叙利亚政府的正式要求下,俄罗斯对叙利亚内战进行了军事干预,这是俄罗斯首次公开展示其刚刚恢复的能力。通过这一行动,俄罗斯向世界表明,它认为自己是一个全球大国,并表明它将在利益攸关时参与国际事务的打算。今年2月24日开始的俄罗斯在乌克兰的特别军事行动再次公开表明了这一事实,同时,俄罗斯将不会再容忍美国及其西方盟国任何危及其边界或利益的或秘密或公开的活动。俄罗斯公开确认,它准备采取任何适当行动,捍卫其领土完整和政治、经济及金融利益。从那时起,事件发展得很快,每天都会发生巨大变化。

就中国而言,近几十年来,它主要关注的是自身的经济增长、商业扩张和金融稳定。2010年,中国的以当前美元计算的GDP超过了日本,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济强国。而且,中国在2009年超过美国,成为世界最大的汽车市场,同年,中国取代德国成为世界第一大汽车出口国。在金融领域,中国拥有最大的外汇储备——2014年初估计其外汇储备已接近4万亿美元。与此同时,为了巩固和提升自己在全球的经济地位,中国启动了“一带一路”倡议、17+1经济合作和许多共赢项目,并在包括欧洲在内的多个全球项目中成功地实现了共赢和合作。中国经济出人意料的快速扩张令全世界感到震惊,人们都认为它正在成为一个日益重要的新兴市场经济体,并在全球经济中发挥着至关重要的作用。尽管如此,中国在地区问题以外的政治问题上公开表态时仍非常谨慎。2021 年8月,中国驻波黑大使馆对克里斯蒂安·施密特(德国)担任联合国波黑问题新任高级代表的合法性提出质疑,这是其在这方面的第一次发声。这是中国第一次出于地缘政治立场对全球政治问题和地区冲突表现出兴趣,而且同样重要的是,这一举动也是对俄罗斯立场的补充。还应注意的是,中国对美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西最近访问台湾(今年8月3日)的反应强烈,表明它绝不会容忍来自台湾或美国的此类挑衅。很明显,中国清楚地认识到,它应该与俄罗斯联手阻止这样的行径,因为美国正在与它们两个国家为敌,而它与俄罗斯有着许多相同的立场。如果与台湾发生军事冲突,美国会采取与乌克兰冲突相同的行动。美国会在军事上帮助台湾,对中国实施经济制裁,并损害其在各方面的利益。因此,俄罗斯和中国的战略伙伴关系对两国来说是最重要和紧迫的。

与俄罗斯和中国相反,美国的实力正在迅速失去。它实际的政治领导力在其本国已经失去了大量支持,因为其统治整个世界的野心毫无根据,而且也越来越不现实。它在全世界广泛传播其势力,强迫用全球议程取代国家目标,更多地关注国际问题而不是国家问题。它所鼓吹的议程不仅损害了目标国家的团结、实力和道德,而且对美国也是有害的,在美国引发了分裂和纷争,使国家失去了凝聚力和效率。宣称支持全球议程使他们不仅遭到新兴超级大国的反对,而且世界上大多数国家也反对它。由于支持乌克兰和对俄罗斯实施制裁,美国伤害了比俄罗斯更多的盟友,也使世界上许多国家都反对它的做法。他们在台湾问题上激怒了中国,再加上许多其他对俄罗斯和中国利益不利的事情,使得这两个国家比以往任何时候都更加团结。现在,许多国家都更清楚地看到美国对其内政的干涉,美国采取“分而治之”的政策,为了他们的私利,利用虚伪的政策、承诺、保证,以及威胁、施加压力和对其他国家的误导,挑起国家间的相互对抗。美国的未来,无论在国内还是国际上,都主要取决于2022年11月8日举行的下一届众议院选举,以及将于2024年11月5日举行的参议院100个席位中的35个席位和美国总统的选举。如果现在的政府(民主党)获胜,美国的问题将会加深,未来也将充满不确定性,但如果共和党人能利用好这一机会,他们有可能走出目前的僵局。

俄罗斯和中国在国际舞台上力量的加强,以及他们与美国及其利益集团日益明显的公开对抗,或者可能是更正确的抵制,已经对世界其他地区产生了积极影响。除了美国及其盟友——英国、欧盟、澳大利亚、新西兰、韩国、日本和其他几个为数不多的国家,许多国家都以不同的方式表达了对俄罗斯和中国立场的支持。这方面表现得最明显的是,他们不顾美国的压力和威胁,拒绝对俄罗斯实施美国及其盟友因乌克兰冲突而对其采取的经济制裁。许多值得尊敬的国家,比如伊朗、印度、巴西、南非、朝鲜、土耳其,以及实际上世界绝大多数国家,都抵制美国,没有对俄罗斯进行经济制裁。这表明他们理解并支持俄罗斯的立场,以及中国的立场,而且他们不再惧怕美国了。

 
重塑新的权力平衡

其实就实际情况而言,也许有必要提及的是,在“冷战”期间,除了两个不同的、对立的阵营,还存在着“第三个”阵营——不结盟国家运动,它聚集了一些不想加入任何一个阵营的国家(约120个)。它关于国际关系的基本原则反映了当时的国际形势,并在这些国家之间得到尊重。在很大程度上,这些原则与俄罗斯和中国最近发表的联合声明中的原则是一致的,而且它们现在仍然有效。其中最重要的原则是“尊重每个国家的领土完整和主权”、“不干涉别国内政”、“以和平的方式解决分歧”、“展开积极、和平的合作”等,这些原则可能是为什么中国和俄罗斯联合声明与许多国家,特别是不结盟运动的前成员国,密切相关的原因。今天,当某种新的权力平衡出现时,也许有可能使这些原则和国际法重新恢复生机,同时以诚实专业的方式重建国际组织,保证它们能履行其职责,公正地处理国际问题,而不是滥用其地位为任何特殊利益集团谋利。必须确保国际社会在自由、公正、合法和透明的合作基础上发挥作用,并且不得干涉别国内政。也许,美国及其盟友现在无法接受这样的原则,但在目前的情况下,没有这些前提,没有人能保护世界其他国家的正当权益。这可能意味着国际社会将被分成两个独立的部分,每个部分都有其具体的政治、法律、金融、经济和社会规则,彼此独立存在。我们在“冷战”期间已经有过这种经历。当然,最好的方法是让全世界的国家聚合在一起,接受对每个国家都同样有利的共同原则和制度,可是如果这样的愿望不能立即实现,暂时的隔离和分开肯定更好一些,而且可能也是必要的。当然,希望美国及其盟友随着时间的推移能够接受现实,接受国际社会绝大多数国家的愿望,即享有与其他国家一样的权利,没有特权、不平等和不公正。如果美国的选举能带来新的、更具建设性的政府,这种情况也可能会比预期的更早发生。