The West’s “Sanctionitis,” Militarism and Other Self-destructive Impulses西方的“制裁炎”、军事主义和其他自我毁灭式冲动

The European Commission has just decided on new sanctions against Russia – in fact the eighth round of such sanctions. This time the reason is that Russia has held referenda in the Donbas region of Ukraine. I sense we’re witnessing a new disease – Sanctionitis. It seems related to a larger, fatal disease with few treatment options, namely the SHMSI Syndrome: Sanctionitis + Hubris + Masochism + Self-Destructive Impulses.

The patient has foggy ideas about reality and his own strength, and exaggerates ad absurdum the positive effects of his supposedly noble deeds. The pleasure of punishing others and excluding them – preferably millions of innocent people – approaches the orgiastic. The patient also suffers from two obsessions: one about his own innocence in everything that goes wrong for the patient, and the other that concepts like negotiation, cooperation, and peace are vicious propaganda out of step with what the patient perceives as “reality.” It cannot be ruled out that the patient may be a danger to those around him. If the patient does not get help in time, the risk increases that he will eventually lead an isolated social life, suffer financial ruin and  end up as a beggar.

Well, on a more serious note: I wonder how many more sanctions packages can be implemented without someone in those circles realising that the sanctions do not work – and certainly not in this way – and that their effects are increasingly self-destructive.

The US has imposed close to 10 000 sanction around the world, a constant economic warfare. If harsh enough and lasting long enough, sanction become a weapons of mass destruction. More people died in Iraq because of 13 years of sanctions than because of the military war.

Sanctions can be helpful if they have a precise target and a clear criteria for being lifted again. Even if Russia left Ukraine tomorrow, the sanctions would not be lifted. In Iran, Western sanctions have destroyed the middle class that could – if any – force through reforms. In Iraq more than 500 000 women and children had died – I was there myself, visited children’s hospitals and talked with doctors – when then US Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, told the world that – yes, it is a high price but the US thinks it is worth it.

All the red warning lights are flashing of a deep and wide crisis across Europe this winter, and yet the EU elites persist, because self-justifying punishment and Russophobia have replaced every rational thought. And decisions are taken so quickly, so hastily and reflexively that there is no time for impact assessments. Did anyone calculate the long-term effect of thousands of Western companies leaving everything behind in Russia – and likely not coming back the next few decades? Did anyone apply the common knowledge that if sanctions – and other threats are perceived as existentially threatening – they tend to galvanise both the leadership and the people?

Obviously no one in the US and the EU did a brainstorm on issues such as these:

· Will the world support our policy against Russia?
· How will Russia’s isolation from the West stimulate it to seek other cooperative structures?
· How important is Russia’s interaction with Europe compared with other regions of the world?

No, it was taken for granted that Russia would be weakened militarily in Ukraine and economically at home – and then break down.

Political decision-making in the West has increasingly lost touch with the complex global reality. It’s conducted through – for instance – Madam von der Leyen’s appearance in blue and yellow with Mme Zelensky sitting in the first row. It’s become facade, signalling and show – spiced with anti-intellectual, banal Twitter-like statements. It’s the contemporary version of the Emperor’s new blue and yellow clothes – uniform on the outside and uniform thinking, if any, on the inside.

This extremely ill-considered knee-jerk reaction to Russia’s illegal and unethical – but certainly not un-provoked – war in Ukraine seems now to become rapidly more self-destructive to Europe. And not only that – it’s self-isolating too（https://transnational.live/2022/03/22/jan-oberg-nato-russia-conflict-in-ukraine-the-wests-spinal-cord-reaction-will-prove-extremely-self-destructive/）.

Remember that over 80% of the world’s population lives in countries that do not support NATO/EU sanctions policies and the rearmament of Ukraine, just as those countries that face only US/Western confrontation are increasingly coming together in new forms – independent of the West – of economic, political and cultural cooperation. Just think of China, India, Russia, Iran, Indonesia – think of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Belt And Road Initiative (BRI) – the world’s largest peaceful cooperation involving some 140 countries, all non-Western.

In the 1970s we called it horizontal, collective self-reliance – replacing vertical dependence on the US empire and old European colonial relations. It points to a new multi-polar world order. It offers hope.

Let’s open just a few media and look at the forecasts for the European and Western economy.

In mid-September, Bill Gates tells the Financial Times at ”The Ukraine war is stretching the European countries budgets with defence costs, refugee costs, electricity subsidies and shipping costs.” He points out that that undermines their ability to meet the UN development goals.

Back in July 2022, The Guardian’s Simon Jenkins wrote under the headline ”The rouble is soaring and Putin is stronger than ever – our sanctions have backfired”:Western sanctions against Russia are the most ill-conceived and counterproductive policy in recent international history. Military aid to Ukraine is justified, but the economic war is ineffective against the regime in Moscow, and devastating for its unintended targets. World energy prices are rocketing, inflation is soaring, supply chains are chaotic and millions are being starved of gas, grain and fertiliser.”（https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe?）

Then there is La Nina – a powerful weather pattern over Europe influenced by cooler temperatures in the Pacific.” Energy experts point to the risk that this will add to the probability of significant gas shortages – also hitting electricity supplies.”

Russia’s RT reported on September 12, 2022 that ”The biggest challenge the German industrial sector currently faces is posed by rising energy costs, The Economist reported on Sunday, citing the association of German industry BDI.

“The substance of our industry is under threat,” BDI President Siegfried Russwurm said as quoted by the media, adding that the situation was looking “toxic” for many businesses. According to the association, the electricity price for next year has already increased fifteen-fold, and the price of gas ten-fold. In July, the country’s industry, which has been forced to reduce production capacities, reportedly consumed 21% less gas than in the same month in 2021.”（https://www.rt.com/business/562648-german-economy-deindustrialization-energy-crisis/）

It’s quite a statement about one of the strongest economies in the world. Add to that the mind-boggling costs associated with thousands of German companies, including the biggest, having left everything behind in Russia.

And add to that also Chancellor Scholz’ immediate message after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that Germany would throw in about $ 100 billlion to its already substantial military budget (Russia’s total military expenditures are about $ 70 billion, dependent on how one calculates a series of things, but a military expenditure dwarf up against the 12 times – and soon perhaps 20 times bigger NATO expenditures by 30 countries).  Scholz’ – like President Biden’s – visit to Saudi Arabia not only undermined every talk about human rights but also did not yield the desired result: CNN reported on October 5, 2022, that these were ”failed efforts to dissaude OPEC from cutting oil production to avoid a ’total disaster.’” （https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/white-house-lobby-opec-oil-production-cuts-gasoline-prices-midterms/index.html）

And further, reports CNN: ”OPEC+ said Wednesday that it will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic, in a move that threatens to push gasoline prices higher just weeks before US midterm elections. The group of major oil producers, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced the production cut following its first meeting in person since March 2020. The reduction is equivalent to about 2% of global oil demand.”（https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts/index.html）

On October 4, 2022, Countercurrents reports what the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris has just told the Europeans: ”Europe faces “unprecedented risks” to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments and could wind up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that comes by ship, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

Media reports including an AP report said: The Paris-based IEA said in its quarterly gas report released Monday that European Union countries would need to reduce use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cutoff amid the war in Ukraine. Much of that cutback would have to come from consumer behavior such as turning down thermostats by 1 degree and adjusting boiler temperatures as well as industrial and utility conservation, the group said.”（https://countercurrents.org/2022/10/europe-faces-unprecedented-risk-of-gas-shortage-this-winter-warns-iea/）

And two days later, on October 6, 2022, The Guardian reports that ”IMF chief warns world heading towards age of greater instability. Kristalina Georgieva points to ‘fundamental shift’, with fragile global ties and more frequent natural disasters.” She elaborates on this by stating that we’ll see “greater uncertainty, higher economic volatility, geopolitical confrontations, and more frequent and devastating natural disasters – a world in which any country can be thrown off course more easily and more often…The IMF has downgraded its growth projections three times, down to 3.2% for 2022 and 2.9% for 2023. “As you will see in our updated World Economic Outlook next week, we will downgrade growth for next year,” Georgieva said. “And we will flag that the risks of recession are rising.”（https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/06/imf-chief-warns-world-is-heading-towards-an-age-of-breakdown）

At the time of writing, there are conflicts around whether Germany is ”selfish” because it sets up a kind of funding mechanism for the crisis (by contracting loans for itself) while some argue for common EU steps to be taken. However, when it comes to deciding a maximum price on gas, it has just proven impossible to achieve unity at the just-held informal EU summit in Prague. However, they did agree to send more economic and military aid to Ukraine.

These examples will do as everyday media-reported forecasts just within the last few weeks. Western institutions are fairly blunt about the likely – dark – future. What is lacking is not prognosis but -woefully – diagnosis and treatment – radical reforms, transition and adaption to a new multi-polar world order, new structures and a common vision.

But what is it we hear again and again – and then again? We hear Western leaders state that they have set off money to solve this and that problem. So much so that nobody seems to ask the rather relevant question: So why doesn’t it work, why are big plans and budgets not leading to bright new developments, greater welfare for everybody, better infrastructure and higher socio-economic efficiency? Why do things, in contrast, increasingly seem to not work – as I have argue in this analyses a couple of years back – ”Could everyday micro malfunctions be signs of a coming macro breakdown?”（https://transnational.live/2020/03/05/could-everyday-micro-malfunctions-be-signs-of-a-coming-macro-breakdown/）

In the US aviation transport economy, the standard term now is ”The Nothing Works Syndrome.”（https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/summer-air-travel-flights-cancelled/661385/）

President Biden’s speech at the UN General Assembly in September this year contained basically two things – a) confrontational words about Russia and China, and b) a long list of all the good the US has done to help solve the problems humanity faces by mentioning the dollar sums his administration has set off – problem after problem – and predicting its beneficial effects as well as praising implicitly the American global visionary leadership presumably expressed by these billlion dollar allocations.

It will soon become clear that pumping money into defunct systems instead of outlining system reforms could well bring the entire system to a standstill. Why will most of this probably yield little results, if any?

The missing links, one might say, was exactly between diagnosis, prognosis and those dollar sums as problem-solvers. Neither were we informed how the US, the world’s most indebted economy, is going to finance all the military adventures, pay the costs for the Covid-pandemic, win the fight over Russia once and for all – to turn against China – and then carry through all the stipulated allocations for a better world.  

One is reminded of Oscar Wilde’s spot-on conversation: “Cecil Graham: What is a cynic? Lord Darlington: A man who knows the price of everything, and the value of nothing.”

To put it crudely – Western capitalism has become obsessed with prices and markets and the belief in God’s invisible hand. There is no such hand. Drunk by the historic successes Western liberal capitalism has had – and the victory over Soviet communism – it seems to have forgotten along the road what it means that something is of value – i.e. is something that can not be measured by its performance on a market but has intrinsic quality, something that is important but cannot be translated into money, cannot be bought and sold – or, is pricelessly valuable.

If this holds some truth, we are facing cynicism) of global proportions because if everything is reduced to a market function, there will eventually be nothing left of value. Why? Because it seems as if the last few decades of neo-liberal capitalism expressed through market fundamentalism will end up destroying everything of value by converting – and perverting – it to be expressed by a price.

However, in the real world, health doesn’t come about primarily from investments in a health sector. They may help of course but health is about a way of living, about the quality of life – not the least psychologically.  Lasting creations in art and other culture comes from an inner urge, a desire to see and interpret the world – not from what fetches absurd prices at auction houses, galleries and art fairs. Peace and security won’t come about because we invest more in weapons and increase military expenditures.

That is – the value come from the inside, intrinsically. The prize is an outside, conferred mechanism, external and very often leading to even more cynicism – also in the sphere of politics.

Now back to the confluence of crisis and their feedback loops and reinforcement dynamics over time. You may use catchword such as: Climate, Migration, Pandemic, Energy, Infrastructure, Supply chains, Inflation, Food, Fertiliser and Warfare/Militarism and combine them in numerous ways. Everything is related to and influences everything else – but mechanical natural science thinking seems to have replaced organic social science and humanist thinking and thus we drift towards decline and fall.

And that is the main reason that cancelling Russia across the board – no matter what one may think of its war on Ukraine – is unwise and an indicator of missing reality checks. But it keeps the West believing in solidarity.

The EU never became a real innovation hub – neither technologically nor politically. It has consistently lacked a common vision as Europe and also been unable to develop a role for itself as the ’alternative’ West to the United States (with or without the European country called Russia). In the final end, national(istic) thinking has prevailed over common union thinking and vision.

In 2015, the EU crumbled morally and politically by not being able to accommodate 1,5 million asylum seekers that came predominantly from countries destroyed by the US and some of the EU/NATO countries themselves. That is, 410 million EU citizens were not willing (but certainly in principle able) to care for a limited period of time for 1,5 million people. In parenthesis, before the outbreak of violence in Syria with 25 milllion people, it had received 2 million from the devastated Iraq. The EU chose to pay non-EU Turkey to take care of most of these refugees.

That was, so to speak, the first crisis and it was way more than an economic issue. It was a moment of soul-searching: Who are we, what are we afraid of? Why can’t we carry such a small extra burden without risking more racism, populism and socio-economic fragmentation as well as inner-EU conflicts?

Then came the Covid-19. Again, no common Union ground was found. Denmark, for instance, simply announced that it closed its border – with the rest gaping. This crisis, like the refugee crisis preceding it, could have served as the crisis that would make Europe come together and solve a common burden through a common, coordinated and burden-sharing way. It didn’t. China and Russia and others helped save the Italians.

Then came the Russian invasion of Ukraine – following the US-orchestrated regime change in Kiev in 2014, Russia’s responsive annexation of Crimea, a series of NATO countries militarisation of Ukraine, the civil war over 8 years and the repeated Western lack of respect for continuously stated Russian concerns from Gorbachev in 1989 to Putin’s demand of a dialogue about security reforms in December 2021.

The EU and US/NATO countries’ reaction to that invasion – rather than the invasion itself – is what is now causing most of the terrible boomerang effects and dark predictions about the future of the European societies. The US profits and fares better – now exporting its energy resources and experiencing a fabulous boom in its military industry and export – to NATO in general and to Ukraine, a non-NATO member, in particular.

In this perspective, the war in Ukraine and the self-destructive economic policies of the EU functions as a precious opportunity for the US that is itself in decline. And it is also in this perspective one may view the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 and 2 that took place on Monday, September 26, 2022.

We know that President Biden and Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland have stated that Nord Stream would not exist if Russia invaded Ukraine. But at the moment, we do not know of empirical evidence that point to the perpetrator.

But it gives economic warfare a new, very serious dimension.（https://transnational.live/2022/09/29/jan-oberg-biden-and-nuland-promised-to-destroy-nordstream-before-the-russian-invasion/）
In short, the mentioned confluence of crises emerges at the very moment when the world economy is arriving at some fundamental system limitations in capitalism – exploitation of man, of Nature, of resources, of inequality and in legitimacy. And it coincides with Western relative decline. This makes for both opportunities and dangers. To handle it, the emphasis must be placed on statesmanship, cooperation, effective coordination, fast implementation and a common, determined, inclusive march towards solutions. But of this we see little.

Crisis upon crisis have not compelled the main players, the United States in particular, to come together and join hands with the EU and the rest of the world. Sadly, we primarily witness confrontation, threats, sanctions, punishments and militarism. As a matter of fact, the only thing that does seem to have a potential for making the West stand together is deeply negative with further self-destructive effects in decades ahead – namely isolating and defeating Russia, cancelling it and further arm the already wildly overarmed NATO system. It doesn’t augur well for humanity’s future.

When honest people in Europe can no longer pay their bills or have to choose between heating or food this coming winter, you can count on them to take to the streets and protest so it can be heard and seen. There will be further electoral landslides to the right – as recently in Sweden and Italy – social unrest and likely violent demonstrations throughout Europe.

Democracy and freedom of speech and other freedoms will be further restricted, criticism will not be tolerated for there is – officially – only one truth. It is the truth of the elites – some of them unelected like those running the EU – and these elites are more in solidarity with each other than with their respective citizens.

Democracies are in great danger of becoming what they – simplifyingly and propagandistically – accuse others of being: authoritarian. It won’t be long before people start asking:

– Why should we pay this price for NATO’s expansion – NATO was supposed to give us security and we are now on the brink of nuclear war?

– Why must my family suffer because of Russia’s totally counterproductive war in Ukraine in response to the expansion – and the EU countries’ headless response to that invasion?

– And how much am I prepared to pay on a daily basis to support and arm Ukraine, so that together we can break Russia once and for all? Who benefits? And for how long?

– Are we really going to put up with our children and grandchildren living – if living at all – through another decades-long cold war thanks to the cancellation of Russia as part of Europe?

– And why does my government target and punish the Russian people who cannot be made responsible for the leadership’s decision to invade Ukraine?

Ukraine is strategically rather unimportant for the West. Yet not to NATO’s infallibility and prestige, for the alliance has spent 30 years in, wooing and militarizing Ukraine so that – against all promises of non-expansion, warnings of wise experts, the wrath of all Russian leaders and against the preferences of the Ukrainian people – it would become a NATO member（Please see my analysis of this case as part of a larger analysis ”The TFF Abolish NATO Catalogue” at https://transnational.live/2022/08/18/the-tff-abolish-nato-catalogue/）.

Add to this the fact that 90+% of Western Europeans have no personal relationship whatsoever with Ukraine, its history or its peoples, have no personal Ukrainian friends and have never visited Ukraine.

Like pack animals, corporations, banks, royalty and politicians are strutting and flagging for something they have no idea what is and a conflict they have even less of a clue about – mainly because their only source of knowledge is the ‘leading’ mainstream media 24/7.

Instead of a positive vision about a better future for all, the West is united in hating Russians and cracking Russia on a fake black and white narrative. It will probably collapse before the EUrocrats – the kakistocrats – know it.

Like so much else for the West in these – uniquely dangerous – times. 

西方的“制裁炎”

欧盟委员会刚刚决定对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，事实上这已经是第八轮制裁了。这一次的原因是俄罗斯在乌克兰的顿巴斯地区举行了公民投票。我感觉到我们正在目睹一种新的疾病——制裁炎。它似乎与一种更大的致命疾病有关，却几乎没有治疗方案，即SHMSI综合征：制裁+傲慢+受虐+自我毁灭式冲动（Sanctionitis + Hubris + Masochism + Self-Destructive Impulses）。

病人对现实和自身的力量只有模糊的认知，同时荒谬地夸大了他所谓高尚行为的积极影响。惩罚和排斥他人——很可能是数以百万计的无辜者——的快乐近乎癫狂。病人还受到两种困扰：一种是认为自己在所做的一切事情上都是无罪的；另一种是将谈判、合作和和平等概念视为与其所认为的“现实”不一致的恶毒宣传。不能排除这样的病人可能会对周围的人构成危险。如果病人得不到及时的帮助，他最终会过一种与世隔绝的社会生活，遭受经济损失，甚至沦为乞丐的风险也会增加。

让我们更严肃地讨论一下这一问题：如果那些圈子里的人没有意识到制裁是行不通的——事实上肯定是行不通的——而且制裁的结果会越来越具有自我毁灭性，那么还有多少制裁方案可以实施。

美国在全世界实施了近10000项制裁，已经成为一场持续不断的经济战。如果制裁足够严厉，持续的时间足够长，制裁就会演变为大规模毁灭性武器。在伊拉克，由于13年的制裁而死亡的人数超过了军事战争的死亡人数。

如果制裁有一个明确的目标，并且对于解除制裁也有清晰的标准，那么制裁或许能起到一定作用。但实际上，即使俄罗斯明天撤离乌克兰，制裁也不会解除。在伊朗，西方的制裁摧毁了中产阶级，而其实只有中产阶级是可以通过改革来推动社会进步的力量。在伊拉克，50多万的妇女和儿童死亡——我亲自去了那里，参观了儿童医院，并与那里的医生交谈——当时，美国国务卿玛德琳·奥尔布赖特告诉世界——是的，这是一个很高的代价，但美国认为这是值得的。

所有的红色警示灯都在闪烁，预示着今年冬天整个欧洲将面临一场强烈而广泛的危机，然而欧盟的精英们仍在坚持他们的做法，因为自圆其说的惩罚和俄罗斯恐惧症已经取代了所有理性思维。

决策的速度如此之快，如此仓促和条件反射，以至于根本没有时间对其可能产生的影响进行评估。是否有人测算过数千家西方公司把一切都抛在俄罗斯，并且可能未来几十年都不会再回去所要付出的长期代价？是否有人考虑过这样一个常识，即如果制裁或其他恐吓让被制裁方认为其存在受到了威胁，它们往往会激化其领导人和民众的情绪？

显然，美国和欧盟没有人就以下问题进行集思广益：

● 世界会支持我们对俄罗斯的政策吗？
● 俄罗斯与西方的隔绝会如何刺激它寻求其他合作机会？
● 相较于世界其他地区，俄罗斯与欧洲的互动有多重要？

没有人考虑这些。人们理所当然地认为，俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事实力和国内的经济实力都会被削弱，最终它会崩溃。

西方的政治决策越来越与复杂的全球现实脱节。比如，它可以由身着蓝色和黄色相间服装的冯德莱恩女士与坐在第一排的泽连斯基夫人做出。这已经变成了表面文章和作秀，再配上反智的、平庸的推特式声明。这是皇帝新的蓝色和黄色服装的当代版本——外面是统一的服装，里面是统一的思维（如果有的话）。

对于俄罗斯在乌克兰的非法和不道德的——但肯定不是没有受到挑衅的——战争，这种极不明智的未经思考就做出的反应现在似乎正在迅速地对欧洲造成更大的自毁。不仅如此，它还将自己也与世界隔绝了（https://transnational.live/2022/03/22/jan-oberg-nato-russia-conflict-in-ukraine-the-wests-spinal-cord-reaction-will-prove-extremely-self-destructive/）。

要知道，世界上80%以上的人口生活在不支持北约/欧盟制裁政策和对乌克兰军事武装的国家，正如那些与美国/西方对峙的国家越来越多地以新的形式走到一起——独立于西方——并展开经济、政治和文化合作。这方面可以看看中国、印度、俄罗斯、伊朗、印度尼西亚——看看上海合作组织和“一带一路”倡议——后者是世界上最大的和平合作方案，涉及约140个非西方国家。

20世纪70年代，我们认为横向的集体自力更生取代了对美国帝国和旧的欧洲殖民关系的纵向依赖。它使世界秩序朝着新的多极方向发展。它带来了希望。

对欧洲和西方经济的预测

让我们再看看现在一些媒体对欧洲和西方经济的预测。

9月中旬，比尔·盖茨在英国《金融时报》上撰文，称“乌克兰战争使欧洲国家的预算因国防费用、难民费用、电力补贴和运输费用而变得紧张。”他指出，这削弱了它们实现联合国发展目标的能力。

早在2022年7月，《卫报》的西蒙·詹金斯就在“卢布正在飙升，普京比以往任何时候都强大——我们的制裁适得其反”的标题下写道：“西方对俄罗斯的制裁是近年来国际历史上构想最差、效果最差的政策。对乌克兰的军事援助是应该的，但对莫斯科政权的经济战却是无效的，对它的非计划目标也是毁灭性的。世界能源价格飞涨，通货膨胀飙升，供应链混乱，数百万人面临天然气、粮食和化肥的短缺。”（https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jul/29/putin-ruble-west-sanctions-russia-europe?）

还有拉尼娜现象，这是一种受太平洋较冷温度影响的整个欧洲面临的强烈天气模式。能源专家指出，它将增加天然气严重短缺的可能性，也会影响电力供应。

2022年9月12日，俄罗斯《今日俄罗斯》上的报道称，“德国工业部门目前面临的最大挑战是能源成本的上涨。” 《经济学人》周日援引了德国行业游说组织总裁西格弗里德·鲁斯乌尔姆对媒体所说的，“我们工业的实质正受到威胁”。他还补充说，对于许多企业来说，情况看上去“非常糟糕”。根据该组织的说法，明年的电价会上涨15倍，天然气价格会上涨10倍。据报道，7月份，被迫降低产能的德国工业消耗的天然气比2021年同期减少了21%（https://www.rt.com/business/562648-german-economy-deindustrialization-energy-crisis/）。这就是世界上最强经济体之一的现状。此外，数千家德国公司，包括最大的公司，都将其一切抛在了俄罗斯，相关成本令人难以置信。

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，朔尔茨总理立即表示，德国将向其已经相当可观的军事预算再投入约1000亿美元（俄罗斯的军事支出总额约为700亿美元，这取决于人们如何计算一系列因素，但与北约30个国家的军费支出相比，它简直相形见绌。现在它们是它的12倍，很快就会扩大到20倍。

与拜登总统一样，朔尔茨对沙特阿拉伯的访问不仅破坏了关于人权的每一次会谈，而且也没有得到期望的结果：2022年10月5日美国有线电视新闻网报道，这些都是“劝阻欧佩克减少石油产量以避免‘全面灾难’的失败努力”（https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/04/politics/white-house-lobby-opec-oil-production-cuts-gasoline-prices-midterms/index.html）。

美国有线新闻网还在报道中称，“欧佩克+周三表示，将每天减少200万桶石油产量，这一降幅是自疫情爆发以来最大的，此举具有在美国中期选举前几周推高汽油价格的威胁。主要产油国集团，包括沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯，在其首次召开的见面会上就宣布，从2020年3月开始减产。这一减产相当于全球石油需求的约2%（https://edition.cnn.com/2022/10/05/energy/opec-production-cuts/index.html）。

2022年10月4日，《逆流》报道了国际能源署刚刚通报欧洲人的情况：今年冬天，由于俄罗斯切断了大部分管道运输，最终可能要与亚洲争夺本已稀缺且昂贵的船用液化天然气，因此，欧洲的天然气供应将面临“前所未有的风险”，包括美联社在内的媒体都报道称：总部位于巴黎的国际能源署在周一发布的天然气季度报告中表示，如果俄罗斯在乌克兰战争期间完全切断天然气供应，那么欧盟国家需要在这个冬季减少13%的天然气用量。这种削减在很大程度上需要消费者承担，比如将恒温器调低1度，调整锅炉温度，以及防止工业和公用事业的浪费（https://countercurrents.org/2022/10/europe-faces-unprecedented-risk-of-gas-shortage-this-winter-warns-iea/）。

2022年10月6日，《卫报》的报道称，“国际货币基金组织的负责人警告说，世界正走向更加不稳定的时代。克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃指的是包括全球关系脆弱、自然灾害更加频繁在内的‘根本性转变’。”

她在进一步阐述时说，我们将看到“更大的不确定性、更大的经济波动、地缘政治对抗，以及更频繁、更具破坏性的自然灾害——一个任何国家都可能更轻易、更经常地就被抛出轨道的世界……国际货币基金组织已经三次下调了增长预测，2022年降至3.2%，2023年降至2.9%。” 她说，“在下周更新的世界经济展望中你会看到，我们将下调明年的增长率。我们将强调经济衰退的风险正在加大。”（https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/06/imf-chief-warns-world-is-heading-towards-an-age-of-breakdown）

军事主义和其他自我毁灭式冲动

就在撰写本文时，围绕德国是否“自私”出现了争议，因为德国针为危机建立了一种关爱机制（即为自己贷款），而一些人则主张欧盟应当采取共同措施。然而，在决定天然气的最高价格时，刚刚在布拉格举行的欧盟非正式首脑会议证明统一是不可能实现的。不过他们确实都同意向乌克兰提供更多的经济和军事援助。

这些例子与过去几周媒体每天报道的预测一样。西方机构对未来黑暗的可能性表达得直言不讳。所以缺乏的不是预测，而是令人遗憾的诊断和治疗——面对新的多极世界秩序、新的结构和共同愿景，应当采取怎样的根本性改革、过渡和适应。

但是我们一遍又一遍听到的是什么？我们听到西方领导人表态，他们已经拿出资金来解决这个和那个问题。这样的话听得太多了，以至于似乎没有人问一个与此相关的问题：那么，为什么它们不起作用，为什么宏大的计划和预算不能带来更美好的新发展，为每个人创造更多的幸福，建设更好的基础设施和实现更高的社会经济效率？相反，事情似乎正变得越来越糟——就像我几年前在一篇分析文章中所问的那样——“日常细微的问题会是即将到来的巨大崩溃的迹象吗？”（https://transnational.live/2020/03/05/could-everyday-micro-malfunctions-be-signs-of-a-coming-macro-breakdown/）
美国航空运输业中，现在的标准术语是“无能为力综合症”（https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/06/summer-air-travel-flights-cancelled/661385/）。

拜登总统今年9月在联合国大会上的讲话基本上包含了两个内容：一个是针对俄罗斯和中国的对抗性言论，另一个是一长串美国为帮助解决人类面临的问题所做的一切努力，包括他这届政府用于解决一个又一个问题所支付的美元总额，预测它们会产生的有益影响，并且含蓄地称赞这些数十亿美元的拨款能够体现出美国具有全球视野的领导力。

人们很快就会清楚地看到，将资金注入失效的系统，而不是进行系统改革，很可能会使整个系统陷于停顿。为什么大多数这样的做法几乎没有产生什么结果？

或许有人会说，缺失的环节正是诊断、预后和作为问题解决方案的金钱之间的联系。我们没有人知道，作为世界上负债最多的经济体，美国将如何为所有军事冒险提供资金，支付新冠肺炎产生的费用，彻底地赢得与俄罗斯的斗争，接着再转向反对中国，然后还能为一个更美好的世界执行所有规定的拨款。

这让人们不禁想起奥斯卡·王尔德戏剧里的一段对话：“塞西尔·格雷厄姆：什么是愤世嫉俗者？达林顿勋爵：一个知道一切的价格，却不知道任何东西价值的人。”

简而言之，西方资本主义已经痴迷于价格和市场以及对上帝无形之手的信仰。但事实上，没有这样的手。沉醉于西方自由资本主义曾经取得的历史性成就——以及对苏联共产主义的胜利——使它在发展过程中似乎忘记了什么是有价值的东西，即不能用其在市场上的表现而要根据其内在品质来衡量的东西，重要但不能转化为金钱的东西，不能买卖的东西，或者属于无价之宝的东西。

如果这样说有一定道理的话，那我们正面临全球范围的玩世不恭，因为如果一切都简化为市场功能，最终将没有任何有价值的东西。为什么？因为似乎过去几十年通过市场原教旨主义表达的新自由资本主义最终会通过改变和扭曲价格来摧毁一切价值。

然而，在现实世界中，健康并不是主要来源于对健康部门的投资。当然，它可能会有所帮助，但健康是一种生活方式，是生活质量，而不是心理上的。艺术和其他文化中持久的创作来自内心的渴望，渴望看到和解释世界，而不是来自拍卖行、画廊和艺术博览会上的荒谬价格。同样，和平与安全也不会因为我们加大了武器投资，增加了军事开支就能实现。

也就是说，价值本质上来自内部。奖项则属于外界的授予机制，而且它常常会导致更多的犬儒主义，包括政治领域。

现在回到危机和反馈循环的交汇点以及随着时间推移形成的强化动态。你可以举出许多现在的流行词，比如：气候、移民、新冠疫情、能源、基础设施、供应链、通货膨胀、粮食、化肥和战争/军事主义，并用多种方式将它们结合起来。每一个问题都与其他问题相关，并对其他问题产生影响——但是机械的自然科学思维似乎已经取代了感官的社会科学和人文主义思维，因此我们走向了衰落和失败。

这就是全面制裁俄罗斯——无论人们怎么看待它在乌克兰的战争——是不明智的主要原因，也是对现实缺乏审视的表现。可是它却让西方相信这能使它们团结在一起。

欧盟从未成为真正的创新中心——无论是在技术方面还是政治上。它一直缺乏欧洲应有的共同愿景，也没有发展自己作为“替代”美国的西方角色（无论有没有俄罗斯这一欧洲国家）。最终，国家（主义）思维超越了共同联盟的思维和愿景。

2015年，由于不能接收150万主要来自被美国摧毁的国家和一些欧盟/北约内部国家的寻求庇护者，欧盟在道义和政治上都坍塌了。也就是说，4.1亿欧盟公民不愿意（但原则上肯定可以）在有限的时间内为这150万人提供照顾。顺便说一句，仅拥有2500万人口的叙利亚在暴力发生前，已经从遭到彻底破坏的伊拉克收留了200万伊拉克人。而欧盟却只选择付钱给非欧盟国家土耳其，由其来照顾大多数难民。

可以说，这是欧盟的第一次危机，而它不仅仅是一个经济问题，还需要大家反省：我们是谁？我们在害怕什么？我们为什么不能在无须冒更多种族主义、民粹主义、社会经济分裂以及欧盟内部冲突风险的情况下，承担如此小的一点额外责任？

接着是新冠疫情。同样，欧盟没有表现出共同立场，比如，丹麦直接宣布关闭其边境，其他国家则目瞪口呆地不知所措。这次危机，与之前的难民危机一样，本可以成为一次使欧洲走到一起的危机，通过共同、协调和分担责任的方式予以解决。但是它没有。中国、俄罗斯和其他国家帮助救助了意大利人。

然后就是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰——2014年，美国在基辅策划政权更迭，俄罗斯吞并了克里米亚作为回应。一些北约国家支持乌克兰军事化，乌克兰内战持续了8年多。与此同时，从1989年的戈尔巴乔夫直到2021年12月的普京，一直要求就安全改革进行对话，可是欧盟对其持续表达的关切始终不予重视。

欧盟和美国/北约国家对俄罗斯入侵的反应——而不是入侵本身——是目前造成大多数可怕的自食其果效应和对欧洲社会的未来做出黑暗预测的原因。而美国却获利颇丰——现在它向北约，特别是非北约成员国乌克兰，出口其能源资源，并在军工产业和其他出口方面增速惊人。

从这个角度来看，乌克兰战争和欧盟的自毁性经济政策对美国来说是一个相当难得的机会，虽然美国本身也处在衰退中。人们也会从这个角度来看待2022年9月26日星期一发生的北溪1号和2号的蓄意破坏。我们知道拜登总统和助理国务卿维多利亚·纽兰曾表示，如果俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，北溪将不复存在。虽然目前我们还没有实证证明谁是作恶者，但它的确将经济战引向了一个新的、非常严重的层面（https://transnational.live/2022/09/29/jan-oberg-biden-and-nuland-promised-to-destroy-nordstream-before-the-russian-invasion/）。

简言之，当世界经济受到资本主义的一些基本制度限制——对人、自然和资源的榨取以及对不平等和合法性的利用——的时候，上述危机的汇合就出现了。这与西方的相对衰落同时发生，因此它既是机会，也是危险。要应对这样的局面，必须强调政治才能、合作、有效协调和快速执行，并且朝着解决问题的方向共同、坚定、包容地前行。可是这一切我们几乎没有看到。

接二连三的危机并没有迫使主要参与者，特别是美国，与欧盟和世界其他国家走到一起，携手合作。可悲的是，我们看到的主要是对抗、威胁、制裁、惩罚和军事主义。事实上，唯一有可能使西方站在一起的状况是，在未来几十年里，它会进一步自我毁灭——即孤立和打垮俄罗斯，使其灭亡，并继续武装已经过度武装的北约体系——然后遭受由此产生的严重后果。这对人类的未来来说实在不是一个好兆头。

当老实的欧洲人在即将到来的冬天无法支付账单，或者不得不在取暖和食物两者间做出选择时，你可以想到他们会走上街头抗议，为的是能够被听到和看到。正如最近在瑞典和意大利所发生的，选举进一步向右翼倾斜，整个欧洲很可能会出现社会动荡和暴力示威。

民主、言论自由和其他自由将受到进一步限制，批评也不会被容忍，因为官方只认可一个真相。这个真相是来自精英阶层的——他们中的一些人没有经过选举，比如欧盟的领导人——这些精英们站在了一起，而不是与他们各自国家的人民在一起。

民主政体正在陷入他们简单化和宣传性地指责他国的独裁政体的巨大危险中。不久人们就会开始问：

——为什么我们要为北约的扩张付出这样的代价？北约本应为我们提供安全感，可我们现在却正处于核战争的边缘？

——为什么我的家人要因为俄罗斯在乌克兰完全反效果的战争和欧盟对此缺乏头脑的反应而遭受痛苦？

——为了支持和武装乌克兰，使我们能够彻底摧毁俄罗斯，我每天需要准备支付多少钱？谁会受益？我要准备多久？

——为了使俄罗斯不再能作为欧洲的一部分，我们真的忍心让我们的子孙后代再经历一次长达数十年的冷战吗？

——为什么我们的政府要针对和惩罚俄罗斯人民，他们又不能对其领导人做出的入侵乌克兰的决定负责？

乌克兰在战略上对西方并不重要。然而，对北约的绝对正确和威望却不能不受到影响，因为它已经花了30年的时间吸引乌克兰并使其军事化，这样乌克兰就能够成为北约成员国，为此它全然不顾曾做出的不扩张的承诺、一些明智专家的警告以及俄罗斯领导人的愤怒，也根本没有考虑乌克兰人民的意愿（请参阅我在“TFF废除北约目录”分析中对此进行的研判https://transnational.live/2022/08/18/the-tff-abolish-nato-catalogue/）。

而且，90%以上的西欧人与乌克兰、它的历史或人民没有任何私人关系，他们没有乌克兰朋友，也从未到过乌克兰。

就像群居动物一样，企业、银行、皇室成员和政客们也在摇旗呐喊，其实他们并不清楚事情的原委，对冲突也一无所知，只是因为他们唯一的信息来源——主流媒体——全天候的鼓噪。

西方并没有着眼于让所有人对美好未来抱有积极的愿景，而是团结一致，仇视俄罗斯人，并用虚假的叙述攻击俄罗斯。这很可能让欧盟在其官员——一群恶人统治者们——意识到之前就崩溃了。就像西方在这个特别危险的时代所面临的许多其他情况一样。