随着可再生能源和节能照明成本的下降，去中心化的新能源技术愈发成为一个具有吸引力和经济上可行的电气化解决方案
文I本刊记者 潘心怡 受访者I大卫·贝纳塞拉夫，国际能源署中国项目官员；布伦特·华纳，国际能源署能源分析师；迈克尔·沃龙德，国际能源署能源投资分析师 翻译I潘心怡
电力短缺是制约非洲发展的难题，尤其是对撒哈拉以南非洲地区来说，发展电力迫在眉睫。2017年10月19日，国际能源署(IEA)发布了一份名为《能源获取展望2017》的报告。报告称，2014之后，撒哈拉以南非洲地区电气化增速首次超过了人口增长。非洲电力产业前景如何？面临何种风险与挑战？中国企业将扮演何种角色？⋯⋯带着种种疑问，《中国投资》对国际能源署进行了采访。
中国项目的吸引力
《中国投资》：数据显示，中国企业作为撒哈拉以南非洲国家的主要承包商，贡献了三分之一的电力。中国企业具有什么样的特点，您认为这些企业在非洲电力市场中的定位是什么？这对于非洲电力产业意味着什么？
国际能源署：一般来说，在中国政府的支持下，通过打出中国发展援助（贷款）、政府驱动的投资和股权投资的组合拳，中国企业提供的是针对发电能力和输配电(T&D)的综合解决方案。这些企业提供的服务重点为“一站式交钥匙服务”。大部分工厂都有承担整个项目周期的能力，包括初期研究和设计，设备调试，建设，运营和维护（O&M）。由于和中非两方银行均有紧密联系，这些企业和银行达成了包括债务管理在内的融资协议。尽管大多数项目都是通过工程总承包合同（EPC）进行的，但也会用其他模式，比如建设-经营-转让(BOT)和公私合营（PPP）模式，这些项目大多由国有企业承担。
与此同时，中国企业在境外具有比较优势，多个因素使中国在撒哈拉以南非洲的电力项目对非洲政府具有吸引力。受到中国贷款的有力支持，中国企业建造的电厂的成本往往较低。
中国建造的电力项目增加了当地的发电量和电网容量，提高了用以支持经济发展的电力供应，但同时也给非洲政府带来了地方性挑战，特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲经济增长放缓的潜在环境下。
非洲国家如何处理与中国利益相关方的关系，以最终实现发电和配电系统的最大化，这是一个有待解决的问题。运营和维护服务要到位，则需相应的技术，而当地技术的缺乏可能会让外国公司建立的发电厂在可持续性上大打折扣。在地区的能力建设上还需投入更多的资源，以开发更强有力的监管框架，其中包括简化和加速独立发电厂和购电协议的流程上。培训当地的技术人员对于稳定工厂的效率和表现至关重要，同时也有助于这些国家建立一个强大的维修服务业，以确保工厂的可持续发展并支持更广阔的行业发展。
“现收现付”创新模式
《中国投资》：非洲电力市场的投资热情仍在继续，然而许多投资对改善现状的意义不大，在投资非洲的电力市场中投资者可能需要解决哪些棘手的问题?
国际能源署：对于有扶持政策——如拍卖能够降低融资成本的长期电力购买协议——的一些撒哈拉以南非洲国家来说，拥有扶持政策加上可再生能源技术价格更加合理，这些国家的投资机会正在增多。
然而，整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区在电力行业的投资总额中所占的比例不足2%，尽管该地区拥有世界人口总数的15%以及全球无电人口的55%。这种投资不足在很大程度上归咎于民营投资商业模式带来的风险，民营投资者出售电力的情况往往受限于国有公共事业的财务状况。在一些市场中，电力管制导致电力价格较低，出售电力入不敷出，同时缺乏监管的基础架构和实践导致了较高的操作损失。因此，面临此类挑战的供电公司往往不愿在亏本出售的情况下购买电力，同时也不愿就扩大和升级电网进行固定投资。
据说，在一些撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家，有了电子支付技术的支持，企业家们已经开始倡导创新型的“现收现付”金融模式。这使得没有接入电网的家庭能够通过太阳能电池板、电池和高效能的电器设备的组合来获得电力服务。
《中国投资》：发达国家对非洲电力市场也非常感兴趣，如今该市场中投资者之间的竞争较为激烈，这会对市场带来什么影响？
国际能源署：改善民营投资者的风险环境，有助于吸引国际和国内新的资金来源，带来更大的竞争，降低新的电力行业投资的总成本。
与此同时，一些公共金融机构正在提供一揽子咨询和融资方案，包括购买担保等措施，目的是进一步改善撒哈拉以南非洲市场的投资风险状况。
对于增加撒哈拉以南非洲国家的发展动力来说，电力行业投资在制度和监管框架上的持续现代化至关重要。与此同时，重要的一点是，这些投资有助于实现经济发展、能源安全、可及性和可持续发展的地方目标。
潜力和挑战
《中国投资》：尽管非洲的电力基础设施薄弱，但非洲有各种各样的电力资源，这些资源丰富且自给自足。非洲开发新能源的潜力和挑战是什么?
国际能源署：潜力方面，许多非洲国家蕴藏着丰富的能源资源，有待发掘的可再生能源更是巨大，如非洲中部和东部显著的水能资源潜力，非洲众多地区风能发展潜力巨大，整个非洲的太阳能资源都相当丰富，此外还有东非大裂谷的地热资源。
非洲正越来越多地利用其可再生能源，尤其是水力发电。自2012年以来，可再生能源占据了撒哈拉以南非洲新能源来源的70%，主要由水力发电（埃塞俄比亚、喀麦隆）和地热（肯尼亚）构成。
随着可再生能源和节能照明成本的下降，去中心化的新能源技术愈发成为一个具有吸引力和经济上可行的电气化解决方案。2016年，约有200万人通过太阳能户用系统获得了电力，这一数字估计将会继续增加。
非洲出现了家庭可负担的新商业模式，即基于移动支付的金融模式，加上非洲移动电话的普及，刺激了对能源的需求。
挑战方面，融资困难和对管理不善的担忧常常被认为是投资非洲大陆的主要制约因素。能源行业需要吸引大量的投资，同时需要管理大量的流动资金，上述制约因素因此成为非洲能源行业面临的关键问题。
这对一些人口密度低的地区挑战尤甚，人口密度低导致基础设施成本增加，而低质量的电力供应减少了公共收入（非缴付），从而进一步限制了融资的可能性。
《中国投资》：对非洲主要的电力发展国家来说，未来发展的方向是什么?
国际能源署：如果没有可负担得起的电力和大范围的电力供应，没有一个国家能够脱离贫困走向富裕。电气化战略应该是全面的，应为满足实现家庭电气化目标的计划，同时考虑到其他发展目标，并利用能源供应刺激经济活动。
促进农村电力供应方面，应当为非电网投资创造合适的条件，并为之后的去中心化电力解决方案提供条件。
更深层次的区域合作将促进新的大规模发电和输电项目（特别是水力发电），并进一步扩大跨境电力贸易。
实施清晰和始终如一的政策，以鼓励广泛的解决方案、金融流动和商业模式，避免对新进入者设置障碍。应当努力避免政府和民营投资之间的冲突。（编辑：杨海霞）
Renewables Fuel African Electrification
Pan XinYi, China Investment；Interviewees: David BÉNAZÉRAF, The International Energy Agency Programme Officer for China；Brent WARNER, The International Energy Agency Energy Analyst；Michael WALDRON, The International Energy Agency Energy Investment Analyst
Power shortage has become a recognized block that critically hobbled Africa's development, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the need of developing power is a pressing issue. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report named Energy Access Outlook 2017 on 19 October 2017. According to it, there is for the first time a positive trend in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification efforts have been outpacing population growth since 2014. In order to figure out where Africa energy industry is now and where it will be, China Investment did an interview with IEA.
China Investment: Data showed that Chinese companies have contributed a third of power capacity as the main contractors in Sub Saharan African countries. What features do Chinese companies carry and what role do they play in the African electricity market? What does this mean to the African electric power industry?
IEA: Generally with Chinese government support, Chinese companies provide integrated solutions in power generation capacity and in transmission and distribution (T&D) through a combination of Chinese development assistance (loans), government-driven investment and equity investment. They provide services centred on turnkey project delivery. For most plants, they have the capacity to undertake the whole project cycle: preliminary studies and design, equipment commissioning, construction, and operations and maintenance (O&M). By having close ties with governments both in China and Africa, they also facilitate financial agreements with banks for funding, including debt management. Although most projects are carried out through EPC contracts, other models such as build–operate–transfer (BOT) and public–private partnerships (PPPs) can also be used. Projects are mostly undertaken by national-level SOEs.
At the same time as Chinese companies benefit from comparative advantages outside of China, several factors make Chinese power projects in sub-Saharan Africa attractive to African governments. Costs of power plants built by Chinese companies tend to be lower, strongly supported by Chinese loans.
While increasing generation and grid capacities, and supporting electricity access for economic development, Chinese-built power projects also raise local challenges for African governments, especially in the potential context of slowing economic expansion in sub-Saharan Africa.
How African countries can manage relations with Chinese stakeholders to ultimately maximise the generation and distribution systems is a pending question. The lack of local skills needed to put operation and maintenance services in place can compromise the sustainability of power plants built by foreign companies. More resources have to be spent on capacity building in the region to develop stronger regulatory frameworks, including streamlining and speeding up the IPP and PPA processes. Training of local technicians is essential to maintain efficiency and performance of plants as well as to help countries build a strong service industry for maintenance, ensuring plant sustainability and supporting broader industrial development.
China Investment：Investment enthusiasm continuing, but many investments do little to promote the situation significantly; What difficult issues do the investors may have to tackle?
IEA: Greater affordability of renewable technologies, combined with supportive policies, such as auctions for long-term power purchase agreements that help bring down financing costs, is expanding investment opportunities in some sub-Saharan African countries with supportive enabling conditions.
However, the sub-Saharan Africa region overall accounts for less than 2% of electricity sector investment despite having 15% of the global population and 55% of the world’s population without access to electricity. This under-investment stems in large part due to risky business model for private investors for selling power and often constrained financial positions of state-owned utilities. In some markets, low regulated power prices have contributed to a mismatch between revenues and costs and monitoring infrastructure and practices are often inadequate to stem high operational losses. As a result, distribution companies facing such challenges are often reluctant to procure power to be sold at a loss as well as undertake fixed investments to expand and upgrade the grid.
That said, in some sub-Saharan African countries, entrepreneurs have pioneered innovative pay-as-you-go financing schemes, enabled by digital payment technologies. This enables households not connected to the grid to have access to electricity services from a combination of solar panels, batteries, and efficient appliances.
China Investment: An increasing number of investors are becoming interested in the African electricity market, and the game and competitions among the investors are quite fierce now. What effect will it bring to the market?
IEA: Improved risk environments for private investors can help to attract new sources of capital, both international and domestic, introduce greater competition and reduce the overall costs of new power sector investments.
At the same time, some public financial institutions are providing advisory and financing packages, including measures such as purchase guarantees, that aim to further improve the risk profile of investments in sub-Saharan African markets.
Continued modernization of the institutional and regulatory frameworks for power sector investments in sub-Saharan African countries is crucial to increase momentum. Moreover, it is important that investments contribute to meeting local objectives for economic development, energy security and access, and sustainability.
China Investment: Despite the fact of a weak foundation in Africa’s electricity infrastructure, Africa has various types of power generation resources, which are abundant and sufficient for self-sufficiency. What are the potentials and challenges for Africa to develop new energy sources?
IEA: In the way of potentials, many African countries are well-endowed with energy resources and huge renewable resources remain unexploited: significant hydropower potential in Central and East Africa, strong wind potential in many parts of Africa, high solar potential across all of Africa and geothermal in the East African Rift Valley.
The region is increasingly tapping into its renewable energy potential, especially hydropower. Since 2012, renewable have been the source of 70% of new access in sub-Saharan Africa, led mainly by hydro (in Ethiopia, Cameroon) and geothermal (mainly Kenya).
Cost reductions in renewables and energy efficient lighting are making decentralized renewable technologies an increasingly attractive and affordable electrification solution. In 2016, an estimated 2 million people gained access through solar home systems, a share which is expected to increase.
New business models are emerging in Africa that tap into the widespread availability of mobile phones to facilitate energy access, along with financing models based on mobile payments mean that households can afford these systems.
In the way of challenges, difficulties in financing and concerns regarding poor governance are often cited as main constraints to invest in the continent. This is a key issue for the energy sector because it needs to attract vast sums of investment and to manage large financial flows.
This is particularly challenging in areas where low population density increases infrastructure costs and poor quality grid-based supply reduces utility revenues (non-payment), constraining further the availability of finance for investment.
China Investment: For the leading African countries in electricity development, what is the direction of future development?
IEA: No country has gone from poverty to prosperity without making electricity affordable and available in bulk. Electrification strategies should be holistic, with plans to meet the targets for household electrification taking into account other development goals and opportunities to use energy access to stimulate economic activity.
Create suitable conditions for off-grid investment and make provision for subsequent connection of decentralised solutions to the grid to advance rural electricity access.
Deeper regional co-operation facilitates new large-scale power generation and transmission projects (particularly hydropower) and enables a further expansion in cross-border electricity trade.
Implement clear and consistent policies to encourage wide range of solutions, financial streams and business models, avoiding barriers to new entrants. Efforts by the government and by the private sector are not in conflict.