减少非洲对援助的依赖

截至2018年，对非洲援助总额估计在1.3万亿至1.5万亿美元之间。这一数字高得惊人，但效果并不明显，因为非洲是世界上贫困人口最多的地区。
非洲的发展严重依靠外部世界援助，而不依靠伙伴关系，进行贸易往来。专家们呼吁，非洲各国应不断完善政策，并实施计划，促进企业发展、创造就业、刺激经济。
非洲各国政府注意到此类呼吁，并在若干场合提及。为此，许多国家制订了宏大的发展计划，目的在于促进经济增长、增加就业、吸引外资、加快工业发展、减少贫困。计划虽好，但实施的道路却是荆棘密布。

政府发布《2017-2020经济复苏和增长计划》

尼日利亚在2017年制定了《2017-2020经济复苏和增长计划》，希望从根本上扭转其经济在2016年第二季度陷入衰退的局面。

《经济复苏和增长计划》旨在利用科学、技术和创新来推动增长。它还力求解决尼日利亚经济增长的一系列障碍，特别是燃料短缺、电力供应不稳定、运输成本高、外汇短缺、商业条例不友好，以及必要技能和适当技术短缺等问题。

此项计划力求实现国民生产总值（2017年至2020年期间）年均增长4.62%的目标。尼日利亚总统穆罕马杜·布哈里在启动此项计划时表示，政府将致力于实现他在竞选期间的三个重点承诺：打击腐败、提升国内安全、复苏经济。

为实现《经济复苏和增长计划》的目标，政府设定了5个优先执行的重点事项：1、通过低通胀、稳定的汇率和可持续的财政和外部平衡，来稳定宏观经济环境；2、利用农业实现粮食安全、创造就业机会并节省粮食进口外汇；3、确保能源充足(电力和石油产品)，至2020年至少拥有10千兆瓦的发电能力，并通过更多地使用可再生能源来改善能源结构；4、改善尼日利亚交通基础设施不足的状况，以支持经济发展，并降低主要成本以及对企业的制约；5、以中小企业为中心，推动工业化进程。

自项目启动以来，尼日利亚政府一直量力而为，积极推动《经济复苏和增长计划》。这些努力取得了显著成果。2018年第三季度，实际国民生产总值增速为1.81%，2019年第三季度，经济同比增长2.28%。2019年第三季度，石油产业同比增长6.49%，前一季的同比增幅为7.13%。尼日利亚每天生产204万桶原油，达到了2016年第一季度以来的最高水平，高于去年同期的每日194万桶。由此，石油行业占国内生产总值的9.77%，高于去年同期的9.38%；非石油产业上涨1.85%，高于上一季度1.65%的涨幅。

低于既定目标

尽管经济一直保持稳定增长，但这一增速仍低于《经济复苏和增长计划》预定的2019年国民生产总值达到4.5%的目标。

除非在接下来的三个季度里经济明显好转，否则《经济复苏和增长计划》的预定目标就无法达到。非洲开发银行认为并预测，尼日利亚今年经济将仅增长2.3%；国际货币基金组织预测，尼日利亚经济增长为2%。如果预测正确，那么2019年将是连续第三年经济增长率低于《经济复苏和增长计划》的预定目标。

《经济复苏和增长计划》的大胆预测并不局限于经济增长，因为它还预测今年尼日利亚的失业率将下降至12.9%。但截至2018年第三季度，失业率几乎是这个数字的2倍。而且，失业率已连续13个季度攀升，下降的可能性微乎其微。

尼日利亚经济严重依赖原油，原油占国家外汇收入的85%，占政府收入的2/3。美国智库布鲁金斯学会1月发布的报告显示，如果尼日利亚不进行改革，减少对石油的依赖，那么将面临十年内无法实现经济平稳增长的风险。

预计到2050年，尼日利亚将成为世界第三人口大国。国际货币基金组织表示，尼日利亚需要“更快的增长来提高人均收入，并大大降低高失业率，消减贫困。”

采取有效措施

但是，希望并没有丧失。尼日利亚政府正坚定不移地进行以下几项任务:大量投资国内农业，缓解居高不下的通货膨胀，改善生活条件，帮助年轻人找到工作，摆脱对石油的过度依赖，实现经济多样化。

8月，布哈里总统要求尼日利亚央行停止为进口粮食提供外汇，以促进本国农业生产，加强尼日利亚的粮食安全。同月，尼日利亚政府关闭了陆地边境，以遏制走私货物的流入，希望增加本国粮食产量，如大米等。尼日利亚海关当局表示，所有进口货物都应通过港口进入，这些港口可以更容易地进行监控，并产生亟需的收入。

尼日利亚关闭部分陆地边境的决定已经在稻米产业价值链上结出了硕果，数百家稻米加工厂如雨后春笋般涌现。而在联邦的许多产稻州，那些原本垂死挣扎的工厂现在正恢复生机。尽管这些举措正在创造就业机会，越来越多的人开始回归稻米生产，但目前生产力水平仍远远低于其迅速增长人口（约2亿）的需求。主要的障碍是机械化率低，难以获得负担得起的融资，以及缺乏技术技能等。

更多合作 而非援助

农业发展与合作。数万亿美元的援助，对非洲而言影响力却很小，这一事实表明非洲大陆的增长主要取决于关于援助的谈判结果，而不是取决于它应该得到什么，这更加凸显了非洲与外部世界深化商业合作的必要性。例如，根据普华永道的报告，尼日利亚若要促进国内农业发展，实现大米生产的自给自足，需要进一步加强与其伙伴国的合作，尤其是要加强与中国的合作，中国的农业机械化率高达8马力/公顷。  

中国一直积极参与非洲各国的农业发展计划。从1960年到2018年，中国在非洲完成了数百个农业援助项目，包括技能培训。除其他伙伴的支持外，这一努力也取得了丰硕的成果，非洲的农业产量在过去二十年中稳步增长。为了应对大米产业价值链和其他农业分部门的挑战，尼日利亚应该利用与中国的战略合作来发展农业，并从手工转向大规模的机械化系统。

尼日利亚有大量年轻人口，朝气蓬勃，但因为农业所必要的身体劳作，许多人对此并不感兴趣。而如果农业部门完全机械化，这些年轻人将很容易被吸引到其中。政府农业计划也为中国企业在尼日利亚投资稻米产业价值链打开了机遇之门。它是保证最大回报的投资领域之一。

基础设施建设与合作。尼日利亚人民强烈抗议各项基础设施不足。经济的各个领域都存在关键基础设施不足的问题，其中最明显的是运输和电力。

中国的贷款为大型基础设施项目提供了资金，这些项目包括机场、水力发电、公路和铁路等。通过中非合作论坛，以及尼日利亚与中国的伙伴关系，在2016年至2018年期间，尼日利亚在全国启动了价值超过50亿美元的重要基础设施项目。

投资关键基础设施，尤其是电力、公路、铁路、港口和宽带网络，是尼日利亚经济发展计划的重要组成部分。该计划指出，消除基础设施方面的差距需要与发展伙伴进行合作。鉴于尼日利亚在基础设施建设方面的具体情况，没有任何合作机制比中国的“一带一路”倡议更能应对这些挑战。

尼日利亚对基础设施建设的重视意味着，该计划为尼日利亚解决基础设施融资缺口提供了大量机会。根据非洲开发银行的预测，到2044年，尼日利亚的基础设施融资缺口将达到3万亿美元，或每年约1000亿美元。因此，尼日利亚需要通过“一带一路”倡议积极与中国进行合作。

能源发展与合作。尼日利亚经济发展计划的主要重点之一是确保能源充足，到2020年实现至少10千兆瓦的发电能力，并更多地使用可再生能源，改善能源结构。尼日利亚希望得到中国的支持，实现这一目标。2019年6月，在中非合作论坛2018年北京峰会成果落实协调人会议期间，尼日利亚呼吁中国支持立即启动尼日利亚东北部塔拉巴州58亿美元的曼比拉水电站项目。这座3050兆瓦的水电站已经规划了30多年。该项目的实施将为尼日利亚人民带来了社会效益和经济效益。

技术分享。中国的进步在很大程度上归功于1978年实行的改革开放政策，中国从一个贫穷的国家迅速崛起，成为一个震惊世界的工业大国。曾经被视为落后的中国技术，如今正与发达国家的技术展开激烈的竞争。

尼日利亚不仅希望从中国获得基础设施建设的资金，还希望这个亚洲巨人将其技术分享给其他国家。2019年6月，尼日利亚驻华大使巴巴·艾哈迈德·吉达，在北京中非合作论坛会议上。强调科技对非洲工业化的重要性，并呼吁中国政府规划未来合作框架时,要鼓励向非洲技术人员进行技术转让。

《经济复苏和增长计划》的2020年最后期限越来越近，尼日利亚期待中国本着合作共赢、共享利益的精神，分享经验和技术知识，提高人力资本能力，实现技术进步，这是尼日利亚经济发展计划的主要目标之一。

英文版

Reducing Africa’s aid dependency

By Abdullateef Salau  Journalist for Daily Trust, Nigerian

The figure is staggeringly high, but the result is less-impactful. As of 2018, the aid package to Africa is estimated to be between $1.3 trillion to $1. 5 trillion dollars. Yet, the continent is home to the world's largest poor population.

Africa's heavy reliance on the outside world for its growth has made the continent aid-dependent and fostered paternalism, as opposed to partnership. Instead, experts have urged that efforts should be geared towards scaling up policies and implementation plans that spur business growth, job creation and stimulation of the economy.

African governments are not unaware of this claim, and on several occasions alluded to it. In response, many had designed ambitious development plans aims at engendering economic growth, employment, inflow of foreign direct investments, industrial development and poverty reduction. Though lofty are the plans but the road to their implementation is full of impediments.

For instance, Nigeria, in 2017, launched “Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP)” to ultimately reverse the negative trajectory of its economy, which slipped into recession in the second quarter of 2016.

The policy, a medium-term plan for 2017 – 2020, was developed by the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari to restore economic growth, build a globally competitive economy and accelerate inclusive growth by investing in the Nigerian people.

ERGP is designed to use science, technology and innovation to drive growth. It also features provisions for tackling impediments to economic growth in Nigeria, especially fuel scarcity, unstable power supply, high cost of transportation, scarcity of foreign exchange, unfriendly business regulations and shortage of requisite skills and appropriate technology.

The plan seeks to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.62 per cent average annual growth between 2017 and 2020. From the estimated negative growth of -1.54 per cent recorded in 2016, real GDP is projected to grow to 2.19 per cent in 2017 and 4.8 per cent in 2018 before peaking at 7.0 per cent in 2020.

While launching the plan, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari said his administration is committed to delivering on the three key areas that he promised during the campaigns; which are to tackle corruption, insecurity and ensure economic growth.

To achieve the objectives of the ERGP, the government set five key execution priorities:  a. Stabilizing the macroeconomic environment with low inflation, stable exchange rates and sustainable fiscal and external balances.b. Using agriculture to achieve food security, create jobs and save foreign exchange for food imports.c. Ensuring energy sufficiency (power and petroleum products) by delivering at least 10 GW of operational capacity by 2020 and to improve the energy mix through greater use of renewable energy.d. Improving Nigeria’s inadequate transportation infrastructure to support the economy and reduce the major cost and constraint for businesses.e. Driving industrialization focusing on Small and Medium Scale Enterprises.

Since the launch, the Nigerian government has been vigorously implementing the ERGP according to its capacities. The efforts had yielded significant results. Real GDP growth stood at 1.81 per cent in the third quarter of 2018 compared to 1.17 per cent in the third quarter of 2017. 

The economy advanced 2.28 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019 compared to an upwardly revised 2.12 per cent rise in the previous period. It was the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2018, as oil output grew the most in over three years, according to report from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics. 

The oil sector expanded 6.49 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2019, after an upwardly revised 7.13 per cent growth in the previous period. The country produced 2.04 million barrels of crude oil per day, its highest since the first quarter of 2016, above 1.94 mbpd in the same period a year earlier. As a result, the oil sector accounted for 9.77 per cent of the GDP compared to 9.38 per cent a year ago.The non-oil sector rose 1.85 per cent, quickening from an upwardly revised 1.65 per cent advance in the previous period.

Though the economy has been witnessing steady growth, the rate falls short of the ERGP projected strong GDP growth rate of 4.5% in 2019.

Unless the economy picks up significantly in the next three quarters, the ERGP projection is well off its mark. The African Development Bank thinks so as well as it predicts Nigeria’s economy will grow by only 2.3% this year, and the International Monetary Fund projects growth will be 2 per cent. If the estimates prove right, 2019 will be the third straight year in which economic growth falls short of the ERGP’s projection. 

The ERGP’s bold forecasts are not limited to economic growth as it had also projected Nigeria’s unemployment rate will drop to 12.9% this year. But as of the third quarter of 2018, the unemployment rate was nearly double of that figure. And there’s little chance of a downward slide as the unemployment rate has climbed for 13 consecutive quarters.

Nigeria’s economy is heavily reliant on crude, with the fuel accounting for 85 per cent of foreign-currency earnings and two-thirds of government income. Without reforms to reduce its oil addiction, Nigeria risks “a lost decade” of flat economic growth, according to a January report by the Brookings Institution.

Nigeria is projected to be the world’s third-most-populous country by 2050. The International Monitory Fund (IMF) said it needs “faster growth to improve per-capita incomes and significantly reduce high unemployment and poverty.”

The Nigerian government is not oblivious to this claim, but with the ERGP projected to cover four years until 2020, Nigeria’s economy is running out of time to regain steam.

Hope is, however, not lost. The government is facing unrelentingly the task of diversifying its economy from over-reliance on oil by investing heavily on domestic agriculture, easing stubbornly high inflation and improving the living conditions of a rapidly growing, young population struggling to find jobs.

The president in August urged the Central Bank of Nigeria to stop providing foreign exchange for the importing of food into the country in a bid to catalyze agricultural production and enhance Nigeria’s food security.

In August, the government shut the country’s land border in a bid to stem the inflow of smuggled goods of which the country wants to internally increase production, such as rice. Nigerian custom authorities said all imports should now come through the country's ports where they can be monitored more easily and generate much-needed revenue.

The decision to partially close the land border is already yielding fruits in rice value chain with hundreds of rice mills springing up, while those that were moribund now being activated in many rice-producing states of the federation. Though this is now creating jobs with more people are now returning to rice production, the current productivity level is still far below the country’s demand to feed its booming population of some 200 million. Low mechanization rate, limited access to affordable financing, the lack of technical skills, among other factors, have been identified as impediments.

Greater trade engagement, not aid

The less-impactful trillion-dollar aid to Africa shows that the continent's growth does not primarily depend on what it deserves but what it negotiates. This underscores the need for deeper commercial engagements with the outside world.

For example, Nigeria's efforts to boosts domestic agriculture and achieve food sufficiency in rice production calls for greater cooperation with its partners especially China whose agriculture mechanization rate stands at 8 hp/ha, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).

China had been actively involved in agricultural development programmes across Africa. Between 1960 and 2018, China had completed hundreds of agricultural aid projects, including capacity building, in Africa.

This, in addition to supports from other partners, has yielded fruitful results, with Africa's agricultural output witnessing steady growth in the past two decades.
To address the challenges in the rice value chain and other agricultural sub-sectors, Nigeria should leverage its strategic cooperation with China to develop the agricultural sector and shift from manual to large-scale, mechanized system.

The country is endowed with young, vibrant, youthful population, many of whom find agriculture unappealing due to the physical strain inherent therein. These young people could easily be attracted to agriculture if the sector is fully mechanized.

The government agricultural plan also opens doors of opportunities to Chinese firms to invest in the rice value chain in Nigeria. It is among the areas of investment that guarantee maximum returns. Rice is a staple in Nigeria, and the country consumes almost 7 million tonnes of it a year. 

There is an outcry in Nigeria that infrastructure to support the economy is inadequate. The critical infrastructure gap cuts across all segments of the economy, the most pronounced including transport and power.

Chinese loans have financed large scale infrastructural projects, ranging from airports, hydro-power to highways and railways. Nigeria’s partnership with China, through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, had resulted in the execution of vital infrastructure projects worth over $5billion across the country between 2016 and 2018.

Investing in key infrastructure, especially in power, roads, rail, ports and broadband networks, is a vital component of Nigeria’s economic development plan. The plan notes that bridging the infrastructural gap requires cooperation with development partners.

Giving the specificity of Nigeria’s infrastructural challenges, no cooperation mechanism is better positioned to address them than China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Its emphasis on infrastructure construction means the initiative offers numerous openings for Nigeria to address its infrastructure financing shortfalls, which is estimated to reach three trillion USD by 2044 or about 100 billion USD annually, according to African Development Bank’s projection. Nigeria needs to proactively engage China through the initiative.

One of the key execution priorities of Nigeria’s economic development plan is ensuring energy sufficiency by delivering at least 10 GW of operational capacity by 2020 and to improve the energy mix through greater use of renewable energy.

Nigeria is looking toward China’s support to achieve this target. During the Coordinators’ Meeting on the Implementation of the Follow-up Actions of the 2018 summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in June 2019, Nigeria appealed for China's support for the immediate take-off of the $5.8 billion Mambilla hydropower project in Nigerian northeastern state of Taraba.

The 3,050 megawatt (MW) hydroelectric plant has been planned for over three decades. In September 2017, the federal government approved the construction of the project to a Chinese state firm. The execution of the project offers social and economic benefits to Nigerians. 

China owes much of its progress to reform and opening-up policy launched in 1978, and its meteoric rise from a poverty-stricken nation to an industrial powerhouse stunned the world. Chinese technologies, once discarded as substandard, are now competing favourably with those of the developed economies.

What Nigeria hopes to get from China is not limited to infrastructure financing alone, it also wants the Asian giant to transfer its technologies to its technical personnel.

Nigerian Ambassador to China, Baba Ahmad Jidda, during the June FOCAC meeting in Beijing, stressed the importance of technology to Africa's industrialization and appealed to the Chinese government to structure future cooperation frameworks in such a manner that would effectively encourage the transfer of technology to African technical personnel.

The envoy said the transfer of advanced technical knowledge had become imperative because the acquisition of technology and its diffusion to local experts were essential in fostering development, productivity and sustained growth.

While ERGP’s 2020 deadline draws nearer, Nigeria looks up to China to, in the spirit of win-win cooperation and shared benefit, share its experience and technical knowledge to develop the capacity of its human capital and bring about technological growth, one of the key objectives of the economic development plan.

⬆Nigerian agro technicians are trained by Chinese agro experts（photo by Zhang Baiping of Xinhua News Agency）