借力非洲一体化实现经济独立

尽管遭遇奴隶制、殖民主义和掠夺性经济行为，非洲大陆人民及其领导人从未失去经济独立的梦想。但人们一致认为，非洲国家只有成为自力更生、相互依存的经济体，能够在全球商业和贸易中占据应有的地位，才算实现真正的独立自主。

全球经济动荡影响非洲发展

当前的全球经济秩序严重偏向西方国家，经济实力强的国家在资源分配和贸易方面有更多发言权。中美之间的贸易战使当前的世界经济形势变得更加复杂。

虽然从表面上看，经济对峙只发生在世界上最大的经济体之间，然而，影响已经波及与中国拥有大量贸易的非洲国家了。

由于中国需求量下降，一些铜矿和钴矿被迫关闭，赞比亚和刚果民主共和国等商品出口国贸易额下降，就业机会减少。

非洲开发银行的《2019年非洲经济展望》报告指出，鉴于非洲60％以上的出口销往美国、中国和欧洲，70％进口来自这三个国家和地区，因此遭受贸易战伤害的可能性非常高。

现存全球市场有利于规划大的经济体，而依赖商品和原材料的非洲经济体无法承受其动荡。这对实现经济独立的梦想产生了长期影响。

非盟制定发展蓝图

《2063年议程》是非洲联盟设计的发展蓝图和总体规划，旨在于2063年之前将非洲转变成一个民主的经济强国。在此议程框架下，非洲将成为一个实现充分一体化、充分联通的大陆。

《2063年议程》强调一体化发展是确保非洲实现包容性增长和可持续发展目标的重要基础之一。《2063年议程》的愿景强调，非洲需要建设遍布整个大陆的世界一流的基础设施，并通过更新、更大胆的倡议建立铁路、公路、海上和空中网络连接非洲大陆，实现互联互通；以及建设区域和大陆联合电网，同时发展信息和通信技术ICT。

非盟《2063年议程》大陆框架，以促进基础设施发展，例如《非洲基础设施发展计划》（PIDA），为非洲各国提供了一个通用框架，建设必要的基础设施，实现更加一体化的运输、能源、信息和通信系统和跨境水系，以促进贸易增长，创造就业机会。非盟认定的能够促进大陆内基础设施和自力更生的关键项目有：连接非洲所有首都的综合高速铁路网、有望增强非洲中部能源安全的印加大坝、确保非洲各首都城市之间区域互联的非洲单一航空运输市场，以推动非洲大陆经济一体化和增长议程落地。

着力建设非洲大陆自由贸易区

《2063年议程》的旗舰倡议是建设非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCTA），在大陆地理区域内建立特定区域，非洲联盟成员国之间的商品和服务可以在此区域不受限制地流动。非洲自由贸易协定旨在通过全面和互利的贸易协定促进非洲成员国之间的内部贸易，其中包括商品和服务贸易、投资、知识产权和竞争政策。该协定于2019年7月生效，惠及非洲54个国家，覆盖超过10亿人口，GDP总计超过3万亿美元。

非洲联盟高度重视贸易在发展中经济体中的作用，并认识到贸易是经济增长和可持续发展的强大引擎。

在非洲，贸易壁垒导致区域经济分化，使得非洲在全球贸易市场中的角色定位基本上为售卖原材料（商品）交换制成品，在全球贸易中所占比重微不足道。大宗商品价格不断波动带来巨大挑战，同时非洲自然资源增值有限，非洲对出口过度依赖，容易受到外部冲击。

非洲自由贸易区不仅鼓励非洲内部贸易，同时还能够在与世界其他地区和国家开展贸易时巩固非洲的地位。

非盟委员会选择农业和工业化作为实现非洲经济独立的关键领域。

中国模式

越来越多的非洲国家将目光投向东方，尤其是中国，寻求发展和管理经济的灵感。

许多人认为，中国在短短二十年间，帮助数百万人摆脱贫困，这方面经验值得借鉴。

同时，改革推动中国农业持续高效发展，以及中国特色的经济发展模式引起了许多非洲领导人和非洲人民的共鸣，他们认为中国理论将有助于更快地实现经济独立。

坎帕拉经济分析师弗雷德·穆胡穆扎（Fred

Muhumuza）博士对此表示赞同，但他认为，要想使中国模式在非洲获得成功，就必须配套同样的政治意愿和对腐败现象的零容忍。“这更多的有关政治模式而不是经济模式。后者取决于政治，这是非洲最大的问题。我们需要像坦桑尼亚马古富力总统这样的领导者，既要充满激情，又要付诸实际行动”他说。

穆胡穆扎认为，由于中国有其本国特殊的情况，非洲国家不可能完全复制粘贴中国模式，但可以根据本国环境汲取切实可行的发展经验。

一带一路联通非洲

习近平主席于2013年在哈萨克斯坦提出一带一路倡议，非洲也受益其中。该计划是一项互联互通计划，将亚洲、非洲和欧洲与中国的贸易和基础设施联系在一起。长期以来，基础设施短板一直阻碍非洲经济发展，而现在，这个倡议让非洲看到了希望。

长期以来，非洲经济体囿于西方跨国机构贷款条件苛刻、偿还成本高昂，以及对原材料进出口的依赖，现在，得益于一带一路倡议，非洲国家有机会进行工业化转型，为本国人民带来福祉。正如前埃塞俄比亚总理海尔马里亚姆·德萨莱尼（Hailemariam

Desalegn）在2017年5月在北京举行的“一带一路”国际合作论坛开幕式上所说的那样，一带一路倡议为非洲提供了弥补其基础设施差距，并充分参与全球经济的机会。多年来，由于缺乏关键的基础设施运送人员和货物、吸引投资，非洲及其12亿人口的潜力一直无法发挥。

中国在非洲修建了2000多公里铁路、3000多公里公路、港口、大坝、100余所学校和100所医院。中国在非洲的投资额超过1000亿美元，在非洲这片土地上，中国人找到了与非洲人一样的归属感。

乌干达需突破工业化瓶颈

乌干达已将工业化转型确定为实现独立、互助、可持续的经济，创造就业和增长的途径之一。在称为“2040年愿景”的乌干达社会和经济发展计划中，工业部门的发展也被摆在十分重要的位置。根据该计划，乌干达力争使工业为其国内生产总值贡献31％，目前，这个数字仅为7％，远低于东非共同体10％的平均水平。

乌干达认为，电力是工业化的主要瓶颈之一。2006年，由于严重的电力短缺，该国的工业化进程遭受重创。结果，一些制造商转移到了邻国肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚，以便于利用可靠并廉价的电力。

自2006年以来，乌干达在能源项目上的投资已超过30亿美元。由中国水利电力对外公司承建的伊辛巴水电站项目于3月竣工。由中国水利水电建设股份有限公司承建的卡鲁马水电站（600MW）有望于明年完工。乌干达还在道路基础设施上投资了数亿美元，以实现边界的互联互通。同时，还有望在2023年开始开采位于中西部的石油储备。

穆胡穆扎提醒说，非洲国家之间只有互助，而不是相互孤立，才能更快实现可持续发展。“各国经济孤立发展不再是明智之举。我们需要基于战略关系实施融合发展。这是全球价值链的理念，单一单元需要成为大型生产链的一部分。只需想象一下研发软件公司，虽然每个许可证售价100美元，但每年出售数百万个许可证，以及旅游业，从欣赏动植物，到发展医学和教育旅游业等等。”他补充说：“我们要互帮互助，但必须清楚本国特色和重点，这才是我们要做的正确的事。”

英文版

Uganda banks on more African integration to achieve economic independence

By Ronald Kato  Journalist of  africanews  Uganda

As
a continent that was wrecked by slavery, colonialism and predatory
economic practices, the dream of economic independence has not been lost
on the people of Africa and their leaders. There is agreement that true
sovereignty will only come when African countries develop self-reliant,
interdependent economies that allow them to take their rightful place
in global business and trade.

The global economic climate

The
current global economic order is deeply twisted in favor of the West .
economically powerful countries have more say regarding the distribution
of resources and trade. Already serious, the current world economic
situation has been made even more complex by the trade war between the
United States and China.While officially the impasse is only between the
world’s largest economies, the consequences have sucked in African
countries that are already doing a lot of trade with Beijing.

Already,
commodity-exporting countries such as Zambia and the Democratic
Republic of Congo have lost revenue and jobs as some copper and cobalt
mines have been forced to shut down due to weak demand from China.

The
African Development Bank (AfDB)’s African Economic Outlook 2019 report
noted that Africa’s chances of being hurt by the trade war were high,
given that over 60 per cent of Africa’s exports go to the US, China and
Europe, and more than 70 per cent of Africa’s imports originate from
these countries.

Volatility in global markets, already built to
favour big economies hurt the resilience of African economies which
mostly rely on commodity and raw materials. This has long term
consequences on the dream of achieving economic independence.
AU agenda 2063

Agenda
2063 is a blueprint and masterplan designed by the African Union to
turn Africa into an economic and democratic powerhouse by the year 2063.
The plan envisions a fully connected and integrated Africa.

Agenda
2063 emphasizes the need for integration as one of the key foundations
for ensuring Africa achieves its goals for inclusive and sustainable
growth and development. Aspiration 2 of Agenda 2063 places import on the
need for Africa to develop world class infrastructure that crisscrosses
Africa and which will improve connectivity through newer and bolder
initiatives to link the continent by rail, road, sea and air; and
developing regional and continental power pools, as well as ICT.
The
Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), which provides a
common framework for African stakeholders to build the infrastructure
necessary for more integrated transport, energy, ICT and trans-boundary
water networks to boost trade, spark growth and create jobs.

Some
of the projects the bloc has cited as key to boosting intra-continental
infrastructure and self-reliance include an Integrated High Speed Rail
Network which is meant to link all African capitals, the Grand Inga Dam
which is supposed to boost energy security in central Africa and the
establishment of a single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), which
aims to ensure intra-regional connectivity between the capital cities of
Africa and create a single unified air transport market in Africa, as
an impetus to the continent’s economic integration and growth agenda.

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCTA)

The
Agenda 2063 flagship initiative, the African Continental Free Trade
Area (AfCTA) refers to a continental geographic zone where goods and
services move among member states of the African Union with no
restrictions. The AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade by providing a
comprehensive and mutually beneficial trade agreement among the member
states, covering trade in goods and services, investment, intellectual
property rights and competition policy.

The agreement came
into force in July of 2019. It brings together 54 African countries with
a combined population of more than 1 billion people and a combined GDP
of over US$3tn.

The African Union has placed great importance in
the role that trade plays in developing economies and recognizes that
trade is a powerful engine for economic growth and sustainable
development.

In Africa, barriers to trade have resulted in a
fragmented regional economy that has overtime positioned Africa’s role
in the global trade market as fundamentally being a raw material
(commodities) suppliers in exchange for manufactured goods, and
rendering the continent’s share in global trade insignificant.

The
challenges arising from continually fluctuating commodities prices and
Africa’s limited value addition to its natural resources renders Africa
vulnerable to the external shocks derived from export dependency.The
AfCTA aims to encourage not just intra-African trade but also strengthen
Africa’s position while trading with other regions and countries of the
world.The AU commission has also singled out agriculture and
industrialization as key sectors that are critical in Africa’s quest for
economic independence.

The China model

More
African countries have been looking East, to Beijing in particular, for
inspiration on how to grow and manage their economies.

Many
find China’s experience with fighting poverty relatable. China was able
to lift millions of its people out of poverty in just two decades. The
reforms that propelled China’s agriculture which was agrarian to
efficiency and its state-led economic development model resonate with
many African leaders and people who think that Beijing’s theory will
help deliver economic independence faster.

Kampala-based
economic analyst Dr. Fred Muhumuza agrees but argues that for the China
model to succeed, it has to be matched with the same level of political
will and intolerance to corruption.

“It is more of the political
model than the economic model. The later depends on the politics and
that is the biggest problem for Africa. We need the Magufuli kind of
leaders who add zeal and action to the passion,” he said. Muhumuza
argues that African countries may not copy-paste China’s model entirely
because of Beijing’s unique conditions, but that they can take some
elements that can work in their environments.

The Belt and road Initiative

When
President Xi Jinping unveiled the Belt and Road initiative in 2013,
Africa lay at the centre of it. The program is a trade and
infrastructure connectivity plan linking Asia, Africa and Europe to
China. Africa, long locked out of the global economy owing to its
massive infrastructure deficit now has a chance.

African
economies, long beleaguered by hugely conditional, expensive credit from
western multinational lenders, dependence on imports and export of raw
materials, now have a chance to industrialize and create prosperity for
their people, thanks to the belt and road initiative.

As former
Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said at the opening of the
belt and road forum for international cooperation in Beijing in May
2017, the belt and road initiative gives Africa a chance to fix its
infrastructure gaps and to participate fully in the global economy.

For
many years the potential of Africa and that of its 1.2bn people has
been held back by the absence of critical infrastructure to move people
and goods, but also to attract investment.

China has built
more than 2,000 km of railroads, 3,000 km of highways, ports, power dams
and over 100 schools and 100 hospitals in Africa.
With over $100bn worth of investments in Africa, China is as vested in this continent just as Africans are.

Uganda’s own path to economic independence

Uganda
has identified industrialization as one of the avenues to build an
independent, inter-dependent and sustainable economy that creates jobs
and growth.

Industrial sector development also features
prominently in Uganda’s social and economic development plan known as
‘Vision 2040’. According to the plan, Uganda seeks to have industry
contribute 31% to her GDP. The sector contributes only 7% currently, way
below the East African community average of 10%.

Uganda
identified electricity as one of the major bottlenecks to
industrialization. The country’s efforts to industrialize took a dive in
2006 when the country was hit by a major power shortage. As a result,
some manufacturers moved to neighbors Kenya and Tanzania to take
advantage of reliable and cheaper power.

Since 2006, Uganda has
invested over $3bn in energy projects. A new dam built by China
International Water and Electric went online in April. Another one,
Karuma (600MW), contracted by Sinohydro, is expected to be completed
next year.

The country has also invested hundreds of millions of
dollars on road infrastructure to achieve smooth border to border
connectivity. The country is also looking to begin extracting its oil
reserves located in the mid-west in 2023.

But Muhumuza warns that
interdependence, rather than absolute independence would unlock
sustainable development faster.“Economic independence is not wise
anymore. We need integratiin but based on strategic relatiinships. It is
a word of global value chains where one needs to be part of big
production chains. Just imagine companies that produce software and sell
millions of licenses at $100 per year, think of tourism, from looking
for flora and fauna to medical and education tourism, etc”, he said.

“Dependence but with a clear 'self-centered' focus is the way to go”, Muhumuza added.