尼日利亚：城市扩张挑战

如果要列举尼日利亚目前在确保经济稳定发展方面遇到的重大挑战，那么很关键的一个就是城市区域的可持续稳步发展。

城市不能实现适度、有效发展的紧张和不平衡的局面都是由于社会不作为造成的，特别是政府对城市的有序发展进程缺乏有效调控和监管。

尼日利亚的人口在过去25年里以每年3%的比例大幅度增长，与此同时，城区的面积也在不断扩张。这完全是政府不作为导致的，因为政府把经济发展的机会主要集中在城市，结果给城市造成极大压力，其配套设施也不堪负荷。

拉各斯:城市缩影

以拉各斯这样的城市为例，至少有30%的应届毕业生聚集在这里寻找工作或其他发展机会。

在尼日利亚的全国人口中，20岁到40岁的年轻人至少占40%，这一比例在世界各国中都是最高的。拉各斯的年轻人比例更高，因为这些劳动力人口都将其视为能够帮助他们实现理想的希望之地。此外，拉各斯人口中受过教育的比例也明显高于其他地方。

在尼日利亚，大多数一流企业和公司都将其总部设在拉各斯，这使得该城市在银行、石油和天然气、电信、海事、航空、教育、非正规部门和其他具有一定规模的私营企业行业都有极具优势的就业机会。可是随着人口的增长和面积的扩大，与之配套的基础设施却远远没有跟上城市快速发展的节奏。此外，在尼日利亚，住房主要由私人投资者和业主掌控，根据尼日利亚联邦抵押银行提供的数据，2017年，尼日利亚全国有约2500万个家庭没有自己的住房。

这座有着数百年历史的城市近年来以惊人的速度扩张，它所属的卫星城迄今已经延伸到内陆腹地和无人居住的地区。可是另一方面，政府在交通、电力、垃圾管理、环境保护、道路、水上交通、卫生设施、学校及其他交通出行方面，特别是在城市内部，都没有及时有效地提供足够的基础设施。

在这种情况下，城市交通显然一片混乱，几乎陷入危机状态，极大地阻碍了经济的正常发展。大多数时候，来自家庭和工业的废弃物管理也对城市构成了一个严重的挑战，而电力供应的短缺更是无法满足人口增长和经济发展的需求。

城市发展政策改革势在必行

现在，大部分民间开发的新城镇在施工建设方面处于无序状态，这使城镇居民点的扩建并未产生积极效果。不过，在房地产行业，由于其发展迅猛，不仅为不少人提供了工作机会，也使许多普通居民拥有了自己的住房。要想让情况得到改善，对城市的发展政策做出改革势在必行。

从严格意义上讲，迫在眉睫的是对现行的有关开发的法律进行修改。事实上，尼日利亚，当然也包括拉各斯，在城市发展方面的法律法规实在太多了。全国各联邦政府、州政府和地方政府都有专门的部门和机构负责环境和城市发展规划。可是他们的不作为常常令事态朝相反方向发展，导致产生负面效应。

尼日利亚政府在1996年颁布的《尼日利亚城市和区域发展法》中对城市发展做出了详尽的规划。它是一部联邦法律，规定了联邦、州和地方各级政府的职责和负责机构。按照这部法律，联邦政府和州政府各自拥有五项主要职责，地方政府拥有四项职责。

此后，2006年制定的《城市发展法》又在该法律的基础上增添了许多新规定。

如此之多的法律法规带来的却是发展的扭曲、社会的不稳定、城市贫民窟的增多、人口拥挤、贫穷、教育的落后以及基础设施的严重不足。

新城市投资大有可为

不过，虽然存在这么多的问题，拉各斯乃至整个尼日利亚的城市发展都大有潜力可挖。举例来讲，一项耗资数百万美元的投资正在对废弃物进行现代化管理，它无疑将对改变城市面貌产生积极影响。在住宅方面，与之配套的基础设施行业，比如水、电、可替代能源、建筑材料等，也前景看好，因为城市化的蓬勃发展会对它们起到很好的带动作用。

为了使工作步入正轨并产生正面效益，政府需要妥善利用现有的法律法规。政府还要对居民，特别是生活在城市里的市民，进行很好的未来规划，并对环境立即采取保护和预防措施。

此外，最有力的一项举措就是去中心化，因为它给城市造成了太大的压力。最简单的做法就是通过制定政策，鼓励人们在其他区域新建城市，并且使农村人口也能找到谋生之道。待新城建好后，再为它们提供一些优惠政策，这样就可以疏解大批农村人口流入城市的压力了。

在政府层面，应当采取更多的措施制止对城市区域的滥用，包括为农村发展创造有利条件和妥善处理废弃物。

各级政府都要在预算中为新城镇的建设预留出道路、电力及其他基础设施所需的费用。而且，政策绝不能只停留在纸上，更重要的是落实，否则就不能产生实效。

尼日利亚的天然气燃烧控制法就是一个很好的例子，它针对的是石油勘探公司，因为它们需要通过燃烧天然气来勘探地下储藏的原油。而天然气的燃烧一直是尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲地区的一个主要污染源，因为勘探是那里的一项经常业务。对这一做法的抗议大多停留在口头上，燃烧并未受到控制，人们将这归咎于法律薄弱、监管不力，对那些石油勘探公司根本无法起到威慑作用，他们仍旧在支付少量罚金后我行我素。

由于对拉各斯的发展管理不善，导致该城已经饱受摧残和压力，迫使政府不得不考虑在其他一些尚未得到完全开发的城市创造适宜的环境。

其实早在1976年，尼日利亚就通过法律，将首都从拉各斯迁至阿布贾。这一举措使国家有了一个新的、不断发展的城市，同时也减轻了拉各斯的压力，对城市发展来说是一个正确的决定。

现在，尼日利亚已经出现了许多中型城市，比如位于东南部的埃努古和阿巴卡利基、位于南部地区的瓦里和乌约以及一些位于北部的城市。在拉各斯周围，经过政府的精心策划，奥贡州的城市化程度也在不断提高，出现了大量的工业中心。

在东部地区，政府正通过兴建诸如内陆港口、国际机场和为工业提供动能的天然气管道等设施、完善道路网络、修建铁路和利用埃努古地区丰富的煤炭资源作为可替代电力等措施辅助新兴城市的进一步发展。

对瓦里港、哈科特港和卡拉巴港的改造和完善也有助于疏解拉各斯港口的压力，并为尼日利亚提供了更多的替代城市和商业中心。

2016年1月，中国企业联手拉各斯州政府建立了莱基自由贸易区。贸易区内有丹格特集团投资兴建的非洲最大的石油化工厂、一个国际机场和一个深水港。这个深水港在2021年建成并投入运营后将是世界最大的港口之一。预计莱基自贸区的经营规模可达500亿美元，提供约35万个工作机会。

总之，伴随着新城市的兴起，外国和当地投资者在电力、废物管理、道路、铁路、水运、工业、可再生能源、物流、信息和通信技术等诸多行业和领域都有大量的投资机会和可能性。

⬆图2  非洲的贫民区人口

英文版

Nigeria grappling with challenges of urban expansion

By Ikenna Emewu For China Investment  Editor-in-Chief of the AFRI-CHINA MEDIA CENTRE Nigeria

If there is a major challenge Nigeria faces in securing economic stability, the task of sustaining a positive development of the cities or urban areas is a major one.

The factors that create tension and imbalance in proper and profitable urban development are actually those created by the inactions of the society, especially the government that should regulate the orderly process of urban development.

Nigeria’s population has been on a massive growth of about 3.0 percent a year in the past 25 years with commensurate growth and expansion of the urban areas which is caused by the inactions of the governments that restrict economic opportunities to mainly the urban cities and therefore create pressure on the cities and overstretching the facilities.

A city like Lagos as an instance hosts at least 30 percent of fresh graduates who flock to the city in search of jobs and other economic opportunities.

While the entire nation has at least 40 percent youths population between 20 and 40 years, and the highest in the world, Lagos has more because the working age bracket of the population target Lagos as a place with promise for their future aspiration. This is also a clear indicator that the population has a high percentage of the educated and literate.

Most of the A-Class corporate organizations in Nigeria have their headquarters in Lagos and that also drives the preponderance of corporate jobs in banking, oil and gas, telecoms, maritime, aviation, education, the informal sector and other organized private sector firms.

But as the city grows in population and expansion, the infrastructure hasn’t been growing at the same pace apart from housing which is mainly championed by individual and private investors and house owners. Yet, the housing deficit if the city and the country as at 2017 was some 25 million homes, according to the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria data.

The city that started hundreds of years ago has expanded only in the reach of the conurbation which stretches to hitherto hinterlands and uninhabited places at an amazing pace. But the government has not been effective in providing adequate infrastructure in transport, electricity, refuse management, environmental preservation, roads, water transport, health facilities, schools, and alternative transport means especially within the city.

What is evident is therefore a near crises traffic situation that is chaotic to hinder proper economic activities. And most times, management of wastes – from homes and industries pose a serious challenge, while the electricity supply situation is not good enough for the growing population and economic activities.

Today, most of the new towns developed by private citizens efforts don’t have orderly provision of engineering infrastructure, therefore, the development and expansion of the urban settlement hasn’t been too good to encourage positive impacts, apart from the job provisions of the real estate sector that is on very fast development enabling average citizens to own their homes. And to make it better, there is the need to change the urban development policy of the city.

Strictly speaking, what needs the change most is the implementation of the existing development laws. Nigeria and Lagos actually have a plethora of laws and regulations for urban development a reason the federal government, the state governments and the local governments nationwide have ministries and agencies in charge of the environment, urban development and planning. But their inaction most times allows for distorted development that returns negative backlash effects.

The rules regulating urban development by the governments of Nigeria are well encapsulated in the Nigerian Urban and Regional Development Act, 1996. It is a federal law that defines the duties and agencies at the federal, state and local government levels. While the federal and state governments have five major duties each, the local government has four roles as couched by the law.

There is in addition the Urban Development Act of 2006 that gives further impetus to the existing laws.

These distortions create insecurity, urban slum challenges, overcrowding, poverty, poor education system and gross inadequacy of facilities.

However, with all these shortfalls, the urban development sector of Nigeria and Lagos has great potentials that need to be tapped. For instance, an action towards a modern and effective waste management will be a great step into mega dollar investment that will in turn change the urban area for good. The housing sector, infrastructure provision industry such water, electricity, alternative energy, building materials production etc are very fertile areas of the economy that would be effectively driven by the blossoming urban growth.

In order to get things right and working, the government needs to apply the laws and existing rules appropriately. They also need to create better orientation for the citizens, especially the residents of the urban areas on certain measures of immediate environment protection and precautionary measures.

Also, one of the most potent measures could be the decentralization of the incentives that cause a pressure and cluster of the urban cities. This would be made easiest through a policy that encourages the creation of new urban locations making it possible for people to find means of livelihood in rural areas. When new cities are created and with the basic incentives, there would be less pressure and decline in rural-urban migration. 

On the side of the government, there have been more policies that check the abuse of the urban areas including creating some incentives for rural development and finding better means of waste management.

Almost all the governments at the various levels budget for provision of roads, electricity and other infrastructure in the sprawling new towns. But beyond policy drafts on paper, the implementation has been short of expectation and real impact.  More than anything else, the government needs to do much more in implementation.

A good case in point is the gas flaring control laws in Nigeria targeted at oil explorers that flare natural gas in flames to reach the crude oil underneath. The flare has been a major source of pollution in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria where exploration is common.  Most of the actions against this have been in words and most blames the unchecked continuation on weak laws that are poorly implemented in a manner that doesn’t serve as deterrent to the oil explorers who prefer to pay the little fines and continue their usual ways.

The stretch, wear and tear and pressure on Lagos occasioned by the poor management of the developments there make it compelling that the government should think of creating enabling environments in some other cities of the country that are modest right now.

A good backing to this position is an earlier move by the country in 1976 that made a law to move the capital of Nigeria to Abuja from Lagos where it was. The creation has given the country a new and progressive city that has reduced the pressure on Lagos and a wonderful alternative for development.

Right now, there are a lot of modest cities like Enugu and Abakaliki in the South East, Warri and Uyo in the South South zone and some others in the north of the country. Even around Lagos, the deliberate policy to raise the urbanization bar at the nearby Ogun State where a good percentage of the industrial centres now exist has helped a lot.

In the east for instance, the provision of facilities such as inland seaports, international airports, gas pipelines to power the industries, better road networks, railway and exploration of alternative electricity in the abundant coal in Enugu can easily assist to give the nation a new and alternative city for further development.

The advancement and better development of the seaports of Warri, Port Harcourt and Calabar will help decongest the pressure on the Lagos ports and give the nation alternative cities and centres of commerce.

Sometime in January 2016, Chinese firms in conjunction with the Dangote Group and the Lagos State government commissioned the Lekki Free Trade Zone that has the largest petrochemical plant in Africa built by Dangote, an international airport, a deep seaport that will be one of the world’s largest that would come into full operation in 2021. The totality of that project runs into over USD50b when in full operation and targets to provide about 350,000 jobs.

The whole picture is that with new cities in view and worth implementing, there are a lot of possibilities and potential for foreign and local investors in the diverse arms and sectors of a new urban city in power, waste management, roads, railway, water transport, industries, renewable energy, logistics, the ICT and many more.