非洲航空一体化需要实施框架

世界银行认为非洲经济仍然是目前世界上增长最快的经济体，而根据国际航空运输协会的预测，非洲的航空业也将快速发展，在未来20年有望达到5％的年增长率。

非洲航空市场现状

目前，非洲有731个机场，419家航空公司，创造了约690万个工作岗位，经济总量达800亿美元，航空业欣欣向荣，前景广阔，市场充满活力，在推动经济增长方面潜力巨大，可以说非洲是航空业最后的前沿阵地。

但是，由于政府未能制定强有力的航空运输业发展战略，加上保护主义仍普遍存在，非洲的航空业发展仍然倍受限制。基础设施薄弱，票价高，连通性差，自由度不高等都是阻碍非洲航空业发展的挑战。大部分非洲国家的机场基础设施老旧，无法承载不断增加的客流和货运量。航空公司和机场通常由政府部门或监管机构管理，不利于外国投资。因此与加强监管相比，人们更看好本地区廉价航空（LCC）的发展。

非洲航空一体化进展与障碍

2018年1月，非盟启动了非洲单一航空运输市场计划，希望在非洲形成一体化航空运输市场，实现非洲的航空运输自由化，这也与非盟《2063年议程》的愿景一致。

非洲单一航空运输市场是实施1988年亚穆苏克罗宣言的重要一步，但是只有各国政府密切合作，破除障碍，释放非洲大陆真正的潜能，才不致使这一愿景落空。

然而，目前许多国家似乎都不愿意参与，无法真正形成非洲单一航空运输市场。非盟曾预测到今年年底将有40个国家加入，但截至今年2月，只有28个国家加入，仅比计划签署时多了5个，这样看来就更不可能实现2021年非盟55个成员国全部加入的目标了，因而情况不容乐观。

当然，过去一年来在管理方面还是有一些进展的。比如，莫桑比克的马普托市就向外国航空公司开放了其国内市场。尽管有些航空公司成功地拓展了洲际航线，但在改善区域内部互联互通方面仍面临着障碍。

几乎所有非洲国家的政府都对航空燃料征收高额税款，因此当地航空公司的运营成本是世界上最高的。而各机场的服务供应商垄断经营，价格昂贵，进一步阻碍了航空业的发展。

不正当竞争是阻碍全面实施非洲单一航空运输市场计划的又一顽疾，因为大部分政府都偏袒国有航空公司。例如，在尼日利亚政府的帮助下，国有航空公司能够以2％的利率获得贷款，且没有增值税，但私营航空公司的贷款利率却高达28％，还要缴纳增值税。私营航空公司还无权使用外汇。

因此，航空业的竞争法规是确保所有签署方公平竞争的关键，使经济主体（即各个国家）能够在公平的环境里自由竞争，且能够保证各国的行为不会对其它国家不利，但同时也不利于引入外部竞争。

人员的自由流动和自由贸易是该计划的重要组成部分，但是旅客出国仍需办理签证，因此目前非洲境内的人员流动十分有限，并不像欧盟那样彼此开放天空。

整个非洲大陆都缺乏统一的收费和征税标准，也带来了一些不公平的贸易行为，比如一些非洲国家会给本国的航空公司提供补贴。

还有一个问题是缺乏对本国航空公司的保护，而且目前没有办法确定股东结构，因此非洲以外的投资者可能会想方设法充分利用政策在一些非洲国家开办航空公司，有滥用开放天空协议的危险。

最后，可能存在不公平的经济收益。尼日利亚称埃塞俄比亚的收入中有45％都是来自尼日利亚，但埃塞俄比亚航空公司并未雇用尼日利亚的空乘和地勤人员。

尽管非洲单一航空运输市场协议能够带来经济效益，但缺乏实施框架，因此如何在整个非洲大陆实施这一计划是一大挑战。启动非洲单一航空运输市场时，55个非盟成员国只有23个签署了该协议。在东非，肯尼亚、卢旺达和埃塞俄比亚签署了该条约，但坦桑尼亚、乌干达和布隆迪并未签署。

非洲航空一体化应分阶段、分区域实施

让各国接受并实施非洲单一航空运输市场计划困难重重，国际咨询和金融咨询公司德勤最近做出了分析，证明种种担心不无道理。德勤认为，非洲单一航空运输市场项目与1988年的亚穆苏克罗宣言不同，它缺少合理的机制来管理各航空公司，也没有建立统一运输市场所需的规则。

德勤给出了一些建议，其中一项就是非盟不要急于一次性实施非洲单一航空运输市场的所有规定。亚穆苏克罗宣言提出了分阶段、分区域的实施方法，能够使航空运输市场协调发展，使有关各方都能受益。

当然，在巨大的红利面前，形成非洲单一航空运输市场是必然的。但是，很多国家不愿意加入，使得该项目进展缓慢。因此，要想在全部55个国家形成一体化的运输市场，德勤的建议还是值得仔细考虑的。

肯尼亚航空产业机遇

我们还应注意，非洲拥有世界16％的人口，但航空客运量仅占全球的2.2％，进一步表明非洲航空巨大的增长潜力。

目前，非洲最大的航空公司之一肯尼亚航空公司尚未加入非洲单一航空运输市场。尽管总统乌胡鲁·肯雅塔已经做出了承诺，但这家东非巨头依然还未加入。

肯尼亚总统肯雅塔去年在内罗毕举行的国际民航组织航空服务谈判会议上表示，“肯尼亚一直在努力践行非盟实现非洲航空服务市场一体化的倡议。为此，肯尼亚是迄今已签署非洲单一航空运输市场的25个国家之一。”

但是肯尼亚尚未根据非洲单一航空运输市场的协议调整其国内法律，因此也无法付诸实施。肯尼亚国民议会运输委员会主席戴维·普斯科辛表示：“修订法律必须经议会批准，我们知道有些国家尚未行动，因此他们也没有出席签约仪式。我们很快就会将有关非洲单一航空运输市场的议案提交议会审议。”
他还表示：“一些国家称他们仍在评估国际航空公司对他们国内市场的影响，斟酌外国航空公司在国内领空的运营规则以及双边航空服务协定的修正案。他们也尚未就与国际航空公司订立新的多边航空服务协议达成一致。”

肯尼亚航空公司巨额的亏损使其深陷财务窘境，使该国立法机构不得不在7月将其收归国有。在此之前，肯尼亚航空公司为了增加收益，曾于2019年6月18日提出接管乔莫·肯雅塔国际机场的私人投资提案，但被立法机构拒绝。

国有化就意味着要建立一家航空控股公司来管理该国的航空部门。控股公司将包括四个子公司：肯尼亚机场管理局，肯尼亚航空公司，乔莫·肯雅塔国际机场和一所中央航空学院。当然，政府仍是航空公司的最大股东，拥有48.9％的股份。法航荷航集团占7.80％，当地银行占38.1％。

国会同意将肯尼亚航空公司国有化是为了增强其竞争力，使其有能力与同是国有的埃塞俄比亚航空公司等竞争。此举还可使肯尼亚航空公司免于债务危机，减少其亏损，并为其购买更多飞机提供资金支持。

根据国际航空运输协会的预测，尽管问题不断，但如果保持目前的趋势，肯尼亚航空公司的增长率将达到249％，到2037年每年将为肯尼亚的GDP贡献113亿美元，提供85.9万个就业机会。

《肯尼亚航空价值报告》研究了航空公司及其供应链在带动就业和消费方面的贡献，航空业对贸易和旅游的作用，以及航空公司用户的投资情况。根据国际航空运输协会的数据，航空运输业为肯尼亚经济贡献了32亿美元，占肯尼亚2017年GDP的4.6％。2017年，肯尼亚共接待480万外国旅客，创造了41万个就业机会。这些旅客带来了9亿美元的消费，又创造了1.5万个就业机会。而航空业供应链上的消费又有6亿美元，创造了9.6万个就业机会。乘飞机抵达的旅客在餐饮方面的花费是16亿美元，创造了25.7万个就业机会。

根据该报告，2017年，非洲是乘飞机入境肯尼亚的最大客源地，旅客总量达310万人次，占所有入境旅客的70％。欧洲以58.5万人次仅次于非洲，是其次是亚太地区（28.4万），中东（23.3万）和美国（21万）。

“虽然肯尼亚在签证开放度方面在全球排名靠前，但在航空运输基础设施方面却名落50名之外。为了释放航空业带来的社会和经济效益，肯尼亚需要改善基础设施，开放天空，保证安全，利用新技术提高效率，改善乘客体验。”

“肯尼亚航空促进了商业发展，提供了就业，改善了物流运输，极大促进了旅游业和贸易的发展，是肯尼亚社会经济发展的主要驱动力。而政府为促进航空业发展制定的政策及简化入境口岸手续的措施已卓有成效。继续坚持这些政策必将在肯尼亚和周边国家释放更大的发展潜力，”肯尼亚航空公司集团总经理兼首席执行官塞巴斯蒂安·米科斯表示。

两国合作应对基础设施及技术挑战

肯尼亚航空部门面临的诸多挑战只有与中国密切合作才能解决。肯尼亚在培训飞行员方面能力不足，而聘用其他国家的飞行员会增加航空运输的运营成本，因此中国可以利用其技术优势帮助内罗毕。
改善基础设施、提高技术水平也是一大难题。肯尼亚航空运输蓬勃发展，但全国只有三个符合国际标准的机场（乔莫·肯雅塔国际机场，基苏木莫伊国际机场和蒙巴萨莫伊国际机场），远远落后于南非、埃塞俄比亚等竞争对手。

但是，肯尼亚积极参与中国国家主席习近平在2013年提出的“一带一路”倡议，并且非常重视互联互通，因此中国可以与内罗毕在此框架内开展广泛合作，扩建现有机场并建造新机场，帮助内罗毕的机场配备人工智能以及自助值机等现代技术设备。

显然，肯尼亚及整个非洲在航空运输方面遇到的各种挑战和问题都使得非洲单一航空运输市场计划目前无法实施。

⬆2019年6月12日，随着中国南方航空CZ6043航班抵达肯尼亚首都内罗毕的乔莫·肯雅塔国际机场，中国又多了一条通往非洲的“空中走廊”（新华社 吕帅摄）

英文版

African aviation integration needs an implementation framework

By VICTOR ONYANGO  Journalist  for The Daily Nation, Kenya

As the World Bank predicts that Africa's economy remains the fastest economy in the world currently, same is expected in its aviation as the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects annual expansion of 5 percent in the next 20 years.

African aviation market status

At the moment, Africa has 731 airports and 419 airlines with an aviation industry that supports around 6.9 million jobs and $80 billion in economic activity.

There various prospects for growth in aviation across the African continent while still maintaining enthusiasm that the huge potential can actually be realized.

It is clear that Africa represents the last frontier for aviation development, but impotent government transport strategies and ongoing protectionism practices continue to limit its success. There is a mild hope of regulatory progress, while perhaps the greatest optimism attaches to some very persistent attempts to expand low-cost carrier (LCC) operations in the region.

While it is evident that aviation in Africa has the potential to fuel economic growth, several barriers exist. Weak infrastructure, high ticket prices, poor connectivity and lack of liberalization are some of the many challenges.

For example, airport infrastructure in most African countries is old-fashioned and not built to serve the growing volume of passengers or cargo. Airlines and airports are often managed by government entities or regulatory bodies. Foreign investment is discouraged.

Progress and obstacles in the integration of African aviation

In January 2018, the African Union (AU) crafted the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) project to create a single air transport market in Africa. This is in line with the AU’s Agenda 2063 which is to among other things; allow significant freedom of air transportation in Africa.

The primary aim of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) is to implement the 1988 Yamoussoukro Declaration.

The launch of the SAATM is certainly progress, it but threatens just to be yet another unfulfilled landmark in African aviation – unless the industry works closely with governments to break the barriers that are restricting the continent from reaching the levels of which it really should be capable.

To realize this it will have to take SAATM being operational, but which, at the moment, there seems to be a reluctance to join by many of the countries.

As of February this year, 28 countries had joined the SAATM. This is only five countries more than the 23 that had signed their commitment at the launch.

At such a pace of adoption, it is doubtful 40 countries will have joined by the end of this year as projected by the African Union.

And, if the slow pace persists, it may even not be possible that all 55 member states of the AU will have joined by 2021 as expected.
But there has been regulatory progress in some parts of the continent in the past year, most notably in Maputo, Mozambique, which has opened its domestic market to foreign airlines, and while some airlines are proving successful in enhancing African connectivity on an intercontinental scale, efforts to grow intra-continent connectivity continue to face hurdles.

The high taxation that almost all African governments impose on aviation fuel means that the operating costs of the local airlines are among the highest in the world, while costly monopolies among service providers at the different airports continue to blight the industry.
Unfair competition is another headache in the full implementation of SAATM because most governments protect state-owned airlines against private ones. For example, Government supported airlines in Nigeria attain loans at 2 percent interest rates and no Value Added Tax while private organization attain loans at 28 percent interest rate and pay VAT on top of that. The private airlines also do not have access to forex.

Hence there is need for competition policy which will aim to provide and maintain a level playing field where economic actors, and in this case, nations, can freely and fairly compete and that will ensure that the different nations do not engage in practices that would put any other actor at a disadvantage.

The Competition legislation in the aviation industry is key in ensuring fair playing ground for all signatories however, it also shields signatory nations from external competition.

Restrictions on free movement, free movement of people and trade is an integral aspect of the treaty however, passengers will still need prerequisite visa. As it stands, there is limited movement of people within the Africa unlike the EU where open skies is thriving.

Charges and taxes, across the continent, there is a lack of uniform charges and taxes. This also touches on unfair trade practices. Some African countries subsidize their local operators and when they fly into foreign states and charge full fare

Non-protection of indigenous airlines, there is the threat of non-African investors abusing the open skies deal by setting up airlines in some African countries and taking full advantage of the policy as there is no way to ascertain the shareholder structure.

Lastly, unfair financial gain while pulling out of SAATM Nigeria cited that Ethiopia makes 45 per cent of its income from Nigeria, yet Ethiopian Airlines has not employed Nigerians as aircrew or ground technical staff. A lack of an implementation framework despite the predicted benefits, SAATM is facing an adoption challenge across the continent. At its announcement, SAATM only had 23 out of 55 Member States accenting to it, about half of the original 44 member states. In East Africa, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia are part of the treaty, but Tanzania, Uganda and Burundi declined to sign up.

African aviation integration should be implemented in phases and in subregions

A recent analysis by Deloitte, the international consulting and financial advisory firm, gives credence to some of the concerns underlying the SAATM adoption challenges across the continent.

Deloitte finds that SAATM lacks the proper mechanisms required to govern the different airlines. That, SAATM differs with the original 1988 Yamoussoukro Declaration in its lack of clear mechanisms and rules that would be used to implement the single air transport market.

Among other suggestions, it urges the AU to not be in a hurry to implement all provisions of SAATM at once. The Yamoussoukro Decision proposed a phased approach through regional blocks that would be necessary to allow the proper harmonization of the air transport market to the benefit of all stakeholders.

That said, the dividends make it positive that implementing the SAATM is inevitable. However, given the slow pace of adoption and outright reluctance by many of the states, Deloitte’s findings are worth looking into if implementation by all 55 states is to be realized.

Kenyan aviation industry opportunity

It is further noted that the potential growth of the African air transport is further showcased by the fact that Africa is home to 16 per cent of the world’s population and yet only has a share of 2.2 per cent of global air passenger traffic.

When this is going on, Kenya Airways (KQ) which is one of the biggest airlines in the continent has not joined SAATM despite President Uhuru Kenyatta promising that the country will join, the East Africa giant is yet to join.

“Kenya is also committed towards the full realization of the African Union’s initiative that will see Africa converging into one air service market. To this end, Kenya is one of the 25 states that have so far signed up for the SAATM,” Kenya’s President Kenyatta said, while opening the International Civil Aviation Organization's Air Services Negotiations conference in Nairobi last year.

Kenya is yet to align its national laws with the treaty and as such it could not sign on to its implementation.

According to David Pkosing, the Transport Committee Chairperson in Kenya's national assembly : “The ratification has to go through parliament and we are made aware that some countries are yet to do that. That could explain their no-show at the signing ceremony. we will soon table our recommendable on SAATM on the floor of the house for approval.”

“Some of these countries said they are still assessing the impact of international carriers in their domestic market, the terms and conditions on how these foreign carriers would operate within domestic airspace and the amendments of bilateral air service agreement. They are also yet to agree to new multilateral air service agreements for international carriers,” he added.
KQ has been facing a lot of financial woes due to rampant losses incurred by the airline which forced the country's legislators in July to nationalized the courier.

This is after the legislators rejected the airline’s Private Initiated Investment Proposal dated 18 June 2019 to take over Jomo Kenyatta International Airport as part of a plan to improve its revenue.

The nationalization will entail the formation of an Aviation Holding Company to run the country’s aviation sector. The holding company will consist of four subsidiaries including the Kenya Airports Authority (KAA), Kenya Airways (KQ), Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), and a centralized aviation college. Still, major ownership of the airline will remain with the government, with the state owning 48.9 percent of the company. Other owners include Air France KLM with 7.8 percent and local banks who own 38.1 percent of the Airline’s stake.

Parliament’s consent to nationalize KQ is anticipated to make the airline more competitive, allowing it to challenge players like Ethiopian Airlines, a state-owned airline, among other competitors. Additionally, the move will save the airline from its debt quicksand, cut its stemming losses, and provide financial muscle to acquire more fleets.

Despite of the incessant woes, according to IATA, the sector will grow by 249 per cent over the period if the current trends are maintained, contributing $11.3 billion annually to Kenya’s GDP and supporting an estimated 859,000 jobs by 2037.

The report on Value of Aviation Report for Kenya looked at the total contribution of jobs and spending generated by airlines and their supply chain; trade and tourism flows; investments by users of all airlines serving a particular country as well as the city pair connections that make these flows possible.

According to IATA, the air transport sector contributed $3.2 billion to the economy, amounting to 4.6 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2017. Kenya received 4.8 million foreign passengers in 2017, which supported 410,000 jobs. About $0.9 billion was spent directly by passengers, which supported 15,000 jobs. Another $0.6 billion was spent on the industry’s supply chain, supporting 96,000 jobs. Tourists who arrived by air spent $1.6 billion, supporting 257,000 jobs in the hospitality sector.

According to the report, Africa remains the biggest source of air passengers to Kenya, contributing 3.1 million passengers or 70 per cent of total visitors in 2017. Europe came next with 585,000 passengers followed by Asia-Pacific 284,000, the Middle East, 233,000 and the United States 210,000.

“However, while Kenya ranks globally in the top 10% of countries for visa openness, it remains in the bottom half for air transport infrastructure. To unlock the full social and economic benefits that aviation brings, Kenya needs to improve its infrastructure, open its skies, remain vigilant and firm on safety, while taking advantage of new technologies to improve efficiency and the passenger experience,” he added.

“Kenya Airways has been a major driver in Kenya’s economic and social development, promoting commerce, providing jobs and vital logistics to boost tourism and trade. The development of policies that support the growth of aviation and reduce bureaucracy at the points of entry are paying off. Continuing this policy focus will certainly unlock even greater development potential for Kenya and the neighboring countries,” said Sebastian Mikosz, Group Managing Director & CEO, Kenya Airways.

Cooperation between the two countries to address infrastructure and technology challenges

Kenya's aviation sector faces raft of challenges which can only be rectified with geared cooperation between Nairobi and China. Beijing's with its vast expertise, it can help Nairobi in training more pilots because Kenya does not have enough capacity to do so hence hiring of pilots from other countries makes the operation of the air transport expensive.

Meeting enhanced infrastructure and technology in Nairobi's aviation sector is another hard nut to crush. Despite having a vibrant air transport, Kenya has only three airports (JKIA, Moi International Airport-Kisumu and Mombasa) which meet international standards, however, these are far below the bar of its competitors like South Africa, Ethiopia among others.

But since the country is an active member of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 and pays a lot of attention on connectivity, China could partner with Nairobi in this area and expand the existing airports as well as construct new ones.

Nairobi's airport is yet to be equipped with modern technologies and this is one area which calls for wider cooperation between Kenya and Beijing,  the application of artificial intelligence (AI) is needed in that port,  self check-in machines needed too.
Apparently, challenges facing Kenya's air transport cuts across Africa and many issues have made implementation of SAATM almost impossible so far.