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The Challenges of Global Security全球安全的挑战

By Rade Drobac,Deputy President of the Belgrade Forum for the World of Equals
文|拉德·德罗巴茨(Rade Drobac)  贝尔格莱德平等世界论坛副主席        翻译|王晓波

导读

为了欧洲和世界的持久和平,不仅必须解决乌克兰冲突,而且还要解决全球安全问题,并在平等和“主权和独立国家和平合作”基础上就建立世界新秩序达成一致

冲突的形成与影响

冲突的本质:俄国与美西方的对抗

冲突、霸权及其他

冲突的变量

 

 

After the start of the Russian Federation (RF) Special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the international community turned its attention to that conflict while the international relations are by day more interlinked and greatly conditioned by it. United States of America (USA) predicted its inevitability few times just before its outbreak, but for the vast majority of the world it came as surprise. It is now evident that USA and their media machinery deliberately hid from other countries the very serious events around Ukraine and turned the attention of the rest of the world to other issues. The majority of the world didn’t know what was really happening there. World media under US control constantly ignored events, news, stands and warnings, in that particular case of RF, but also of other countries, if they don’t correspond to their interest and their vision of the world. Consequently, Western countries knew the real situation and didn’t do anything to prevent the coming conflict. They completely neglected the antagonisms and their worsening and basically incited the confrontation instead to work for the elimination of its possible causes. For eight years (2014-2022) they successfully hid Ukrainian massacres of Russian population in Dombass (about 14.000 civilians killed), the disrespect of Minsk agreements by Ukraine and the serious Russians warnings about constant, long-time growing threats of Western powers to the Russian security as a consequence of NATO expansion to the East. They failed to give truthful answers to the fears of RF upon their aggressive policy and warranties for RF security. Contrary to that, they urged Ukraine to provoke RF, armed it, trained its army, send specialized military personnel to help Ukraine prepare for the conflict against RF, financed the coming war and orchestrated media campaign against it.

In the first moment after the start of the conflict many expected that the military operations will end very fast with some new peace agreement and the return of the peace in that region. They believed that the relations between old (USA) and new coming superpowers (RF and China) would be treated seriously by all sides, with responsibility, and resolved without military conflicts and total confrontation, in the best interest of the whole world. But the situation has gone on the opposite side. The conflict is constantly spreading and intensifying and Western countries are every day more involved in it. They are constantly arming Ukraine, financing their political, economic and military survival, giving extreme political support, media coverage, military training and even active participation through mercenaries, military intelligence support and help of sophisticated military experts on the ground and many other means. The world slowly realize that that conflict is far deeper, broader and more complex that it looked in the beginning and that it is run about the supremacy in the world, its organization, financial order, ownership of resources, and everything else. Ukraine is just the battlefield of that confrontation.  

Today, almost eight months after it started, the conflict is omnipresent, has global consequences, brings huge risks for the whole humanity, representing the real threat for the survival of the civilization. It is dramatically changing the international relations, not only military but also geopolitical, political, economic, legal, financial, religious, social and every other. In the current situation it is more then evident that the international laws doesn’t exist, international institution are one-sided and corrupt, antagonisms between two opposed sides, essentially RF and USA, doesn’t diminish and the global peace in the world is in danger. But, on the other side, it is also evident that the unipolar world that existed until recent, led by USA, doesn’t exist anymore. New powers had matured, RF – in first place as military power, and China – economic and financial one. Those two states are defying the supremacy of USA by defending their basic political, economic and other interests. Such policy is attracting every day more countries around them because of their political philosophy and international principles and behavior, their devotion for the “peaceful coexistence” in the international relations instead of oppression. In the same time USA, as the leader of the Western world, has by day less influence in the world affairs and even the countries that followed it from decades are turning to the side of RF and China, hoping to find with them more just international relations, freedom to choose their own way forward without pressures and conditioning and fair, open and mutually useful cooperation.

Nowadays, it is clear that RF is fighting in Ukraine the total war against the Western coalition, but predominantly against USA and Great Britain (GB). Without their support to Ukraine, by inciting confrontation, support in arms, money, military trainings, war high technological and intelligence help, media support and in international institutions, Ukraine probably wouldn’t fight that all or could do it very short time. This “proxy” war is clearly provoked by USA, run primarily in the interest of its global domination with intention to weaken and exhaust RF in order to destroy it, split it apart and seize its huge and numerous natural and other resources. The strategy of USA is to keep RF in war as long as possible, first against Ukraine, until Ukraine lost any war capacity. When Ukraine wouldn’t be anymore capable to resist RF, they will not hesitate to push some other Russian neighbor or “enemy” to fight with it in their cause. That could be Poland, Moldova or even Germany that is rapidly militarizing and it’s totally dependent of USA They search to foam discontent in RF and create through the medias the impression that the problem is with Russia, in first place with its President, and not with USA imperial ambitions. The US strategy is not to directly militarily fight against RF because that carries a risk to eventually loose the war, but to use “proxy” wars, what’s mean other countries to do that. The idea is to keep RF in war and sanctions in order to provoke discontent in RF, incite civil disobedience, disorder and unrests with the aim to depose Vladimir Putin from power and install somebody more benevolent to the interests of the West on his place.

Their current help to Ukraine is not because USA is defending international law, territorial integrity of the sovereign country or such values, but because it serves its war against RF. American retired four stars general Jack Keane, former Vice Chef of Staff of the US army, said to “Fox News TV” on October 7, 2022, that USA paid until that moment 66 billions of USD to Ukraine (for arms, support, trainings etc) for fighting RF instead of US soldiers, which is cheap because it represent just 1,10 % of the USA annual budget. He told that this “investment” in Ukraine is for USA very useful and beside that it avoid the possibility of nuclear war. Moreover, it seems that the huge part of that money is given as credits that Ukraine is supposed to pay after the war (approximately 56 billions USD).

The best evidence that USA is behind the war in Ukraine is the fact that all the moves in the international arena are incited by USA and their first ally, GB. USA and GB are leading in the total war against RF with everything except direct military conflict. They introduced all kind of sanctions against RF and are trying to oblige the whole world to joint to them. In eight months they tightened the economic sanctions against RF eight times. Those sanctions include almost everything, from energy supplies, food, medicaments, fertilizers, industrial products, high technologies, ban of flights, Russian culture, language, media, financial businesses, swift payments, travel restrictions, seize of Russian state and private property abroad, participation of Russian sportsman out of RF etc. They are also waging the media war against RF, all the time accusing it in UN SC and Assembly in relation of different issues, running a regular and constant negative media campaigns, pressuring every country to join to their aggressive policy against RF. It is important to mention that despite their laud and persistent verbal commitment to the international law the sanctions they introduced are illegal because only the UN SC has the power to introduce sanctions to some country and in relation of RF it’s not the case.

The present extreme level of aggression and hate towards RF and its officials and even towards all Russians citizens could be freely named as “Russofobia”. As a Serb, I totally understand and believe that such level of extremist policy of Western countries toward the particular focused enemy in the particular moment is the reality because I witnessed it personally in the case of aggression of the USA and their allies on Serbia in the nineties of the previous century. In that time, “Serbofobia” was on the daily “menu” and was very similar to current “Russofobia”. The violent break out of Yugoslavia from 1991 to 1999 was incited and guided by Western countries. The illegal and unfounded war of USA and their allies in 1999 against primarily Serbia was anticipated by media war against Serbs and run in continuity all the time of the hostilities, even now at some extent. As Russians today, Serbs were demonized, their culpabilities fabricated, they were accused for everything and nothing, the real events and goals distorted and falsified, the truth hidden and events interpreted in the wrong way. It is important to stress that the most potent tools of Western countries in their attempt to conquer the world are media distortion, misuse of facts, falsification and fabrication of events, selective use of laws, corruption of institutions and individuals and all other means that could be useful for them to achieve some precise goal. And such policy will be put in practice against any target country in any moment, without any concern about the truth, facts and arguments and without any shame or regret.

Nowadays, we are learning from USA, GB and their allies how deeply they are committed to international law, inviolability of state borders, how strongly they regret for the killing of civilians and innocent people and insist that the supposed killers are accused and convicted, haw deeply they deplore for the destruction of cities, infrastructure, institutions, including kinder gardens, schools etc. Yes, that’s pity, of course, but that is not because they sincerely mean what they say, but because they search everything they can find or invent to accuse and demonize RF, their actual enemy and opponent. They will use the same strategy against anyone that stands against their ambitions, interests and goals. It is important to remind that they have committed numerous war crimes, even much worse, in many countries in the recent past and they didn’t have any empathy for their victims. Even in Dombass, during 2014 to 2022 they didn’t even mentioned victims of the Ukraine everyday bombing – killed children and civilians, destroyed infrastructure. During their campaign against Serbia and Serbian people  in the nineties they didn’t have any empathy towards Serbs killed, wounded or ethnically cleansed during US aggression followed by their allies on Yugoslavia (1999 and earlier in Croatia and Bosnia). They say today that they don’t recognize the recently held referendums in Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson and the reunification of these territories with RF because they are “unlawful”. Such concern for the international laws is very commendable. But I wonder if it is in accordance to international law to recognize the self – proclamation of “Kosovo independence”, that happen in 2008, territory that is by internal  (Constitution of the Republic of Serbia) and international law (UN SC Resolution 1244) an Autonomous Province of the Republic of Serbia? That happen after their aggression against Yugoslavia (Serbia) in 1999, illegal also, and during the period of rule of the administration of UN (UN SC Resolution 1244), in that Serbian Province, without any referendum, decisions of any legal international institution or Serbia itself (just on proclamation of the Pristina interim local administration). They immediately recognized such” independence” of “Kosova” (separatist name for the Serbian Province Kosovo and Metohija). Moreover, from that moment USA and their allies are pressuring Serbia to recognize a part of its territory and state as independent country. The devotion to the international law of USA and their allies is very doubtful indeed and fully depending of their particular interests, cases or situations. The international law is just the tool in their hands and they are using it in dependence of their interests. It is important to understand that fact because Yugoslavia (Serbia and Serbs) were the first victims of the Western imperialistic/colonial expansion after the fall of the Berlin wall. Since, there were a lot of other victims-Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria and many others. Currently, their victim is Ukraine, tomorrow it can be anyone, if that is in their interest.

Currently, in the attempt to preserve its domination and supremacy in the world affairs, USA is trying to prevent other powers, real or in formation, to endanger their world leadership. In that aim they are in the same time conducting different kinds of open or hidden confrontation with opponents: first with RF, through “proxy” war in Ukraine, then with EU, its supposed ally, but in the same time rival, and with China, its real big adversary and economic rival. Although EU and the majority of the European countries are at least verbally US allies or more correctly under their leadership and control, USA is pressuring EU countries  to follow the policies that are practically destroying them economically, financially and, consequently, politically. The imposition to the EU countries of the obligation to follow their policy of severe sanctions against RF has much worse consequences on EU and European countries than for RF itself. The obligation to send arms to Ukraine, to finance their war and to cut supply of the gas and energy from RF, brought those countries to serious economic crises with real dangers of economic and even political collapse. USA is banning to EU and European countries to trade with RF and is also criticizing their economic ties with China, but in the same time they are increasing their trade with RF and China, through intermediary countries or directly. Even more, they are reselling to EU countries the products from the embargo lists for enormous prices, making huge profits of that and impoverishing EU in the same time. That policy is directed in first place against Germany and is part of their war against RF, because their old geo-strategic assessment is that the economic cooperation of RF and Germany is dangerous for their economic and global interests. The political and economic close cooperation of RF and Germany could be the best union of the two countries where one has energy and the other technology and industry and that’s the reason US run by decades and even longer the policy aimed to prevent their strategic partnership. In the same time, by such policy USA is creating deep dependence of EU countries from it, eroding constantly their independent position and policy and their responsibility for their own nation. The clear evidence of that is the recent sabotage of the North Stream pipeline. Few days ago in Belgrade, Canadian prof. Michel Chossudovsky declared to TV Happy that in legal terms, this sabotage is an act of war against Sweden and Denmark, because it happens in their territorial waters. He affirmed that that act is directed against Germany and performed by USA, which President Joe Bidden publicly admitted the US responsibility for that act. Since Germany, Sweden and Denmark didn’t react, that’s can be considered of a betrayal of their countries interests and in the same time confirm that they are not free and independent countries, capable to conduct the policy in the interest of their citizens. He affirmed that their political elites are under the US rule and fulfilling their interests instead of the interest of their own countries and the people that elected them. The consequences of anti national policies in the whole Europe are every day more evident and, as consequence, there are everyday more protests on the streets of the cities of Europe, searching for the abolition of the policy of sanctions that endanger their lives and economic wellbeing. They start to understand that their interests are damaged and their standard and level of life is drastically decreasing because they are blindly following politics of USA. How that process of contestation of the official politics in many countries in EU and Europe will end is difficult to say. But with the coming of the winter and the lack of energy it is very possible to witness the fall or some governments and changes of regimes. In the most realistic terms, it is to expect that such policies of the total dependence on USA will lose ground and that new political forces would appear, despite economic and financial dependence of the EU from USA.

Relatively to China, it is clear that its economic might, its huge possibilities in every field of human development, its financial and recently every day stronger military capabilities, make from China the biggest rival and opponent of USA. Currently, China is “in waiting” to come to the agenda of USA for all kind of subversions. Occasionaly, USA is provoking it but doesn’t have might to fight in the same time RF and China. In the meantime China is progressing every day more and the time is not working for USA, which is loosing the race with China, in first place economic and financial. It is evident that USA is deeply involved in Ukraine conflict and has internal problems, including the imminent danger of the possible results of the next mid-term election. If Democrats lose those elections, that can bring serious changes in their global agenda and consequently foreign policy. If that happen, perhaps China could avoid serious confrontation with USA. If not, it should be prepared for the confrontation wits US in the near future that could probably start around Taiwan issue.

The most important tool in that puzzle is USA because it pulls the strings of all events, fuel the conflict and can stop it. Because of that it is important to say that precisely in USA the things can change in the very near future. If that happens, that can help the world to go out from the impasse in which the current situation is now. I am referring to the mid-term elections for the House of the representatives in USA, to be held on November 8, 2022, together with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Since the actual political leadership (Democrats) has a thin majority in both bodies and Democrats lost most of the support in the country it is very likely that the Republican Party can win those elections. If that happen, the agenda of USA, oriented to international and global issues, including the unconditional support to Ukraine, will certainly change, at least to certain degree. The eventual new majority, Republican one, if they win, already announced the changes in the internal and external policy. In first place they plan to reduce US support to Ukraine, in arms, finances and any other, and turn, in first place, to the internal problems. They speak that they will launch the initiative for the impeachment of the actual President Joe Bidden and for the indictment of his son for corruption and criminal activities, partly in Ukraine. If that happens, Ukraine will lose the main support for the continuation of the conflict that could open the way for its end and some peaceful solution of the war that would normalize the whole global situation. But it is necessary to be very cautious about such predictions. If Democrats lose the majority, their global agenda would be endangered especially if that will be followed by the lost of the presidential elections in USA in 2024, and all their plans for the world changes, so-called “big reset” could be eroded and null. Having that in mind, it is not an unfounded belief that those elections could be cancelled or postponed because of some external or internal reason, in order to buy some additional time, secured on that way, to recuperate and perhaps stay on power. It remains to be seen what will happen in the coming days. There is also a lot of possible setback that could happen until 2024, for the same reasons.

G20 Bali summit that is supposed to be held on November 15-16 2022, immediately after US mid-term elections, could be an opportunity for some peace initiatives but that partly depends of the result of those elections. Indonesia invited RF President Putin to the Summit, despite of the Western countries demand to not invite him. In this moment Vladimir Putin hasn’t confirmed his participation. But, if he come, it would be interesting to see what would be the reaction and the response of Western countries to that, especially if the Republicans win the mid-time elections.

For the lasting peace in Europe and in the world it is necessary to resolve not only the conflict in Ukraine but also global security issues and agree about the new world order based on equality and “peaceful cooperation of sovereign and independent states”, free of colonial oppression, pressures, threats, inequality, privileges, double standards and obtrusions. The first step could be the changes in the US political leadership and the shift of its policy from global dominance to the policy of national interest and the cooperation with the rest of the world based on equality, sovereignty, freedom and solidarity. If that happen, the conflict in Ukraine will became past.

 


 


 

冲突的形成与影响

2022年2月24日,俄罗斯联邦在乌克兰开展特别军事行动后,国际社会都将注意力转向了这场冲突,同时国际关系日益相互关联,并受到极大的影响。美国在冲突爆发前已几次预测了其必然性,但对世界绝大多数国家来说,它令人感到非常意外。现在已经很清楚,美国及其媒体机构有意隐瞒了围绕乌克兰的严重形势,并将世界其他国家的注意力转移到其他问题上。因此,世界上的大多数国家不知道那里到底发生了什么。美国控制下的世界媒体始终忽视相关的事件、新闻、立场和警告,尤其是来自俄罗斯的声音。如果其他国家的报道不符合它们的利益和对世界的看法,它们也会对其不予理睬。结果就是只有西方国家了解真实情况,可它们并没有采取任何措施来阻止即将到来的冲突。它们全然不顾对抗及其不断恶化的局势,实际上,它们非但没有努力消除造成冲突的可能根源,而是在煽动对抗。8年来(2014-2022年),它们成功地掩盖了乌克兰在顿巴斯对俄罗斯人的屠杀(大约14000名平民死亡)、乌克兰对明斯克协议的不尊重,以及俄罗斯针对西方大国通过北约东扩给俄罗斯安全构成的持续、长期威胁所发出的严重警告。对于它们咄咄逼人的政策和俄罗斯对自身安全保障的担忧,它们没有做出如实的回答。相反,它们敦促乌克兰挑衅俄罗斯,对乌克兰进行武装援助,训练其军队,派遣专门的军事人员帮助其做好与俄罗斯发生冲突的准备,还为即将到来的战争提供资金,并策划了针对俄罗斯的媒体攻击。

在冲突刚开始时,许多人都预计军事行动将很快结束,双方会达成一些新的和平协议,从而恢复该地区的和平。他们认为,所有各方都将认真对待老的(美国)与新兴超级大国(俄罗斯和中国)之间的关系,并在没有军事冲突和全面对抗的情况下负责任地解决出现的问题,因为这符合全世界的最佳利益。可是情况却朝着相反的方向发展。冲突不断蔓延和加剧,西方国家每天都越来越多地卷入其中。它们一直在武装乌克兰,为其政治、经济和军事生存提供资金,并给予其极端的政治支持、媒体报道和军事训练,甚至还通过雇佣军、军事情报援助和经验丰富的军事专家现场指导等多种方式积极参与其中。世界渐渐意识到,这场冲突比一开始以为的更深、更广、更复杂,实际上它触及世界的权威地位、组织、金融秩序、资源所有权以及其他所有一切。乌克兰只是对抗的战场而已。

现在,冲突已经持续了近八个月,但仍无处不在,并且造成了全球性后果,给整个人类带来巨大风险,对文明的生存也显示出真正威胁。它正在戏剧性地改变国际关系,不仅是军事关系,而且是地缘政治、政治、经济、法律、金融、宗教、社会和其他方面的关系。在当前的情况下,很显然,国际法已不存在,国际机构是片面的和腐败的,对立双方,实质上就是俄罗斯和美国,之间的对抗情绪丝毫没有减弱,世界和平处于危险的境地。但另一方面,以美国为首的单极世界也已不复存在,这一点也很明显。新兴大国已经成熟——俄罗斯在军事方面,中国在经济和金融方面。这两个国家通过捍卫其基本政治、经济和其他利益,对美国的霸权地位发起挑战。由于它们所采取的政治哲学、国际原则和行为,以及它们致力于国际关系中的“和平共处”而非压迫,它们的政策每天都在吸引更多的国家。与此同时,美国作为西方世界的领导者,在世界事务中的影响力日渐减弱,甚至几十年来一直追随它的国家也开始选择站在俄罗斯和中国一边,希望与它们建立更公正的国际关系,不受压力和限制地自由选择自己的发展道路,实现彼此间公平、开放和互利的合作。

 

冲突的本质:俄国与美西方的对抗

现在,很清楚,俄罗斯正在乌克兰与西方联盟展开全面战争,不过主要是与美国和英国的战争。如果没有它们对乌克兰的支持,包括煽动对抗、武器支持、在资金、军事训练、高科技作战技术和情报方面的帮助、媒体声援以及国际机构的参与,乌克兰很可能不会应战,或者战争会在很短的时间结束。这场“代理人”战争显然是由美国挑起的,主要是为了其全球统治的利益,通过摧毁、分裂和攫取俄罗斯巨大而众多的自然资源和其他资源,从而达到削弱和消耗俄罗斯的目的。美国的战略就是尽可能长时间地使俄罗斯处于战争状态,首先是针对乌克兰,直至乌克兰失去任何作战能力。在乌克兰不再有能力抵抗俄罗斯后,它会毫不犹豫地推动俄罗斯的其他邻国或“敌人”与之发起战争。这样的国家可能是波兰、摩尔多瓦,甚至正在迅速军事化的德国,总之就是完全依赖美国的国家。它还会试图在俄罗斯国内制造不满情绪,并通过媒体散播这样的印象:问题出在俄罗斯,首先是其总统,而不是美国的帝国野心。美国的战略不是直接与俄罗斯发生军事对抗,因为这会冒最终战争失败的风险,而是采用“代理人”战争,即让其他国家这么做。它这样做就是要让俄罗斯继续处于战争和制裁状态,激起俄罗斯人的不满情绪,煽动公民抗议、动乱,进而制造出混乱和无序的局面,目的是推翻弗拉基米尔·普京的权力,并安插一个对西方利益更有益的人取而代之。

美国现在对乌克兰的援助并不是因为它在捍卫国际法、主权国家的领土完整以及此类价值观,而是因为乌克兰在为其对抗俄罗斯的战争服务。2022年10月7日,美国前陆军副参谋长、退役的四星上将杰克·基恩告诉福克斯新闻电视台,截至当时,美国为了帮助乌克兰与俄罗斯作战,已经为其花费了660亿美元(用于武器、援助、训练等),但相较于美国士兵亲自上战场,这很便宜,因为它只占了美国年度预算的1.10%。他还说,在乌克兰的这种“投资”对美国非常有益,同时它还避免了核战争的可能性。而且,这笔钱的很大一部分似乎还是乌克兰在战后应当偿还的贷款(约560亿美元)。

美国是乌克兰战争幕后黑手的最好证据是,国际舞台上的所有举动都是由美国及其第一盟友英国鼓动的。除了没有直接参与军事冲突,在与俄罗斯的全面战争中,美国和英国始终处于最重要的地位。它们对俄罗斯实施了各种制裁,并试图要求全世界都与它们联手。在8个月的时间里,它们对俄罗斯采取了8次经济制裁。这些制裁几乎包括了方方面面,涉及能源供应、食品、药物、化肥、工业产品、高科技、禁止航班、俄罗斯文化、语言、媒体、金融企业、SWIFT支付、旅行限制、没收俄罗斯境外的国家和私人财产、俄罗斯运动员不得代表俄罗斯参赛等。它们还发起了针对俄罗斯的媒体战争,并一直在联合国安理会和联合国大会上就不同问题谴责俄罗斯,持续不断地通过媒体对俄罗斯进行负面宣传,向每个国家施压,要求它们都加入其针对俄罗斯的咄咄逼人的做法。值得一提的是,尽管它们口头上对国际法大加赞扬并始终承诺坚决遵守,但它们实施的制裁却是非法的,因为只有联合国安理会有权对某些国家实施制裁,而就俄罗斯来说,情况并非如此。

目前对俄罗斯及其官员,甚至对所有俄罗斯公民的极端挑衅和仇恨程度可以直截了当地称为“恐俄症”。作为一名塞尔维亚人,我完全了解并相信,西方国家在特定时刻针对重点聚焦的敌人采取极端政策是真实存在的,因为我亲自见证了上世纪90年代美国及其盟友对塞尔维亚的侵略。当时,“恐塞症”出现在每天的“菜单”上,与现在的“恐俄症”非常相似。1991年至1999年,南斯拉夫爆发的暴力活动也是由西方国家煽动和引导的。1999年,美国及其盟友对塞尔维亚发起的非法且毫无根据的战争被媒体认为主要是针对塞尔维亚人的,而且这样的敌对行动持续了下来,甚至今天在一定程度上仍然存在。就像现在的俄罗斯人一样,塞族人被妖魔化,他们背负着被捏造的罪责,所做的一切都遭到指控,而事件的真实性和目的被歪曲和篡改,真相被隐瞒,发生的事情也被错误地解读。必须强调的是,西方国家试图征服世界的最有力的工具就是媒体的歪曲报道、滥用事实、伪造或捏造事件、选择性地使用法律、贿赂相关机构和个人以及所有其他可能有助于它们实现某个精确目标的手段。这一政策会在任何时候针对任何目标国家实施,丝毫不担心真相、事实和争议,也丝毫不感到羞耻和懊悔。

 

冲突、霸权及其他

如今,我们可以从美国、英国及其盟友那里看出,它们对国际法、国家边界的不可侵犯性有着怎样深刻的承诺,它们对杀害平民和无辜的人有着怎样强烈的痛惜,它们对凶手必须受到指控和定罪有着怎样坚定的支持,它们对城市、基础设施和包括幼儿园、学校在内的机构遭到破坏有着怎样公开的谴责。是的,这的确很遗憾,因为它们的表述并非真心实意,因为它们搜罗了它们能找到或杜撰的一切来指控和妖魔化它们视为真正敌人和对手的俄罗斯。它们也会使用同样的策略来对付任何与它们的野心、利益或目标相违背的国家。有必要提醒的是,近年来它们在许多国家犯下了无数更恶劣的战争罪行,而且它们对受害者毫无怜悯之心。即使是在顿巴斯,在2014年至2022年期间,它们甚至没有提到乌克兰日常轰炸的受害者——包括杀害的儿童和平民,以及摧毁的基础设施。在90年代对塞尔维亚和塞尔维亚人民发动的战争中,它们对在美国及其盟国侵略南斯拉夫(1999年以及更早对克罗地亚和波斯尼亚的入侵)期间被杀害、受伤或者遭到种族清洗的塞尔维亚人没有表现出一点同情心。它们现在表示,它们不承认最近在卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热和赫尔松举行的公投以及这些领土与俄罗斯的统一,因为这些都是“非法的”。这种对国际法的关切是非常值得称赞的。但我想知道,承认2008年的“科索沃独立”的自我宣告是否符合国际法,因为无论是根据塞尔维亚共和国的国内法(塞尔维亚共和国宪法)还是根据国际法(联合国安理会第1244号决议),该领土都是塞尔维亚共和国的自治省?这件事发生在1999年它们对南斯拉夫(塞尔维亚)的侵略之后——这次侵略也是非法的,在联合国行政机构管理期间(根据联合国安理会第1244号决议)。在塞尔维亚的这个省,没有任何形式的公民投票,没有任何来自合法的国际机构或塞尔维亚政府自身的决定,只是由普里什蒂纳临时地方行政当局宣布的。但是它们立即承认了“科索沃”(这是塞尔维亚的科索沃和梅托希亚省的分离主义给出的名称)的“独立”。而且,从那一刻开始,美国及其盟友就开始向塞尔维亚施压,要求其承认其领土和国家的一部分为独立国家。所以,美国及其盟友对国际法的承诺确实令人怀疑,因为它完全取决于它们的特殊利益、情况或所处的形势。国际法不过是它们手中的工具,它们会根据自己的利益利用它。了解这一事实非常重要,因为南斯拉夫(塞尔维亚和塞尔维亚人)是柏林墙倒塌后西方帝国主义/殖民扩张的第一个受害者。自此以后,伊拉克、利比亚、阿富汗、叙利亚和许多其他国家也都成为了受害者。今天它们的受害者是乌克兰,明天只要符合它们的利益,任何国家都可能是下一个受害者。

目前,为了保持其在国际事务中的统治和霸权地位,美国正试图阻止其他国家,无论是真正存在的还是正在形成的,危及其世界领导地位。为此,它们同时与对手展开不同类型的公开或隐藏的对抗:首先是与俄罗斯,借助乌克兰这一“代理人”战争,然后是与欧盟,即其所谓的盟友,但同时也是竞争对手,还有就是与中国,这是其真正的大对手,也是经济方面的竞争对手。尽管欧盟和大多数欧洲国家至少在口头上是美国的盟友,或者更准确地说,是在它的领导和控制下,但美国正在向欧盟国家施压,要求它们遵循实际上会在经济、金融和政治上摧毁它们的政策。要求欧盟国家执行其对俄罗斯的严厉制裁政策,这对欧盟和欧洲国家造成的后果要比对俄罗斯严重得多。要求它们承担向乌克兰运送武器、资助战争以及切断俄罗斯天然气和能源供应的责任,使这些国家遭遇了严重的经济危机,并面临着经济甚至政治崩溃的真正危险。美国禁止欧盟和欧洲国家与俄罗斯有贸易往来,并批评它们与中国的经济关系,但与此同时,它自己却正在通过中间国家或直接增加与俄罗斯和中国的贸易。更有甚者,它居然以高价将禁运清单上的产品转售给欧盟国家,从中赚取巨额利润,同时也使欧盟陷入贫困。这一做法首先是针对德国的,也是其对抗俄罗斯战争的一部分,因为它之前的地缘战略评估认为,俄罗斯和德国的经济合作对其经济和全球利益是危险的。事实上,俄罗斯和德国在政治和经济上的密切合作对两国来说可能是最好的组合,因为它们一个拥有能源,另一个拥有技术和工业,这也就是美国几十年来甚至在更长时间里采取旨在阻止两国缔结战略伙伴关系的政策的原因。同时,美国的这一政策造成了欧盟国家对其的严重依赖,并且不断侵蚀它们的独立地位和政策,以及它们对自己国家应当肩负的责任。这方面最明显的证据就是最近对北溪管道的破坏。几天前,在贝尔格莱德,加拿大教授米歇尔·乔苏多夫斯基向快乐电视台宣布,从法律上讲,这一破坏行为是针对瑞典和丹麦的战争行为,因为它发生在它们的领海内。他断言,这一行为是针对德国的,是由美国布署的,因为美国总统乔·拜登公开承认美国对这一行为负责。由于德国、瑞典和丹麦没有做出反应,这可以被视为对其国家利益的背叛,同时也证实了它们不是自由和独立的国家,没有能力为其公民的利益采取措施。他还肯定,这些国家的政治精英们已处于美国的统治之下,追求的是其自身利益的实现,而不是它们的国家和选举他们的人民的利益。现在,整个欧洲反国家政策的后果已日益显现,欧洲各城市的街头每天都有越来越多的抗议活动,要求废除危及他们生活和经济福祉的制裁政策。他们开始意识到,由于盲目追随美国政治,他们自身的利益受到损害,生活水平急剧下降。欧盟和欧洲许多国家官场的政治角逐过程将如何结束还很难说。不过随着冬季的到来和能源的缺乏,见证一些政府的垮台和一些政权的更迭是很有可能的。从最现实的角度看,尽管欧盟在经济和金融上仍需依赖美国,但这种对美国完全依赖的政策会松动,新的政治力量也将出现。

对中国来说,很明显,中国的经济实力、人类发展各个领域的巨大潜力、金融和近年来日益增强的军事能力,使其成为美国最大的竞争对手和政策阻止者。目前,中国正在“等待”美国提出各种颠覆性的议程。偶尔,美国会挑衅中国,但它没有可能与俄罗斯和中国同时作战。与此同时,中国每天都在发展,时间对美国是不利的,因为与中国在经济和金融方面的竞争中美国已处于失利状态。显而易见的是,美国现在深陷乌克兰冲突,又存在内部问题,包括即将到来的中期选举结果可能造成的迫在眉睫的危险。如果民主党在选举中失利,这会令其全球议程和外交政策发生重大变化。如果出现这种情况,或许中国可以避免与美国发生严重对抗。如果没有,那中国就应当为不久的将来可能围绕台湾问题与美国展开的对抗做好准备。

 
冲突的变量

在当下令人费解的局势中,美国扮演着最重要的角色,因为它掌控着一切,它既可以推动冲突,也可以阻止冲突。正因为如此,很重要的一点是,美国国内的情况可能在不久的将来发生变化。果真这样的话,这将有助于世界走出目前的僵局。我指的是将于2022年11月8日举行的美国众议院中期选举,以及参议院100个席位中35个席位的改选。由于现在实际的政治领导层(民主党)在两个机构中都只占微弱多数,因此如果民主党在全国失去了大部分支持,共和党很有可能赢得这些选举。如果出现这种情况,美国针对国际和全球问题的议程,包括对乌克兰的无条件支持,肯定会发生变化,至少在一定程度上会发生变化。因为如果共和党最终成为新的多数党,它已经宣布了内、外部政策的改变。首先,它计划减少美国在武器、财政和其他方面对乌克兰的支持,同时转向解决国内问题。它表示,它将发起弹劾现任总统乔·拜登的倡议,起诉他儿子涉嫌的受贿和犯罪活动,部分与乌克兰有关。果真如此的话,乌克兰将失去持续冲突的主要支持,这可能为冲突的结束和战争的和平解决开辟道路,从而使全球局势正常化。但是对这些预测有必要保持非常谨慎的态度。如果民主党人失去多数,他们的全球议程将受到威胁,特别是如果他们在2024年的美国总统选举中失利,那么他们对世界变化的所有计划,即所谓的“大重置”,可能会被削弱直至失效。考虑到这一点,人们并非毫无根据地认为,这些选举可能会因为一些外部或内部原因而被取消或推迟,目的是争取更多的时间,从而保全自己,挽回损失并继续执政。因此未来几天会发生什么还有待观察。而且出于同样的原因,在2024年之前,还有可能出现许多阻碍。

美国中期选举后不久,二十国集团巴厘岛峰会将在2022年11月15日至16日举行。这可能是提出一些和平倡议的机会,但在一定程度上它将取决于选举的结果。印度尼西亚邀请了俄罗斯总统普京参加峰会,尽管西方国家提出不要邀请他。目前,弗拉基米尔·普京还没有确认是否参会。但是,如果他参加了,看看西方国家对此会有怎样的反应是很有趣的一件事,特别是如果共和党在中期选举中获胜的话。

为了欧洲和世界的持久和平,不仅必须解决乌克兰冲突,而且还要解决全球安全问题,并在平等和“主权和独立国家和平合作”基础上建立世界新秩序达成一致,从而使各个国家都不再遭受殖民压迫、压力、威胁、不平等、特权、双重标准和侵犯。首先可能是要改变美国的政治领导层,将其政策从占据全球主导地位转变为考虑国家利益,并在平等、主权、自由和团结的基础上与世界其他国家展开合作。如果能够做到,乌克兰冲突就会成为历史。