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全球多数时代
● 新时代 /  [塞尔维亚]日瓦丁·约万诺维奇(Zivadin Jovanovic)
● 和平仍然是可能的 / [ 瑞典] 扬·奥伯格(Jan Oberg)

文|[塞尔维亚]日瓦丁·约万诺维奇(Zivadin Jovanovic)  贝尔格莱德世界平等论坛、丝绸之路互联互通研究中心主席        翻译|胡昊

导读

“这是一个前所未有变化生发的时代,有些是全球格局性变化,有些是具有全球影响的区域性变化,有些是国家层面的变化——所有变化都是相互关联的。‘金砖+’与中国和俄罗斯独当一面的角色,已成为新的多极世界秩序的发动机。”

积极的路径

全球多数时代

三位一体的统治

核铁幕

谁主沉浮?

欧盟更多资金用于军备和阻止移民,更少用于清洁技术

2024年是选举年

 


这是一个前所未有变化生发的时代,有些是全球格局性变化,有些是具有全球影响的区域性变化,有些是国家层面的变化——所有变化都是相互关联的。“金砖+”与中国和俄罗斯独当一面的角色,已成为新的多极世界秩序的发动机。联合国大会也反映了朝着公正、和平与团结方向深刻变革的新趋势。科学、技术和通信的巨大进步扩大了相互理解、和平与人类繁荣的潜力。然而,过去的某些分裂性政治模式依然存在,同时也出现了一些新的、对抗性的政治模式。某些权力中心把制造混乱、恐惧和不确定性作为维持其统治和扩张的工具。北约在乌克兰针对俄罗斯的代理战争仍在继续,但已略显疲态,而以色列针对加沙地带巴勒斯坦人民的战争则变成了对平民和儿童的滥杀。制裁、供应链中断、能源和粮食危机导致全球贸易和经济放缓,许多国家出现衰退,包括一些最发达的国家。通货膨胀、生活水平下降和社会经济差距扩大引发了不满情绪、政治光谱出现变化,包括极端意识形态的兴起。

 

积极的路径

全球南方国家和一体化机制,如 “金砖+”、上合组织、欧亚经济联盟、“一带一路”倡议、二十国集团及其成员国,继续对地区和全球社会经济发展、现代化和战略性基础设施建设、加强人与人之间的互联互通、消除人员、货物和资本自由流动的一切人为障碍等问题采取积极和建设性的态度;着手解决危机和共同挑战;鼓励开放、团结、相互尊重和合作共赢;帮助缓解贫困、社会经济差距、能源和粮食危机;在平等、共存和互不干涉的基础上,加强包容性全球经济、政治和安全治理。习近平主席提出的 “全球发展倡议”、“全球安全倡议”和“全球文明倡议”就是这种开放、积极和前瞻性做法的例证。

人类在物质和文化领域都取得了无与伦比的成就,这让我们有理由相信,人类将在和平与安全中实现全面繁荣。从科学、人工智能、5G技术到第四次工业革命、包容性经济和金融治理、诸如“一带一路 ”倡议之类的全球性一体化,人类发展的各个领域都发生了格局性的全球变化,这些变化是无法阻挡或逆转的。基于特定历史、传统和文化,选择社会经济制度和发展道路的自由不能被剥夺。只有在平等、相互尊重和团结的原则指导下,国家和文明才能繁荣昌盛。

全人类的繁荣和福祉应成为全球的核心指导原则,是对一切不公正、狭隘思想和非人道作法的回应。全世界人民已经意识到,新殖民主义比殖民主义对人类繁荣的危害更大。新殖民主义的结构和方法使不平等和剥削永久化,在新的民主世界秩序中没有立足之地。以平等、相互尊重和团结为基础的、以人为本的世界新秩序是各国人民的奋斗目标。

2023年8月22~24日在南非共和国约翰内斯堡召开的金砖国家峰会对于加强发展中国家在塑造公正、包容的世界新秩序中的作用具有特别重要的意义。自2024年1月1日起,阿根廷、埃及、埃塞俄比亚、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国将成为新成员,金砖国家的成员总数增加了一倍多(从5个增至11个)。这不仅是数量上的扩大,更重要的是质量上的转变。金砖国家由亚洲、非洲和南美洲的主要国家组成,同时也是各大洲、区域和次区域一体化(东盟、上合组织、非盟、阿拉伯联盟、伊斯兰会议组织、欧佩克+等)中具有影响力的成员,已成为全球经济格局加速变化的核心参与者。

目前,“金砖+”国家的经济总量占全球经济总量的30%以上,目标是到2050年达到50%,人口占全球总人口的40%以上,并拥有无与伦比的能源和战略矿产资源。约翰内斯堡“金砖五国”峰会通过决定,减少对美元的依赖,加强全球商业中的去美元化进程;加快伙伴关系,支持非洲的可持续发展;努力实现有效的代表性和包容性多边主义,包括改革联合国系统和安理会结构,以加强发展中国家的代表性。这清楚地表明,“金砖+”将不仅仅是“豁免国”议程的旁观者、追随者或投票者,而且是在平等地约束国际社会所有成员的普遍国际法规则基础上,建立包容和完全民主的世界新秩序的积极推动者。

2023年10月17~18日,第三届 “一带一路 ”国际合作高峰论坛(BEF)在北京举行。此次峰会由中国国家主席习近平主持,来自140个国家和30个国际组织的元首、政府首脑和其他高级代表出席了会议,标志着 “一带一路 ”倡议的第一个十年取得了令人瞩目的成就,并通过了未来十年“一带一路”活动和重大项目的愿景和指导方针。习近平主席在峰会主旨演讲中指出“它(一带一路倡议)超越了文明、文化、社会制度和发展阶段的差异”——从而使现在和未来有别于过去的做法。 (详见《中国投资》,2023年12月号)。

习近平主席于2023年3月斡旋沙特阿拉伯与伊朗正式实现关系正常化,很难找到哪一个外交或政治举措能如此令人信服地说明世界格局发生的全球性变化的性质、范围和深度。这被认为是加强地区团结的重要一步。事实上,这不仅改变了海湾和沙特阿拉伯半岛的地缘政治格局,其真正的重要性还在于对阿拉伯和伊斯兰世界的政治和发展、全球能源市场、贸易、供应链和全球互联互通的影响。考虑到该地区巨大的经济、人力和资本资源,伊朗沙特阿拉伯关系正常化将在许多方面带来益处,包括鼓励和平、公正地解决地区冲突和社会经济发展,以及全球经济和金融治理。这是重新分配地区外传统参与者的影响力和权重、实现包容和合作共赢的重要一步。这无疑是中国外交,尤其是习近平主席外交的历史性成功。这是对其世界公信力的认可,也是积极行动带来成功的证明。

 

全球多数时代

始于2023年10月的加沙战争,在不到三个月的时间里,已夺走了20000多名巴勒斯坦人的生命,其中包括8000名儿童。加沙地带幅员狭小,仅有365平方公里,总人口约200万,其中大部分是流离失所者和难民。然而,那些自诩为民主和人权先知,但实际上却总是将其地缘政治利益放在首位的人,似乎在妨碍国际社会制止滥杀无辜的可耻行径。

尽管联合国安理会至今仍未采取有意义的措施来制止这场人类悲剧,但联合国大会却表现出了真正的正义感、责任感和人道主义精神。2023年12月12日,联合国大会通过决议,要求“立即实现人道主义停火,立即无条件释放所有人质,并确保人道主义援助准入”。该决议被许多可靠的分析人士认为是历史性的文件,以153票赞成、23票弃权、仅10票反对的表决结果获得通过。除了具有重要的道德价值外,这份文件和投票结果也是全球变化的一个非常有价值的证明,它有利于公正、真理和人道主义,反对操纵、双重标准或胁迫。它还表明,美国自称是民主和人权的领导者,却在联合国大会这个全球论坛上遭到孤立,不仅被全球南方国家孤立,甚至被加拿大、法国、澳大利亚和日本等最亲密的盟国孤立。孤立的原因不仅仅是加沙问题,更主要的是公正、真理和道德的普遍原则。华盛顿是否能得到正确的信息,只有未来才能说清楚。

因此,全球多数人行动的新时代在最具代表性的联合国机构得到了加强。那些长期被傲慢的“排外主义者”说教民主和人权的人们,这一次有了自己的发言权,并发出了将在未来产生共鸣的信息。这是呼吁加倍努力,在联合国安理会决议所设想的两个平等的主权国家共存的基础上,持久地脱离敌对行动,撤出被占领土,并为和平、公正和持久地解决中东危机展开对话。

在过去的一年里,在所有国家、民族和人类平等的原则基础上建立世界新秩序获得了新的力量。与那些口头上接受多极化和民主,但在实践中却继续谋求特权、实行双重标准、装腔作势教训他人的人相比,承认和尊重多极化的实践已成为那些真正信奉普遍国际法原则、真正民主和多样性团结的价值观并为之奋斗的人的参照点和区别点。通信、物质、社会经济和人与人之间联系的进步和全球化,使所有狭隘的保护主义做法不仅是多余的,而且是过时的和适得其反的。在新的全球现实中,任何一个国家,无论是高度发达国家还是欠发达国家,其繁荣都取决于所有国家的繁荣,这已成为显而易见的真理。多极化为全球关系民主化、唤醒各国人民和各种文明的创造力以及公平合作开辟了新的道路。

 

三位一体的统治    

几个世纪以来,西方主要国家一直将地缘经济和地缘政治扩张作为其社会经济进步和精英致富的重要手段。这不仅是漫长的殖民主义时期的现实,而且在整个新殖民主义时期一直延续至今。以美国为首的北约成为新自由主义、跨国公司和新殖民主义体系的内在发动机。

1989年柏林墙倒塌后,美国/北约加强了扩张战略。在欧洲,北约一直在向东扩张,最近又向俄罗斯边境推1340公里;在印度洋-太平洋地区,北约加强了与澳大利亚、新西兰、日本和韩国的联盟与合作;在全球范围内,北约奉行被称为“360 度介入”的战略。北约毫不掩饰其为了“十亿人黄金国”的利益而管理(控制)地球的野心,即使这会损害全球“其余”七十亿人口的利益和安全。他们认为,他们的“基于规则的世界秩序”授权其在世界上任何时候、任何地方进行干预,只要他们宣称这符合其“国家利益”。事实上,这种行为违反了《联合国宪章》、联合国安理会的授权和国际法的普遍原则——这与他们无关。北约拒绝接受人人平等安全的原则。在为其成员国提供安全的幌子下,美国/北约将军事干涉主义全球化,公然违反了《联合国宪章》的基本原则、许多国家的主权和领土完整,并破坏了其他国家的安全。

新自由主义的跨国公司体系、北约和“以规则为基础”的单极世界秩序——三位一体,称霸全球。这就是为什么为全球关系民主化、为基于《联合国宪章》的国际法规则以及为建立新的多极世界秩序而进行的斗争必须以全人类的需要和利益为中心,而不是以人类任何一部分的利益为中心。

美国/北约在乌克兰针对俄罗斯的代理战争已接近两年。尽管西方伙伴似乎已经厌倦了向基辅提供武器装备和数十亿美元的帮助,甚至受到反俄制裁的反噬,但冲突暂时还看不到结束的迹象。北约的“门户开放政策”(接收新成员)和对俄罗斯合理安全关切的漠视很可能会持续到2024年11月下届美国总统大选之后。中国(“全球安全倡议”)、土耳其、巴西、非洲和其他国家所做的重要和平努力和倡议遭到了美国、英国和其他一些西方国家鹰派圈子的破坏,而这些鹰派圈子是为军事工业/金融复合体及其政治精英的利益服务的。

 

核铁幕    

尽管北约东扩是乌克兰危机的根源,但北约的扩张仍有增无减,完全无视所有人享有平等安全权利的原则。芬兰和瑞典一直是中立、宽容和缓和的象征,但它们都接受了邀请,成为北约第30个和第31个成员国。芬兰于2023年4月被批准加入,从而使北约与俄罗斯的边界延长1340公里。瑞典正等待美国成功消除土耳其和匈牙利的反对意见。此外,丹麦、挪威、瑞典和芬兰这四个斯堪的纳维亚国家与美国签署了长期协议,允许美军和军事装备在其境内永久驻扎。德国也与立陶宛签订了类似的协议,允许在立陶宛驻扎约5000名士兵。  

从北约扩张的最新进展中可以得出的公式似乎包括几个步骤: 首先,美国进行战争宣传,在欧洲盟国中散布所谓俄罗斯即将发动进攻的恐惧;其次,向盟国提供军事保护,以换取更高的军事预算和美国军工企业的新订单;第三,建立美国军事基地,包括“前沿部署核武器”;第四,美国对欧洲大陆从北冰洋到东地中海和近东实施全面军事控制;第五,包围俄罗斯,通过新的核武器铁幕切断欧洲与俄罗斯的联系。

美国/北约在俄罗斯边境集结军队和军事武库(不包括核武器)的计划是什么?他们的撤出战略是什么?他们指望俄罗斯坐以待毙吗?“乌克兰战争只是西方文明最严重危机的一个表露”——美国大学校长爱德华·洛赞斯基(Edward Lozanski)这样进行了分析(见《美洲大陆》,2023年12月6日)。

 

谁主沉浮?    

西方,主要是美国现任领导层,似乎准备制造并维持恐惧、不确定性和全球分裂,很可能是希望这有利于约束盟友、保持对抗、主导地位并为自己的军工企业和整个经济创造商机。中国、俄罗斯以及所谓的极权主义意识形态和政权的所谓弊端也被利用来恐吓国内公众,破坏美国的民主、发展和安全。显然,他们干涉美国内政和选举进程,监视和腐蚀政治家和公民,窃取技术创新成果等等。美国政治领域的许多观察家声称,人人自危的“新麦卡锡主义 ”时代正在到来。

在过去的一年里,发生了许多重要事件。对其议程和最终文件的简单回顾表明,所谓集体西方的各种论坛,如北约、欧盟、七国集团、EPC(欧洲政治共同体)、DA(民主联盟)峰会,主要致力于谴责和制裁俄罗斯“入侵乌克兰”,动员对乌克兰的军事、后勤、政治和财政支持,散布所谓俄罗斯攻击其他国家的恐惧;俄罗斯和中国滥用经济合作促进地缘政治的“恶性影响”,仅凭猜测制定遏制和限制措施;自愿限制世界市场上天然气和石油的价格;对某些国家的进出口实施限制;退出具有约束力的协议;威胁任何不同意其政策或单边措施的人等等。限制性的、保护主义的地缘政治竞争的做法一直占据主导地位。

 

欧盟更多资金用于军备和阻止移民,更少用于清洁技术    

乌克兰冲突后,德国总理奥拉夫·舒尔茨宣布,德国已为军方额外拨款1000亿欧元,其中包括用于F16双战机的资金。德国国防部长鲍里斯·皮斯托里斯认为,欧洲有五到八年的时间在国防和军事工业方面迎头赶上,以做好抵御俄罗斯假想攻击的准备。为此,他建议与其他一些不一定认同“我们的价值观 ”的国家合作,并补充说“如果我们不合作,中国和俄罗斯就会合作”。他的论点是,俄罗斯不会在乌克兰问题后停手,美军预计在未来十年将把重点放在太平洋地区,并将“希望适度”减少在欧洲的投入。我们姑且不去探究德国部长论点的逻辑和漏洞,只需假定他的立场肯定会对“低级”欧洲伙伴产生影响,并在包括军工部门在内的许多方面引起注意。

四年前,时任欧盟委员会新当选主席的冯德莱恩宣布了“绿色新政”,作为欧盟的综合发展计划,在10年内投资1万亿欧元。2023年12月,欧洲理事会峰会未能批准早些时候指定用于资助清洁技术产业、可再生能源和研究的100亿欧元。原因是需要优先考虑为国防和遏制大规模非法移民提供资金!随后的评估指出,欧盟主要气候相关项目的资金正在减少,2024年的项目专项资金低于2022年,因此,欧盟无法在2050年之前实现温室气体净零排放。

在大西洋的另一边,美国国会没有批准向乌克兰提供500亿美元的新援助。共和党议员反对该法案,首先要求采取额外措施保护南部边境,防止非法移民。有影响力的美国大众媒体对援助法案可能很快再次被搁置表示怀疑,其他媒体则建议应由欧盟而非美国来援助基辅。到目前为止,还没有人回答这样一个问题——如果欧盟不能代替美国采取行动怎么办?无论如何,欧盟和美国都面临着两个挑战:来自贫穷和不稳定国家的大量移民增加,以及资助基辅打败俄罗斯的难题。现在是反思的时候了。

 

2024年是选举年    

2024年是选举年。在拥有42亿人口、占全球人口一半以上的国家,将举行70多场议会和总统选举。欧盟27个成员国将于2024年6月举行选举,选出705名欧洲议会议员、欧盟委员会(执行部门)主席和成员。据门户网站“Politico”(2023年12月11日)报道,最近益普索(Ipsos)在包括美国、法国和英国在内的七个西方国家进行的调查显示,公民认为本国现在的民主状况比五年前更糟。在欧盟和国家层面,公众对民主的运作方式日益不满。

在许多观察家看来,欧盟公民的不满情绪正在上升,原因是多方面的。这里只谈三个原因。首先,人们普遍认为执政的政治精英不受民主控制,特别是欧盟行政部门,它不是通过选举产生的,却拥有巨大的权力和资金。越来越多的重要决策是由幕后的非正式权力集团做出的,而民主机构,如议会,则被搁置一旁,或仅被用作橡皮图章。其次是通货膨胀和人民生活水平的急剧下降,与此同时,富有的精英阶层却变得更加富有,从而加剧了社会经济差距。尽管有大量相反的宣传,但越来越多的人认为,导致生活水平逆转的原因是援助乌克兰的军费开支迅速增加,以及对俄罗斯制裁的反作用。随着时间的推移,切断与俄罗斯的关系有悖于欧洲利益的事实正变得越来越明显。第三,大量移民,尤其是来自非洲和中东的移民,引发了越来越多的社会问题,并在国内政治斗争中被利用。仇外心理,特别是反穆斯林意识形态的抬头显而易见。

所有上述情况都可能在很大程度上影响2024年6月欧盟选举的结果,以及欧洲一些国家的选举。反穆斯林的威尔德斯的自由党在荷兰上台,马克龙的复兴党在法国被削弱,玛丽娜·勒庞的国民阵线得到加强,德国的政治格局发生了深刻变化,极右翼的德国选择党得到支持,这些都表明了欧洲政治力量相关性的变化趋势。右翼、民族主义、民粹主义和主权导向政党的加强,很可能会成为欧盟和欧洲一些国家选举的结果。这将在多大程度上影响欧盟与乌克兰、俄罗斯和中国的关系,除其他因素外,还将取决于2024年11月美国总统大选的结果。迄今为止,大多数欧洲国家和欧盟的这一代政治领导人显然都不会为自己对欧洲的自主性和特性所做的贡献感到自豪。即将举行的选举可能会带来一些新的人物和态度。

让我们希望并努力使2024年为智慧、理解和创造力拓展空间和机会,以和平的方式结束冲突,以开放的态度迎接新的挑战,并为所有人实现正义、团结和繁荣的愿景。

 


By [Serbia] Zivadin Jovanovic,

President  of the Belgrade Forum for a World of Equals and Silk Road Connectivity  Research Center


It is time of unprecedented changes, some are tectonic global, some regional with the global implications, some national – all interconnected. BRICS+ with liding roles of China and Russia, has become the motor of the new multi-polar world order. UN General Assembly also mirrors new trends of profound changes toward justice, peace and solidarity. Enormous advancement in science, technology and communications has expanded potential for mutual understanding, peace and human prosperity. Yet, certain divisive political patterns of the past persist, while some new, confrontational, are appearing. Certain power centers adopted method of sawing confusion, fear and uncertainty as a tool of their domination and expansion. NATO proxy war in Ukraine against Russia continues, though, with some fatigue, while Israeli war against Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip turns into indiscriminate killings of civilians and children. Sanctions, disruption of supply chains, energy and food crisis, have resulted in slow-down of the global trade and economy, recession in many countries, including some of the most developed. Inflation, drop of living standard and rising socio-economic gaps provoke dissatisfaction, changes in political spectrum, including rise of extreme ideologies.

 

 
⬆  On the evening of November 21, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping attends in Beijing via video the Extraordinary Joint Meeting of BRICS Leaders and Leaders of Invited BRICS Members on the Situation in the Middle East with Particular Reference to Gaza (Photo by Sheng Jiapeng/China News Service)


Positive approach

Countries and integrations of the Global South, such as BRIKS+, SCO, EAEU, BRI, G-20 and their member-countries individually, have continued to maintain positive, constructive approach to regional and global socio-economic development; to modernization and building strategic infrastructure; to intensification of the people to people connectivity; to removing all artificial obstacles for free flow of people, goods and capital; to initiating solutions for crises and common challenges; to encouraging openness, solidarity, mutual respect and win win cooperation; to helping alleviation of poverty, socio-economic gaps, energy and food crises; to intensifying building inclusive global economic, political and security governance based on equality, coexistence and noninterference. Illustrative of such an open, positive and forward-looking approach are the Global Initiatives of the President Xi Jinping on Development (GDI), Security (GSI) and Civilization (GCI).

Unparalleled achievements in both, material and cultural spheres, give reasons to believe in overall prosperity of mankind in peace and security. Tectonic global changes in all fields of human development from science, AI, and 5G technologies to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, inclusive economic and financial governance, global integrations such as Belt and Road Initiative cannot be stopped or reversed. Freedom of choice of socio-economic system and path of development based on specific history, tradition and culture, cannot be denied. Nations and civilizations will prosper, only when guided by principles of equality, mutual respect and solidarity.

Prosperity and wellbeing for humanity as whole should be core globally guiding principle, response to all injustices, narrow mind-nesses and inhuman approaches. Peoples throughout the world have become conscious that neocolonialism is even greater danger for human prosperity than colonialism. Neocolonial structures and methods perpetuating inequality and exploitation have no place in the new democratic world order. Humanity centered New World Order based on equality, mutual respect and solidarity is what all peoples strive to.

BRICS Summit in Johannesburg, South African Republic (August 22-24, 2023) was the event of particular importance for strengthening the role of developing countries in shaping new, just, inclusive World Order. Receiving Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates as the new members from January 1st, 2024, BRICS has more than doubled the total membership (from 5 to 11). This is not only quantitative enlargement but, above all, qualitative transformation of  BRICS comprising leading countries of Asia, Africa and South America which, at the same time, are influential members of various continental, regional and sub regional integrations (EAEU, SCO, AU, AL, OIC, OPEC+ and others), has become core player in accelerating changes of the global economic landscape.

For the time being BRICS+ accounts for over 30 percent of the global economy aiming to rich 50 percent by 2050, for more than 40 percent of the total population, as well as for unparalleled energy and strategic minerals resources. The Johannesburg BRICS summit adopted decisions to reduce dependence on the US dollar and intensify the process of de-dollarization in global commerce, to accelerate partnership and support to sustainable development of Africa and to work for efficient representation, inclusive multilateralism, including reforms of the UN system, structure of Security Council, with the aim to strengthen representation of developing countries. This is clear message that BRICS+ will not be just observer, follower or voter about agendas introduced by “exempted” ones, but active promoter in building new, inclusive and fully democratic world order based on the rule of universal international law binding equally all members of the world community.

Positive global approach to the shared future of humanity dominated at the Third Belt and Road Economic Forum (BEF) held in Beijing October 17-18, 2023. The Summit meeting presided by the President of PR of China Xi Jinping, attended by heads of states governments and other high representatives of 140 countries and 30 international organizations, marked the first decade of the impressive implementation of the Initiative and adopted the vision and guidelines for the activities and major projects to be implemented over the next decade. In his keynote speech at the Summit the President Xi Jinping noted: “It (BRI) transcends differences between civilizations, cultures, social systems and stages of development” – thus differing the present and the future from the past practices.  (more, see China Investment, December, 2023).  

It is hard to find single diplomatic or political move so convincingly illustrating the nature, scope and depth of the global changes in the world landscape as is the President Xi Jinping’s mediation in normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran which was formalized in March 2023. It was considered to be important step towards strengthening regional solidarity. In fact it has changed geopolitical landscape not only in the Gulf and Saudi Arab Peninsula but its real importance is much more relevant affecting the politics and developments in Arab and Islamic World, global energy market, trade, supply chains, global connectivity.

Having regard region’s great economic, human and capital resources, normalization of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations will beneficial in many directions from encouraging peaceful and just solutions of regional conflicts and socio-economic development, to the global economic and financial governance. It is important step toward redistribution of the influence and weight of traditional out-of-region players, in favor of inclusiveness and win win cooperation. It is certainly historic success of China’s diplomacy and of the President Xi Jinping, particularly. It is recognition of their world-wide credibility and proof that doing positive brings success.

 

Era of Global Majority

The war in Gaza started last October and in less than three months has taken more than 20.000 lives of Palestinian people, including 8.000 thousands of children. Having regard small territory of only 365 square kilometers and total population of Gaza Strip of about 2 millions, the most of whom are displaced and refugees, this is unique humanitarian catastrophe in the newer history. Yet, the world community seems to be prevented from stopping shameful indiscriminate killing of innocent people, by those who pretend to be prophet(s) of democracy and human rights but, in reality, always prioritize their geopolitical interests.

While the UN Security Council remained, so far, blocked to take meaningful steps to stop this human tragedy, real sense of justice, responsibility and humanism came from the UN General Assembly. On December 12th, UN GA adopted resolution demanding “an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, immediate and unconditional release of all hostages as well as ensuring humanitarian access”. The resolution considered by many credible analysts to be historic document, was voted out by 153 in favor, 23 abstained and only 10 against. Apart from being bearing great moral value, this document and voting results represent exceptionally valuable proof of global change in favor of justice, truth and humanism, against manipulation, double-standard or coercion. It shows also that USA, claiming to be the leader of democracy and human rights, was isolated in the UN GA, the global forum, not only from countries of the Global South, but even from the closest allies, such as Canada, France, Australia and Japan. Isolation was not over Gaza only, but primarily, over universal principles of justice, truth and morality. Will Washington get the right message, or not only the future will say.

Thus, the new era of global majority in action has been reinforced right from the most representative UN body. Those who, have permanently, been lectured about democracy and human rights by arrogant “exclusivists”, this time had their own say and message which will resonate in the future. This is a call to redoubling the efforts for lasting secession of hostilities, withdrawal from occupied territories and for initiating dialogue for peaceful, just and lasting solution of the Near East crises, based on the co-existence of two equal sovereign states, as envisaged by UN SC resolutions.  

Building the New World Order based on the principles of equality of all states, nations and human beings, has gained new strength over the past year. Recognizing and respecting multi-polarity in practice has become point of reference and differentiation to those who really believe in and struggle for the values of universal international law principles, true democracy and solidarity in diversity, compared to those who verbally accept multi-polarity and democracy but, in practice, continue to seek privileges, apply double-standards, pretend to lecture others and so on. Advancement and globalization of communications, physical, socio-economic and people to people connectivity have made all narrow-minded, protectionist approaches not only redundant but outdated and counterproductive. In the new global reality the truth that prosperity of any individual country, be it highly developed or under developed, depends on the prosperity of all, has become obvious truth. Multi-polarity is opening new avenues for democratization of the global relations, for awakening of creative energy of peoples and civilizations, for equitable cooperation.

 

Trinity domination

Leading western countries have for centuries been practicing geo-economic and geo-political expansion as important method for their socio-economic advancement and enrichment of their elites. This was the reality over the long period of colonialism but also continued throughout the period of neocolonialism up to the present time. NATO headed by USA, became inboard motor of neoliberal, multinational, neo-colonial system.

USA/NATO has intensified its strategy of expansion after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. In Europe e NATO has been expanding toward the east recently accessing additional 1.340 km. of Russian boarders; in Indo-Pacific region – intensifying presence and fortifying alliance and cooperation with Australia, New Zeeland, Japan and South Korea; globally – pursuing the strategy  known as “360 degrees approach”. NATO does not hide ambition to police (control) the planet in the interest of the “golden billion” even if this undermines interests and security of the “remaining” seven billion of the global population. They take it that their “rule based world order” authorizes them to intervene any time, any place in the world which they alone proclaim to be of their “national interest”. The fact that such a behavior represents violation of the UN Charter, UN Security Council’s mandate, and universal principles of the International Law – is not their concern. NATO refuses accepting the principle of equal security for all. Under the guise of providing security of its members, USA/NATO has globalised military interventionism, bluntly violating the basic principles of UN Charter, sovereignty and territorial integrity of many countries and undermining security of others.

Neo-liberal multinational corporate system, NATO and “rule based” uni-polar world order – make trinity for global domination.  This is why, the struggle for democratization of the global relations, for the rule of International Law based on the UN Charter and building of the New Multi-polar World Order has to be centered on the needs and interests of the entire humanity, not on the interests of any part of it.

The USA/NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is approaching two years duration. Although the western partners seem to be getting tired of helping Kiev with armament and billions in cash, even more stricken by backfiring of anti-Russian sanctions, the end of the conflict is not in sight, for the time being. NATO’s “open door policy” (for receiving new members, aut.) and ignorance of the Russia’s legitimate security concerns will most likely stay in force until after the next US presidential elections in November 2024. Significant peace efforts and initiatives made by China (The Global Security Initiative), Turkey, Brazil, African and other countries, have been undermined by hawkish circles in USA, GB and some other countries of the west, serving the interests of the military industrial/financial complex and their political elites.

 

Nuclear iron curtain

Although, NATO expansion toward East is in the root of Ukraine crisis, expansion continued unabated, totally disregarding principle of equal right to security of all. Finland and Sweden, countries which have been symbols of neutrality, tolerance and detente, they both accepted invitations to become 30-eth and 31st members of NATO. Finland’s accession was ratified in April 2023, thus enabling extension of NATO bordering with Russia for additional 1.340 km. Sweden is waiting successful US brokerage for removal of Turkey’s and Hungary’s objections. In addition, four Scandinavian countries – Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland have signed long term agreements with USA permitting permanent stationing of US forces and military equipment in their territories. Germany made similar agreement with Lithuania to station there about 5.000 soldiers.

The formula that could be drown from the newest development of NATO expansion seems to comprise several steps: first, USA war propaganda spreading fear among European allies of Russia’s alleged imminent attack; second, offering them military protection in exchange for much higher military budgets covering new orders from the US military industry; third, establishing US military bases, including “forward deployed nuclear weapons”; forth, imposing full USA military control of European continent from the North Ice Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean and Near East; and, fifth, encircling Russia, cutting off Europe from Russia, this time, by new nuclear weapons iron curtain.

What are USA/NATO plans behind amassing troops and military arsenal, not excluding nuclear weapons, at Russian boarders? What is their exit strategy? Do they expect Russia sitting idle? “The war in Ukraine is just an indicator of the gravest crisis of the Western Civilization” – considers Edward Lozanski, President of American University (“Continent USA”, December 6th, 2023).

 

Who is who?

The West, primarily the present leadership of USA, seems to be poised to saw and maintain  fear, uncertainties and global divisions, probably, hoping that this is conducive to discipline allies, keep confrontation, dominate and make business for own military industrial complex and the whole economy. Similar tactics are exploited internally frightening domestic public by alleged malpractices of China, Russia and so called totalitarian ideologies and regimes which undermine American democracy, development and security. Apparently, they interfere in the USA internal affairs, in electoral processes, spy and corrupt politicians and citizens; steal technological innovations and so on. Many observers of the USA political spectrum claim that the era of the “new Macartism”, when everybody is suspecting everybody, is well under way.  

Over the past year many important events have occurred. Simple review of their agendas and final documents show that various forums of the so called collective West, like summits of NATO, EU , G-7, EPC (European Political Community), DA (Democracy Alliance) have been devoted mainly to condemnation and sanctioning of Russia for “invading Ukraine”, mobilizing  military,  logistic, political and financial support to Ukraine, spreading fear about alleged Russia’s attacks on other countries; about “malign influences” of Russia and China’s abuse of economic cooperation for promotion of geopolitics; formulating containment and restrictions based on mere speculations; voluntarily limiting prices of gas and oil on the world market; imposing restrictions on imports and exports from and to certain countries; getting out from binding agreements; threatening anybody who disagrees with their policies or unilateral measures, and so on. Restrictive, protectionist, geopolitical rivalry approaches have been dominant.

 

EU – more for armament and stopping migration less for clean-tech

After conflict in Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany has devised extra sum of 100 billion Euros for military, including for F16s dual service fighters. His defense minister Boris Pistorius considers that Europe has five to eight years to catch up in defense and military industry in order to be ready to defend from the Russian presumed attack. To facilitate this he suggested cooperation with some other countries which may not necessarily share “our values” adding that “if we don’t, China and Russia will”. His arguments were that Russia will not stop after Ukraine, that USA military is expected to focus next decade to the Pacific and will, “hopefully modestly”, reduce commitments in Europe. Without going into logic and loopholes of German Minister’s arguments, it is sufficient to presume that his position will certainly have impact on “junior” European partners and open ears in many directions, including military industrial sectors.

Four years ago Ursula Fon Der Layen, then newly elected President of EU Commission, announced the New Green Deal as comprehensive EU development plan, valued at one trillion Euros over period of 10 years. December 2023, European Council Summit could not agree to approve 10 billion Euros earmarked earlier for funding clean-tech industry, renewable energy and research.  The reason: the need to prioritize financing defense and curbing massive illegal migration! Ensuing assessments point out that funding of the key EU climate related projects is in regression, that the funds earmarked for projects in 2024, are lower than in 2022, and that, therefore, EU is failing meet net zero gas emission by 2050.

On the other side of Atlantic, USA Congress did not approve 50 billion $ new aid to Ukraine. Republican congressmen opposed the bill demanding additional measures for protecting southern boarders from illegal immigration, first. Influential US mass-media voiced doubts that aid bill may be tabled again soon, the others suggested that EU should be approached to aid Kiev, instead of USA. So far, there is no answer to the question – what about if EU is unable to act instead? In any case, both – EU and USA – are faced with both challenges: rising massive immigrations from pore, destabilized countries and financing Kiev problematic mission to defeat Russia. It is time for reflection.

 

2024 the year of elections

2024 will be the year of elections. More than 70 parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in countries populated by 4,2 billion people what makes more than half of the global population. Elections in 27 member countries of EU for 705 members of European Parliament, president and members of European Commission (executive branch) will be held in June, 2024. According to Portal “Politico” (December 11, 2023) recent IPSOS’ surway in seven western countries, including USA, France and Great Britain, has shown that citizens consider that democracy in their countries is worse now than 5 years ago. Growing dissatisfaction of the public with how democracy is working is noted in EU on both – Union and national levels.

For many observers, dissatisfaction among citizens in the EU is in the rise for a number of reasons. Let only three be noted here. First, is the general feeling that ruling political elites are not under democratic control, especially EU executive branch, which is not elected at the elections but disposes with great power and funds. More and more often, important decisions are being brought in informal power groups behind the scene, while democratic institutions, such as parliaments, are kept aside or used for rubber-stamping, only. Second is inflation and rapid drop in living standards of masses while, at the same time, rich elite is becoming even richer thus contributing to deepening socio-economic gaps. In spite of huge propaganda to the opposite, more and more people perceive that the cause of such reversal in their living standards is rapid rise of military spending going as assistance to Ukraine and backfiring of sanctions to Russia. As the time passes by, the truth that cutting relations with Russia is contrary to the interest of Europe, is becoming widely evident. And third, is massive immigration, especially from Africa and Middle East which is provoking more and more social problems and exploited in internal political struggle. Raise of xenophobia, particularly anti-Muslim ideologies is evident.

All aforesaid is may influence considerably the outcome of the June 2024 EU elections, as well as some national elections in Europe. Coming to power of anti-Muslim Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in Holland, weakening of Manueal Macron’s Renaissance party and strengthening Marin le Pen’s National Alliance, in France, profound change in the political landscape in Germany in favor of the extreme right-oriented AfD are indicative of the trends of change of correlation of political forces in Europe. Strengthening of the right-wing, nationalist, populist and sovereignty oriented parties may likely be the score of EU and some national elections in Europe. How much this will influence EU relationship to Ukraine, Russia and China will depend, among other factors, on the results of US presidential elections in November 2024. Up to now, it has been clear that the present generation of political leaders in majority of European countries, as well as on the level of EU, could not be much proud of their contribution to Europe’s autonomy and identity. Forthcoming elections may bring some new characters and attitudes this regard.

Let us hope and work that 2024 will expand the space and opportunities for wisdom, understanding and creativity toward peaceful ending conflicts, openness to meeting new challenges and vision for justice, solidarity and prosperity for all.