非洲城市化：挑战与机遇

“目前，非洲城市在快速发展中面临着许多挑战，但每一项挑战都代表着一个投资机会，它们可以引领非洲大陆走上可持续发展的道路。” 在接受《中国投资》专访时，联合国人居署非洲区域办事处主任Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza告诉记者。

由于发展中遇到的挑战以及国内融资的局限性，外国直接投资（FDI）正在非洲成为一种新趋势。

Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza说，“非洲对外国投资的需求非常明显的，特别是在一些重点行业，比如房地产、废弃物管理、食品生产和加工、交通运输、制造业、可再生能源、电信和新技术等。”

非洲城市人口将占世界的20%

《中国投资》：近年来，非洲的城市发展速度如何？整体呈现出怎样的特点？您预计，未来非洲城市发展的趋势是怎样的？

 Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza：近几十年来，城市化已成为人类居住发展的重要趋势之一，而且未来所有发展中国家仍将继续受到城市人口激增的影响，非洲当然不会在这一新趋势中掉队。20世纪50年代，非洲大陆的城市化率只有15%，在2010年就飙升至40%，并且预计到2050年将达到56%。非洲城市居民人口将从2015年的4.71亿增至2050年的13.3亿，增幅近三倍。到那时，非洲大陆的城市人口将占到世界城市人口的五分之一，会使地区格局发生极大改变，同时也对政策制定者们利用城市化实现国家的可持续和包容性增长与发展提出了挑战。从图1中可以清晰地看到，到2050年，大多数非洲国家一半以上的人口将居住在城市或城市地区。

随着城市化速度的加快，一些非洲城市的人口已经在成倍增长。表1列出了一些非洲大陆发展最迅速的城市。根据预测，到2035年，非洲大陆会有5个城市进入特大城市的行列（特大城市是指超过1000万居民的城市）。

⬆图1  非洲的城市化趋势

城市高效发展受到束缚

《中国投资》：目前，非洲城市发展中存在哪些问题和挑战？

Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza：城市对国家发展至关重要。按照传统观点，没有哪个发达国家能在不实现城市化特别是可持续城市化的前提下，就使国家实现了整体发展和繁荣。大多数国家的财富都是靠城市积累起来的。生产型城市是经济发展的引擎，一些重点产业已经取代了生产效率低下的农业，实现了工业制造领域生产率的高速增长。非洲的城市化道路遇到了一些挑战，束缚了其经济的高效发展，急需投资来予以应对。非洲城市面临的最主要也是最常见的挑战有：

一是冲突导致的迁移。在北非和西非，长期冲突以及恐怖分子、暴力极端分子和激进组织活动的加剧，导致越来越多国家的人民不得不离开自己的家园，重新寻找栖身之地，比如，利比亚（64,000名难民和寻求庇护者；179,400名国内无家可归者）、索马里（流离失所的人数占到全国人口的9%）、马里、东非和中非大湖地区（包括布隆迪、刚果民主共和国、肯尼亚、马拉维、卢旺达、坦桑尼亚、乌干达）以及南苏丹和中非共和国（超过1200万的人口失去了自己的家园，难民人数多达1000万）等国家。

二是落后的基础设施和服务。

•安全的饮用水和卫生设施：北非和撒哈拉以南非洲在水资源可及性方面取得了不同程度的进展。2014年，北非实现了92％的水资源覆盖率，而撒哈拉以南非洲仅达到61％。此外，低收入城市居民必须支付高昂的水费，有时他们支付的水费竟然是高收入居民所付费用的50倍。举例来讲，刚果民主共和国的城市人口是3250万，其中只有1137万人（约占35%）能够直接获得饮用水，而绝大多数居民（约占63%）的用水只能从邻居那里解决。非洲有5亿多人无法得到像样的卫生设施。以肯尼亚为例，只有29.8%的城市人口的卫生条件得到了改善。

•废弃物管理设施：随着城市化步伐的加快，非洲城市地区的固体废物或垃圾也在暴发式增长。比方说，在坦桑尼亚最大的城市达累斯萨拉姆，每天会产生约4600吨垃圾，其中只有36%的垃圾在普古基尼亚姆韦齐垃圾场得到处理。而且这还是一个开放式垃圾场，没有设计任何安全措施。剩余64%的垃圾就被随便扔在地上或丢到海里。非洲城市地区在固体废料和废水的收集、运输、处理、回收利用和处置方面的投资明显不足。

•能源获取：在苏丹，只有63%的城市居民可以用上电。而在贝宁的科托努等城区，情况甚至更加严峻，只有46.5%的居民可以享受到水电供应，其余人口则主要依靠煤油照明。

•城市出行：大多数非洲城市几乎没有公共交通系统，体现在为城市出行提供服务的公共汽车严重短缺，导致人们只能选择其他交通工具。比如，在乌干达的坎帕拉，46%的人口使用出租车出行，32%的人骑摩托车，只有2%的城市人口依赖公交车，其余19%的居民则选择开私家车。公共交通系统的匮乏导致大多数城市里的大批居民选择步行或使用私家车，结果造成严重的交通拥堵。尼日利亚的拉各斯、刚果民主共和国的金沙萨和肯尼亚的内罗毕等几个非洲城市中心都面临这样的情况。

三是城市的生产效率低下。城市化节奏的加快还导致了非洲城区的结构出现功能失调的现象，一个显著特点就是生产效率低下的状况从农业转移至占主导地位的服务业。

四是城市失业和贫困。统计数据显示，大约81.7%的非洲人每天的生活费用不足4美元，60.8%的非洲人每天的生活费用低于2美元。撒哈拉以南非洲国家的城市贫困程度是世界上最高的。在一些最贫穷的国家，比如乍得、尼日尔和塞拉利昂，超过50%的城市人口生活在贫困线下。这些国家非正规住区服务费用高昂，而且缺乏社会安全体系。非洲城市的人口失业率也很高，特别是年轻人和妇女。比如，亚的斯亚贝巴的人口失业率就高达31%。

五是贫民窟人口激增。2014年，超过65%的非洲城市居民生活在非正规定居点，它们通常被称为贫民区。这些贫民区的特点是居住环境不安全，没有固定的土地使用权，住宅的建筑质量和耐久性不达标，居住面积狭小。城市居住面积的严重不足导致非正规定居点的人口密度非常高。比如，在肯尼亚的内罗毕，250万的城市居民（占城市人口的60%）居住在贫民区，而该区域仅占城市总面积的6%。在坎帕拉和达累斯萨拉姆等其他城市，也有类似的情况。如图2所示，很明显，同样的问题在撒哈拉以南地区更为普遍。据估计，2015年有5300万城市居民生活在贫民区里。

外国投资推动非洲变革

《中国投资》：您认为，在非洲城市发展中，给哪些行业带来了更多的机会？

 Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza：城市为全球国内生产总值贡献了约70%的份额。随着城市人口的不断增加，非洲城市有望成为经济发展和效率提升的驱动力，非洲国家也可以借助规模经济和集群经济的方式收获更大的效益。因此，非洲城市应充分考虑其独特的地区优势，积极吸引公共和私人投资，增强城市的互联互通、市场竞争力和吸引力，从而找到有利于其发展的最佳路径。虽然非洲大陆在全球贫困中的占比达到30%，而且外国直接投资也在不断流入，但整体来讲，外国直接投资在非洲的投资规模仍很小。因此，增加非洲的外国投资很有必要，特别是对一些重点行业进行投资，这对支持非洲大陆正在发生的变革能够起到强有力的推动作用。

•房地产行业：由于非洲城市人口正在日益增长，他们面临住房严重短缺的局面，特别是可负担得起的住房。这一行业还能提供就业机会，并带动当地生产建筑材料的制造业得到发展。

•废弃物管理：城市人口的高增长和城市化都会产生更多的废弃物。非洲城市中心对固体废物和废水的处理仍很落后，但实际上，对废弃物的收集、运输、处理和回收以及对环境进行净化消毒，有利于经济的可持续增长。

•食品生产和加工：与其直接出口农村的农作物，不如将它们运往城市进行加工，然后在国内市场出售给消费者。这样不仅可以创造就业，让当地的年轻人和妇女进入劳动力市场，而且还能促进经济的包容性发展，并且确保非洲城市的食品安全。

•交通运输：通过兴建密集的公路和铁路运输网络，可以将内陆城市、国家和地区与港口城市连接起来，从而扩大市场规模，吸引到更多的外国开发性投资。

•制造业：这是规模最大的工业，它不仅能带动国内市场，而且有助于增强进入全球商品市场的竞争能力。因为制造业能够提升国内商品的附加值，并且可以将第一产业和第三产业有效地结合起来。

•可再生能源：相较于传统能源，可再生能源可以创造大量的就业机会，并且促进绿色发展。绿色竞争力与国际碳减排目标相吻合，正在成为引起跨国公司关切的方面。

•电信：非洲对电信的需求与日俱增。而且，可靠的移动网络和互联网能够吸引以知识为基础的外国开发投资，对高新技术产业的发展具有重要意义。

•新技术：非洲城市已经开始聚焦国外市场，因此拥抱和应用新技术的重要性就不言而喻了。与此同时，新技术也能推动当地高科技制造业的发展，满足国内市场的潜在需求。

⬆图2  非洲的贫民区人口

英文版

Urbanization in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

——Interview with Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza, Director of the Regional Office for Africa of UN-Habitat

By Hou Jieru China Investment  Photos by UN-Habitat

"At
present, African cities are facing many challenges in the process of
rapid growth, but each and every challenge that African urban areas
present represents an opportunity for investment that will lead the
continent to sustainable development.” Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza, Director
of the Regional Office for Africa of UN-Habitat, said in an interview
with China Investment.

Due
to its developmental challenges and limited availability and cost of
domestic financing, foreign direct investment (FDI) is becoming a key
trend in Africa.

 “There
is a very clear need to increase foreign investment in Africa,
especially in some key sectors, such as real estate, waste management,
food production and processing, connectivity, manufacturing, renewable
energy, communication, new technologies and others.” Naison
Mutizwa-Mangiza said.

Urbanization trends and characteristics

China Investment:
In recent years, how is the speed of urban development in Africa? What
are the characteristics of the whole? What do you think are the future
trends of urban development in Africa?

Naison Mutizwa–Mangiza: Urbanization
in the last decades has become one of the most important trends in
human settlements development and the prospects of all developing
countries continue to be deeply affected by rapid urban population.
Africa is not left behind in this new trend. While the continent was
only 15% urban in the 1950s, its urbanization rate has soared to 40% in
2010 and it is projected to reach 56% in 2050. The number of Africa’s
urban dwellers is therefore expected to triple from 471 million in 2015
to 1.33 billion in 2050. The continent will then account for a fifth of
the global urban population, transforming the profile of the region and
challenging policy makers to harness the urbanization phenomenon for
sustainable and inclusive growth and development. Figure 1 shows clearly
that by the year 2050, the majority of African countries will have more
than half of their population living in cities and urban areas.

With
the rapid urbanization that the continent is undergoing, some urban
areas have been encountering exponential population growth. Table 1
clearly illustrates some of the fastest growing cities on the continent.
According to projections, by the year 2035, the continent will have 5
cities that will have reached the status of mega-cities which is defined
as a city with over 10 million inhabitants.

⬆Figure 1  Urbanization trends in Africa

Major problems and challenges

China Investment: At present, what are the problems and challenges in urban development in Africa?

Naison Mutizwa-Mangiza: Urban
areas are crucial for national development. According to conventional
wisdom, no developed country has achieved a middle or high-income level
of development or prosperity without urbanizing. Most of the wealth of
most countries is generated in cities. Productive cities are engines of
economic growth, where critical sectors have replaced low productivity
agriculture and experienced high productivity growth in industrial
manufacturing. African urban areas have a number of challenges that
restrain the continent’s economic development and attraction of
investments. The most prominent challenges that common to these urban
areas are as follow:

1.Conflict induced migration 

Protracted
conflicts as well as the heightened activities of terrorists, violent
extremists and radicalised groups in North and West Africa have
contributed to increased and widespread forced displacement of persons,
in search of basic safety and security in countries such as Libya
(64,000 refugees and asylum seekers, 179,400 IDPs), Somalia (where IDPs
represent 9% of the population), Mali, the Great Lakes Region of East
and Central Africa (comprising Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo,
Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) together with South Sudan and
Central African Republic (home to over 12 million IDPs and over 10
million refugees).

2.Poor basic services delivery

Access
to safe drinking water and sanitation: Northern Africa and Sub-Saharan
Africa have made different levels of progress toward water
accessibility. In 2014 Northern Africa had achieved 92% water coverage
while Sub-Saharan Africa was experiencing a contrasting case with 61%
water coverage. In addition to that, low income urban dwellers have to
pay high prices for water, sometimes up to 50 times the price paid by
higher income dwellers. For instance, in the Democratic Republic of
Congo out of an urban population of 32.5 million, only 11.37 million
(35%) had access to water, with the vast majority (63%) accessing water
from neighbours. Over 500 million people in Africa are without access to
adequate sanitation. Kenya illustrates this situation, with only 29.8%
of the urban population having access to improved sanitation.

•
Waste management facilities: With rapid urbanization, solid waste or
rubbish generation in African urban areas is growing exponentially. For
instance, Dar es Salaam, the largest city in Tanzania, generates
approximately 4,600 tons of waste per day, of which only 36% is disposed
at Pugu Kinyamwezi disposal site, which is an open dump site without
any engineered safety features. The remaining 64% ends up in open land
and marine environments. African urban areas have not invested enough in
solid waste and wastewater collection, transport, treatment, recycling
and disposal.

•
Access to renewable energy: In Sudan, only 63% of urban dwellers have
access to electricity. The situation becomes even more critical in urban
areas such as Cotonou, in Benin, where only 46.5% of the population
have access to hydroelectricity while the rest of the population relies
mainly on kerosene for lighting.

•
Urban mobility: Public transport systems are almost non-existent in
most African urban areas, most of which are characterized by shortage of
buses to service the cities. Urban populations turn to other
alternative options: in Kampala in Uganda, for instance, 46% of the
population use taxis for urban mobility, while 32% use boda bodas
(motorbikes). Only 2% of the urban population relies on buses, while 19%
use private cars. Inefficient public transport systems result in large
populations walking and the use of private cars in most cities, leading
to enormous congestions. This is the case in several African urban
centres such as Lagos in Nigeria, Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Nairobi in Kenya.

3. Low productivity of urban areas

With
rapid urbanization, a dysfunctional structural change is occurring in
African urban areas characterized by a transition from low productivity
agriculture to a predominantly low productivity service sector.

4.  Urban unemployment and poverty

Statistics
show that about 81.7% of Africans live on less that USD 4 per day, with
60.8% falling below the USD 2 per day mark. Sub-Saharan African
countries have some of the world’s highest levels of urban poverty,
encompassing more than 50% of the urban population in some of the
poorest countries, including Chad, Niger and Sierra Leone. There is also
the problem of high costs of services provision in informal settlements
and the absence of social safety nets. These urban areas are also
characterized by very high rates of unemployment, especially among the
youth and women. For instance, 31% of Addis Ababa’s population is
unemployed.

5. High incidence of informal settlements

In
2014, over 65% of Sub-Sahara Africa’s urban residents lived in informal
settlements or slums. These slums are characterized by precarious
living conditions, no security of tenure, rudimentary structural quality
and durability of dwellings, insufficient living area and poor access
to water and sanitation. The high deficit of housing provision leads to
huge numbers of people living in informal settlements or slums at very
high densities. For instance, 2.5 million of urban dwellers (60%) in
Nairobi in Kenya live in slums that occupy only 6% of the total urban
area. The situation is similar in other cities in the region such as
Kampala and Dar es Salaam. As shown in Figure 2, it is clearly
noticeable that the problem is more concentrated in the Sub-Saharan
region, where in 2015 it was estimated that 53 million urban dwellers
lived in slums conditions.

The challenges present opportunities

China Investment: In what industries do you see more opportunities in urban development in Africa?

Naison Mutizwa–Mangiza:
Cities account for about 70% of global GDP. With the ever-growing
population living in cities and benefiting from economies of scale and
agglomeration, African urban areas are expected to become the drivers of
economic growth and productivity. African cities therefore need to find
the best trajectories for their development, taking into account their
specific locational advantages in attracting public and private
investment by enhancing their accessibility, connectivity, markets and
urban attractiveness. While there is a growing influx of foreign
investment in Africa, the continent’s global share of FDI remains small.
There is thus a very clear need to increase foreign investment in
Africa, especially in some key sectors to support the continent’s
emerging transformation.

• Real estate:
With the high population growth that African urban areas are
experiencing, they face extreme shortage of housing, especially
affordable housing. Investment in affordable housing at the required
scale will lead to the generation of employment and will promote the
development of industries manufacturing local construction material.

• Waste management:
High population growth rates and rapid urbanization have resulted in
increased waste generation. The solid waste and wastewater management
sector is still lagging behind in African urban centres. However, it
presents very high potential for investment in collecting, transporting,
treating and recycling the waste generated, as well as in cleaning up
the environment in general.

• Food production and processing:
Value addition through local processing of rural agricultural output in
cities for domestic consumer and export markets could generate
significant employment, promote economic inclusion and strong
participation of women and youth in the local workforce and improve food
security in African urban centres.

• Connectivity:  Linking
landlocked cities, countries and regions with port cities through dense
road and rail transportation networks to expand market size could
attract even more Foreign Development Investment.

• Manufacturing:
Investment in manufacturing within African cities and towns should add
value to domestic commodity markets and promote strong backward and
forward linkages with the primary and tertiary sectors, respectively,
and contribute to industrial growth. The African Union’s Agenda 2063
places emphasis on the transformation of African economies through
industrialization and diversification.

• Renewable energy:
The sector generates more employment when compared to traditional
energy, in addition to promoting green growth. Green-competitiveness
makes an important contribution towards international carbon reduction
targets and is becoming a concern for multinational firms.

• Communication: Africa
is experiencing exponentially high growth of telecommunication demand.
In addition, reliable mobile networks and internet access attract
knowledge-based Foreign Development Investment and are important for the
growth of the hi-tech sector.

• New technologies:
As African urban areas are gearing towards producing for foreign
markets, it is becoming increasingly important for them to embrace new
technologies and to advance their own local hi-tech manufacturing in
order to meet domestic demand.

⬆Figure 2  Slum population in Africa