欧洲困境、成因及对中欧关系的影响

When mankind enters the 21st century, Europe ushered in a peak moment: the European Union continued to expand and grow, and the euro was successfully put into use. However, a quarter of a century later, Europe is in deep trouble and has become the biggest loser in the game of global powers.

Series of crises lead to European difficulties

The turning point in Europe’s development from rising to falling was the European sovereign debt crisis triggered by the US financial crisis in 2008.Then the Arab Spring happened in 2011. Europe, led by France, overthrew the Gaddafi government in Libya, resulting in the largest refugee flow since World War II and the spread of the Islamic State, which severely impacted security.In 2014, a political crisis occurred in Ukraine. The EU, Poland and Russia jointly mediated and witnessed that the pro-Russian democratically elected President Yanukovych signed an agreement with the opposition. Unexpectedly, the agreement was torn upextremely quickly.Yanukovych was overthrown the next day. The EU did not condemn or oppose this behavior, but supported it. Russia responded by supporting the autonomy of pro-Russian regions in eastern Ukraine and re-incorporating Crimea into its territory. Europe immediately imposed sanctions on Russia, starting the process of eventual confrontation between the two sides.

Under the impact of the economic crisis and the refugee crisis, the first European political crisis finally formed in 2016: Britain, the third largest economy in the EU, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and a nuclear power, successfully voted to leave the European Union, and the EU integration for the first time suffered a major setback.

In 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out. Europe wasted the extremely valuable buffer time and experience that China’s successful fight against the epidemic brought to the world, and became the hardest hit area, with its economy and lives severely damaged.

After the conflict between Europe and Russia in 2014, On the one hand, Europe continues to increase its dependence on Russian energy, and on the other hand, it continues to support NATO’s eastward expansion.

The seventh and eighth NATO eastward expansions were carried out in June 2017 and March 2020 respectively. After the Biden administration came to power in 2021, it publicly proposed supporting Ukraine’s membership of NATO. At this background, on February 20, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Europe has once again become the biggest loser in terms of interests: refugee and aid costs, the loss of cheap Russian energy leading to a decline in European economic competitiveness, difficulty in implementing reindustrialization, a substantial increase in dependence on the United States from security to energy, severe damage to strategic autonomy, and it’s strategic room for maneuver has been severely compressed.

Under such circumstances, the United States ignored Europe’s opposition and sold energy to Europe at a price four times that of its own market, and introduced The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 that severely affected Europe’s ability to reindustrialize.

These crises eventually escalated into political crises: in June 2022, far-right parties won in Italy, the EU’s third-largest economy. In November 2023, the far-right party won a big victory in the Netherlands, a traditional Western European democracy, becoming the largest party. The results of the European Parliament elections held in June 2024 show that, far-right parties are in the leading position or their influence has increased significantly in various European countries.Most importantly in France, the far-right National Rally is far ahead of the ruling Renaissance party by more than ten percentage points.

The rise of far-right nationalist forces that are anti-EU and xenophobic poses a serious threat to the survival of the EU.

Why Europe is in deep trouble

First of all, this is caused by the EU’s own structural problems.The EU is a political entity composed of sovereign states similar to a confederation. Although integration has been promoted, the degree of integration is far from being able to adapt to the international and internal environment of the 21st century.In addition to being unable to effectively deal with various frequent risks such as black swans and gray rhinos, it is also difficult to cope with the rise of emerging countries, the return of great power competition, fierce competition in globalization, and the increasing failure of the old order.

For example, the financial crisis broke out in the United States in 2008, but it resulted in a more serious sovereign debt crisis in Europe.The current EU only has a unified monetary policy, but it does not have many constraints on the fiscal policy with a strong sense of sovereignty. It is a decentralized fiscal policy independent of each country.This creates a situation of “same central bank, different finances” and “same euro, different national debt”.Although according to the Stability and Growth Pact adopted by the EU in 1997, each country’s public debt cannot exceed 60% of GDP, and the fiscal deficit of countries joining the euro must be less than 3% of GDP.But few countries are able to comply. Even core countries like France and Germany cannot do it.In 2023, the ratio of government debt to GDP in the six countries of Greece, Italy, Portugal, France, Spain, and Belgium will all be higher than 100%. In particular, the debt ratios of Greece and Italy are as high as 165.5% and 140.6%.Although Germany, the “locomotive” of the Eurozone, has a relatively low debt ratio of 65.9%, it also exceeds EU standards. According to Eurostat data in 2023, the average fiscal deficit in the Eurozone accounts for 3.6% of GDP, and the EU average is 3.3%, both exceed the upper limit stipulated in fiscal rules.According to economic data released by the European Commission, for the whole of 2023, about 12 EU countries’ deficit rates exceeded the prescribed 3%. France, an important country in the EU and Eurozone, has a fiscal deficit as high as 5.5% of GDP.

From an economic perspective, such a structure cannot withstand the impact of the US financial crisis, nor can it unite to face the fierce economic competition of globalization.

This structural problem in Europe was exposed again when faced with the COVID-19 epidemic in 2009. The EU has been slow to act and unable to coordinate coordinated actions among countries.The measures introduced by the EU to deal with the epidemic have not been adopted by member states, and each country is doing its own thing.They even broke the basic bottom line of civilization and diplomatic principles to compete for medical supplies: disinfectant water and other medical supplies imported from Switzerland were detained by Italy and Germany, France issued an administrative order to requisition masks, Germany issued an export ban on scarce epidemic prevention materials, and Italy also began to announce a ban on epidemic prevention Material export.Later, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic in their own countries, Some member states of the Schengen Agreement closed their borders in violation of regulations in order to protect themselves. In particular, Italy was the first country where the epidemic broke out, and no country responded to the EU’s request for help.

From an international political perspective, it is also difficult to resist the intervention of external forces.Hungary, a landlocked country in the EU, has always been highly dependent on Russian energy, so it has close relations with Russia. Even if there is a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it will stand by Russia.Hungary not only opposes the EU’s aid to Ukraine – it vetoed the EU’s 50 billion euro aid plan in December 2023, but has also repeatedly blocked Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU.

Since the Central and Eastern European countries and the Baltic countries rely on the United States for their security, their positions are aligned with the United States rather than the EU.The Baltic country Lithuania dared to do something that even the major powers in the world did not dare to do. It became the first representative office established in the name of “Taiwan” in Europe. It is also the only representative office established in the name of “Taiwan” in a country that has diplomatic relations with mainland China.After China imposed sanctions, it triggered confrontation between China and Europe. The confrontation between China and Europe is not in the interests of the EU but in the interests of the United States.

Secondly, the supremacy of values has caused Europe to lose its sense of reality.

Europe’s emphasis on values has its rational side.On the one hand, values are an important part of Europe’s soft power and an important factor in Europe’s global status.On the other hand, the EU is composed of sovereign countries with different languages and races. The factors that can bring countries together are economic interests and common values. Values can effectively influence the external world and maintain stability within the EU.

In addition, from the perspective of civilization, the way Europe develops and evolves is increasingly advanced.This is reflected in many aspects, not just at the level of values.For example, the legalization of gay marriage, the legalization of marijuana, the legalization of euthanasia, the large-scale admission of refugees, and the emphasis on climate issues.Even the design of the European Union is the result of this surreal evolution.

However, the supremacy of values has caused Europe to lose its sense of reality when facing international challenges and dealing with practical problems. As a result, Europe has lost its ability to think geopolitically.

After the end of the Cold War, the most obvious change in international politics in the 21st century is the return of great power competition and the re-emergence of geopolitics.But Europe, the birthplace of geopolitics, has lost its ability to think geopolitically and suffered serious consequences.

After 2008, the United States began to gradually adjust its policies toward China and Russia, and the strategic competition between the two sides became increasingly prominent. At this time, the geopolitical environment in Europe was the best. China, Russia, and the United States all needed Europe.Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe not only received cheap energy from Russia, but also obtained major strategic gains such as The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and European Union.At this time, the United States also made concessions to Europe and lifted the sanctions against Europe due to the Nord Stream project. But today all these strategic gains have been lost.

Take the EU-Russia relations mentioned above as an example. After the Crimea incident in 2014, Europe both supported NATO’s eastward expansion and increased its energy dependence on Russia, pursuing two completely opposite geopolitical goals.As a result, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. Faced with Ukraine, which is neither an EU member nor a NATO member, the EU intervened with all its strength, becoming not only the main bearer of the consequences of the conflict, but also the region with the most serious losses.

Another act that caused serious consequences was the European-led military intervention in Libya led by France.

Libya is separated from Europe across the sea and is closely related to Europe’s stability and security.However, in 2011, France was not only the first country to recognize the opposition, but also actively initiated military intervention in Libya and took the lead in launching military attacks.After the Gaddafi government was overthrown, the refugee problem that had been effectively controlled in the past broke out and became the most serious refugee crisis in Europe after World War II.The political chaos and disorder in Libya created conditions for the expansion of the terrorist organization Islamic State, which also posed a huge threat to European security. The Paris terrorist attacks in November 2015 are one example.

It is one of the important principles of geopolitics that neighboring countries should not have war or chaos, but Europe completely ignores it.However, in the late 1980s, a similar incident occurred in Algeria. At that time, France responded by immediately providing 15 billion francs in aid to prevent the collapse of the Algerian government from affecting French social stability. At that time, Europe still had a clear geopolitical awareness.

It should be said that overthrowing the Gaddafi government is in line with Europe’s values, but not in line with its strategic interests.Accepting a large number of refugees is in line with its values, but the consequence is the rise of populism and the promotion of Brexit, which threatens Europe’s internal political stability and reverses European integration.

Overall impact on China-EU relations

No matter from which aspect, China and Europe should be good strategic partners with mutual needs, strong support and close cooperation.

Geographically, China and Europe are far apart and there is no geopolitical conflict.In particular, after two world wars, Europe has given up on pursuing world hegemony. It neither believes that China’s rise harms its core interests nor will it sacrifice economic interests for hegemony.Historically, China is not a country like Germany and Japan, and has always firmly supported the EU’s strategic independence.Especially at present, the strategic competition between China and the United States is the main line of international relations. This is an opportunity for Europe.First, major powers need room for strategic maneuver and have strategic initiative.Second, Europe’s highest strategic interest is to pursue integration internally and strategic independence externally.Therefore, it is necessary to avoid interference from external forces in its internal affairs and to have external support. Normally speaking, both China and the United States in strategic competition need Europe, and Europe can better achieve these two goals if it seizes the opportunity.

Economically, China and the EU will be each other’s second largest trading partners in 2023. China is the EU’s third largest export market and largest import source, and the EU is China’s second largest export market and second largest import source.Currently, half of the 137 major commodities in the EU rely on supplies from China.Of the 30 metals defined as “vital” by the EU, 19 are mainly dependent on China’s exports.

In terms of international relations, the strategic game between China and the United States and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have rapidly increased the security needs of both parties.Especially after Europe loses the Russian card, if it wants strategic independence, China is the only remaining supporting force. Not to mention that China and Europe have a stable and lasting consensus on global governance, climate protection, globalization and free trade.

But in reality, bilateral relations have frequently clashed.In March 2019, the EU used the term “systemic rival”to characterize China.In 2021, sanctions were imposed on China over so-called “human rights issues”, the first time in thirty years. In addition, the EU has repeatedly intervened in the Taiwan issue and sent parliamentary delegations to Taiwan many times to challenge China’s core interests. The media is full of attacks and distorted reports on China.

The most difficult thing for the world to understand is that Europe’s actions are completely inconsistent with its own interests and will harm others and itself.

The root cause lies in the two major reasons mentioned above.

The EU’s integration is seriously insufficient, and all countries act out of their own interests, which gives the United States an opportunity to intervene.What’s more, due to historical reasons, the United States has a strong influence on Europe. In World War I, World War II and the Cold War, Europe was the main battlefield, and the United States played a key and decisive role as an ally.In this process, American influence and penetration became ubiquitous and deeply rooted in Europe. At all levels of European society: from the grassroots to the elite, pro-American factions are the mainstream.Many elites in the EU are willing to sacrifice their own interests to cooperate with the United States. In their minds, the interests of the United States are the interests of Europe or are higher than the interests of Europe.After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe, unable to cope with challenges on its own, could only rely on the United States to provide security guarantees, and its strategic autonomy suffered a severe setback.

Not only that, the United States uses its own technology and various convenient conditions to monitor European leaders for a long time.In 2013, former CIA employee Snowden released the inside story of the US “Prism Project” spying on European leaders.In May 2021, Danish media revealed that the U.S. National Security Agency used its cooperative relationship with the Danish intelligence agency to monitor leaders and senior officials of European allies, including German Chancellor Merkel.This is not only to understand the position of European leaders, but also to grasp their handle. During the election, the United States can decide whether to throw out based on its own national interests.

So in this case, when the United States needs the EU to cooperate with it in confronting China, it can either request, demand, or even force it. Therefore, it is not surprising that Europe excludes Huawei from 5G and the Netherlands refuses to sell photolithography machines to China.

Secondly, the United States takes advantage of the reliance of some small EU countries on its own security and the EU’s principle of unanimous decision-making to undermine China-EU relations.
In international relations, as long as their own interests are not harmed, small countries will not take the initiative to provoke big countries, especially the core interests of big countries.China is the second largest country in the world after the United States and poses no security threat to any European country. However, Lithuania and the Czech Republic have taken the initiative to challenge China’s core interests.Of course, these two countries want to strengthen the security guarantee provided by the United States and use China to express their loyalty to the United States.

But the intention of the United States is to use the conflict between China and them to undermine China-EU relations.No matter how much the EU disapproves of these provocations and understands the intentions of the United States, it has to side with them to maintain unity. In essence, it is being kidnapped.

The EU has lost its geopolitical thinking, but the rest of the world has not.On December 30, 2020, The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between China and European Union was signed over the opposition of the United States. But just over three months later, Britain, the United States, Canada, and the European Union jointly imposed sanctions on China on the grounds of human rights.This is the first time in more than 30 years that the EU has taken such action against China, and China has had to impose counter-sanctions.Obviously, this is a strategy of the Biden administration to undermine the China-EU investment agreement, and it decided that Europe could not refuse to play the value card, thus successfully freezing the agreement.

Now that Europe is in trouble, China not only does no harm to it, but is also the only force it can rely on. However, European public opinion is still vigorously attacking China, and values still come first.

It is precisely this characteristic of Europe that China and the United States’ strategies towards Europe are based on “Do subtraction” rather than “Do addition.”

The so-called “Do subtraction” refers to undermining Europe’s cooperation with the other side, while “Do addition” refers to trying to get Europe to cooperate with itself.The United States mainly undermined the China-EU investment agreement and also tried to make Europe and China actively decouple by hyping up the Taiwan issue, rather than committing Europe to follow it.Among the three major systems used by the United States to contain China: AUKUS, the Quad and the Five Eyes Alliance, not a single EU country is included.

It is in China’s interest to promote Europe to not completely follow the United States’ China policy and to achieve strategic independence. For example, France opposes the establishment of a NATO office in Japan.

New opportunities for China-EU relations today

From the current point of view, although Europe’s relationship with China has not improved and is deteriorating, its China policy is still significantly different from that of the United States. There are two main reasons.

First, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached a stalemate.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict turned into a stalemate that was beyond everyone’s expectations. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine withstood the Russian attack on its own.The surprised West then launched unprecedented sanctions against Russia. But surprisingly, Russia not only defeated Ukraine’s counterattack militarily, but its economy also resumed growth, even surpassing that of the European Union. This deadlock has thus become a new opportunity for China-EU relations.

Since Europe is the main victim of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become Europe’s core strategic interest. Any factor that can contribute to the end of the conflict has become a strategic factor for Europe.

When all parties still want to fight, although China calls for peace, it cannot play much role. Now entering a stalemate stage, all parties have realized that military means are no longer effective and political negotiation is the only way out.At this time, the role of China, which has always been neutral and capable of dialogue with all parties, became prominent. From a European perspective, China’s role is strategic.

Second, Trump may win the US presidential election again.

Trump’s election poses four major threats to Europe. First, the troubled West increasingly needs the role of values and the support of soft power.But Trump’s election itself is a denial of Western values and a blow to soft power. In the eyes of the world, the so-called Western democracy means electing Trump over and over again. Trump’s election itself threatens the legitimacy of Western values.

Second, Europe is facing the threat of rising populism sweeping across Europe. If Trump is re-elected, it will greatly encourage populism in Europe to expand faster.When the very pro-Russian Hungarian populist Prime Minister Orban visited the United States in March this year, in an extremely rare event, he did not meet the current President Biden but met with Trump as a civilian! This shows the relationship between the two parties. Trump also blatantly supported European populism in his first term.

Third, Trump pursues America first and is dismissive of Atlanticism. He believes that Europe is a country that takes advantage of the United States. He even regards Europe and China as the same kind,U.S.-European coordination and cooperation basically no longer exist.It is for the same reason that he announced the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changet and numerous international organizations. Although Europe pursues strategic independence, it still needs the leadership of the United States when it is still in its infancy.Trump’s unilateralism has led to a power vacuum and disorder in international politics, which is also inconsistent with European interests.

Fourth, Trump has made no secret of his identification with Putin and his negative stance on aid to Ukraine.When he met with Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, he claimed that he did not want to spend a penny in Ukraine. During the campaign, he even talked about ways to end this conflict one day.Obviously if he is re-elected, he will immediately cut off aid to Ukraine. Even if Europe continues to provide assistance, it will be difficult to maintain the current stalemate.

Europe is now confronting Russia. If the United States re-elects Trump , the only world power that Europe can rely on will be China. From this perspective, China’s value is strategic to both France and Europe.

Next year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the EU. At a time when the old international order is increasingly shaken and a new international order has not yet emerged, China-EU relations are also at a crossroads.

当人类进入二十一世纪之时，欧洲迎来高光时刻：欧盟连续扩容壮大、欧元成功投入使用。然而四分之一世纪过去了，欧洲却深陷困境，成为全球大国博弈最大受损方。

系列危机导致欧洲困境

欧洲国运由升到降的转折点是2008年美国金融危机引发欧洲主权债务危机。此后2011年发生阿拉伯之春，欧洲在法国带领下推翻利比亚卡扎菲政府，导致二战后规模最大的难民潮和伊斯兰国扩散，安全受到重大冲击。2014年，乌克兰发生政治危机，欧盟、波兰和俄罗斯共同斡旋并在三方见证下，亲俄的民选总统亚努科维奇与反对派签署协议。孰料墨迹未干协定就被撕毁：第二天亚努科维奇就被推翻。欧盟却没有对这种行为谴责和反对，而是支持。俄罗斯的回应则是支持乌东亲俄地区自治并重新将克里米亚纳入版图。欧洲随即对俄罗斯进行制裁，开启了双方最终对立的进程。

在经济危机和难民危机的冲击下，终于在2016年形成第一次欧洲政治危机：拥有欧盟第三大经济体、联合国常任理事国和核国家身份的英国脱欧公投成功，欧盟一体化第一次受到重大挫折。

2019年，新冠疫情爆发，欧洲浪费了中国成功抗击疫情为世界带来的极其宝贵的缓冲时间和经验，成为重灾区，经济和生命都受到重创。

2014年欧俄交恶之后，欧洲一方面仍然持续强化对俄罗斯能源的依赖，另一方面继续支持北约东扩。分别在2017年6月和2020年3月进行了第七次和第八次北约东扩。2021年拜登政府上台后，即公开提出支持乌克兰加入北约。在这个背景下，2022年2月20日，俄乌冲突爆发。欧洲再度成为利益最大受损者：难民和援助成本、失去俄罗斯廉价能源导致欧洲经济竞争力下降、再工业化难以实施、对美国的依赖从安全到能源大幅提升、战略自主受到重创、战略回旋空间受到严重压缩。在这种情况下，美国不顾欧洲的反对，以四倍于本国市场的价格向欧洲出售能源、出台严重打击欧洲再工业化能力的《反通胀法案》。

这些危机最终上升为政治危机：2022年6月，极右翼政党在欧盟第三大经济体意大利获胜。2023年11月，极右政党在传统西欧民主国家荷兰大胜，成为第一大党。2024年6月举行的欧洲议会选举结果表明，极右翼政党在欧洲各国都居于领先地位或影响力大幅上升。最重要的法国，极右政党国民联盟遥遥领先执政的复兴党十几个百分点。

反欧盟和排外为标志的极右翼民族主义势力的崛起，对欧盟的存续构成了严重的威胁。

欧洲深陷困境的原因

首先，这是欧盟自身的结构性问题造成的。欧盟是一个由主权国家组成的类似于邦联的政治实体，虽然一体化一直在推行，但一体化的程度远远不能够适应二十一世纪以来的国际和其内部环境。除了无法有效应对各种黑天鹅、灰犀牛等频发的风险，也难以应对新兴国家崛起、大国博弈回归、全球化激烈竞争、旧秩序日益失灵的时代。

比如2008年美国爆发金融危机，却在欧洲形成更严重的主权债务危机。当下的欧盟仅有统一的货币政策，但却对主权色彩浓厚的财政政策没有太多的制约手段，是各国自主的分散式财政。从而造成“同一央行，不同的财政”、“同一欧元，不同国债”的局面。虽然根据欧盟1997年通过的《稳定与增长公约》，每个国家的公共债务占GDP比重不能超过60%，加入欧元的各国财政赤字占GDP的比例必须低于3%。但是几乎没有任何国家能够遵守。就是法国和德国这样的核心国家也都做不到。2023年希腊、意大利、葡萄牙、法国、西班牙、比利时六国的政府债务与GDP之比均高于100%，尤其是希腊、意大利的负债率高达165.5%和140.6%。作为欧元区“火车头”的德国负债率虽然相对较低，为65.9%，也同样超过欧盟标准。根据2023年欧盟统计局数据，欧元区平均财政赤字占国内生产总值的比重为3.6%，欧盟平均为3.3%，均超过财政规则规定的上限。 据欧盟委员会发布的经济数据，2023年全年，约有12个欧盟国家赤字率超过规定的3%。欧盟和欧元区重要的国家法国，财政赤字占GDP的比重高达5.5%。

从经济角度讲，它这样的结构难以抵挡美国金融危机的冲击，也难以团结一致应对全球化激烈的经济竞争。

欧洲的这一结构性问题在面对2009年突发的新冠疫情之时又再次暴露无遗。欧盟行动迟缓，也无法协调各国一致行动。欧盟出台的应对疫情举措并未被成员国采纳，各国都是各自为战。甚至打破文明基本底线和外交原则争夺医疗物资：瑞士进口的消毒水等医疗物资被意大利、德国扣留，法国出台了征用口罩的行政命令，德国颁布了紧缺防疫物资出口禁令，意大利也开始宣布禁止防疫物资出口。后来为防止疫情在本国的扩散，一些《申根协定》成员国不惜违规关闭边界以求自保。特别是意大利最早爆发疫情，向欧盟求助竟无一国响应。

从国际政治角度讲，它也很难抵御外部力量的介入。欧盟的内陆国匈牙利一向高度依赖俄罗斯的能源，所以它和俄罗斯关系密切，即使发生俄乌冲突，它也站在俄罗斯一边。匈牙利不仅反对欧盟对乌克兰的援助——2023年12月直接投票否决欧盟500亿欧元援助计划，也多次阻止乌克兰加入欧盟的努力。

中东欧国家和波罗的海国家由于安全依赖美国，因此其立场对标美国而不是欧盟。波罗的海国家立陶宛敢做世界大国都不敢做的事，成为在欧洲第一个以“台湾”名义设立代表机构，也是目前唯一与中国大陆建交国以“台湾”为名设立代表机构。在中国进行制裁后，又引发中欧对立。中欧对立不符合欧盟利益但却符合美国利益。

其次，就是价值观至上，使得欧洲丧失了现实感。

欧洲强调价值观有其合理的一面。一方面价值观是欧洲软实力的重要组成部分，是欧洲在全球地位的重要因素。另一方面欧盟是由语言不同、种族不同的主权国家构成的，能使各国凝聚在一起的因素一是经济利益，二是共同的价值观。可以说价值观既可以有效影响外部世界，也可以保持欧盟内部的稳定。

另外从文明的角度理解，欧洲发展演变的方式日益超前。这体现在很多方面，并不仅仅是价值观这一层面。比如同性恋婚姻合法化、大麻合法性、安乐死合法化、对难民的大规模接纳、对气候问题的高度重视都是如此。甚至欧盟这种设计都是这种超现实演变的结果。

但价值观至上，则使得欧洲在面对国际挑战和处理实际问题时丧失了现实感，其后果则使欧洲丧失了地缘政治思维能力。

冷战结束后，国际政治在二十一世纪最明显的变化就是大国竞争的回归，地缘政治重新兴起。但地缘政治的发源地欧洲却丧失了地缘政治思维能力，并遭受严重的后果。

本来2008年后，美国开始逐渐调整对中国和俄罗斯的政策，双方的战略竞争日趋凸显，此时欧洲的地缘政治环境最好，中国、俄罗斯、美国都需要欧洲。俄乌冲突之前，欧洲既获得俄罗斯的廉价能源，也获得中欧投资协定等重大战略收获，此时的美国也对欧洲网开一面，取消了因为北溪项目对欧洲的制裁。但今天这些战略收益全都丧失。

以前文提到的欧俄关系为例。2014年克里米亚事件后，欧洲既支持北约东扩又强化对俄罗斯的能源依赖，追求两个完全相反的地缘政治目标。结果2022年俄乌冲突爆发，面对既不是欧盟也不是北约成员国的乌克兰，欧盟却全力介入，不仅成为冲突后果的主要承担者，也是损失最严重的地区。

另一个造成严重后果的行为就是在法国带领下以欧洲为主对利比亚进行的军事干预。

利比亚与欧洲隔海相望，与欧洲的稳定和安全密切相关。但是2011年法国不仅是第一个承认反对派的国家，还积极发起对利比亚的军事干涉，率先发动军事攻击。卡扎菲政府被推翻后，过去受到有效控制的难民问题爆发，成为欧洲二战后最严重的难民危机。利比亚的政治混乱和失序又给恐怖组织伊斯兰国的扩张创造条件，伊斯兰国对欧洲的安全也造成了巨大威胁，2015年11月巴黎恐袭就是一例。

周边国家不能生战生乱是地缘政治的重要原则之一，欧洲却完全无视。但在上世纪八十年代末，阿尔及利亚曾发生类似事件，那时法国的反应却是立即给予150亿法郎援助，以避免阿政府垮台影响到法国社会稳定。那时，欧洲尚有明确的地缘政治意识。

应该说，推翻卡扎菲政府符合欧洲的价值观，但不符合其战略利益。大量接纳难民符合其价值观，但后果则是民粹主义崛起和促成了英国脱欧，威胁到欧洲内部政治稳定并使得欧洲一体化逆转。

对中欧关系的总体影响

无论从哪一方面讲，中欧都本应该是相互需求、大力支持、密切合作的良好战略伙伴。

地缘上，中欧相距遥远，没有地缘政治冲突。特别是经过两次世界大战的欧洲已经放弃追逐世界霸权，既不认为中国崛起损害它的核心利益，也不会因为霸权因素牺牲经济利益。从历史上看，中国也不是德日这样的国家，而且一直坚定支持欧盟的战略自主。尤其是目前中美战略竞争是国际关系的主线，这是欧洲的机遇。一是大国都需要战略回旋空间，拥有战略主动权。二是欧洲最高战略利益是对内寻求一体化、对外追求战略自主。因此既要避免外部势力对自己内部事务的干涉，也要有外部支撑力量。正常来讲，战略竞争的中美都需要欧洲，欧洲抓住机会是能够较好地实现这两个目标。
经济上，2023年，中国和欧盟互为第二大贸易伙伴，中国是欧盟第三大出口市场、第一大进口来源地，欧盟是中国第二大出口市场、第二大进口来源地。目前主要的137种商品中，欧盟有一半都依赖于中国的供货。被欧盟定义为“至关重要的”30种金属中，有19种主要依赖中国的出口。

国际关系上，中美战略博弈和俄乌冲突使得双方的安全需求迅速上升。特别是欧洲丧失俄罗斯牌后，要想战略自主，就只剩下中国这唯一的支撑力量了。更不用说中欧在全球治理、气候变化、全球化和自由贸易方面有着稳定和持久的共识。

但在现实中，双边关系屡屡发生波折。2019年3月，欧盟用“系统性对手”来定性中国。2021年以所谓“人权问题”对中国进行制裁，创三十年首见。此外，欧盟屡屡介入台湾问题，多次派议会代表团窜访台湾，挑战中国核心利益，媒体更是充斥着对中国的攻击和歪曲报道。

全球最难以理解的是，欧洲这样做完全不符合自身利益，损人损已。根源就在于以上提到的两大原因。

欧盟的一体化严重不足，各国都从自身利益出发，自行其事，这就给了美国介入的机会。更何况由于历史原因，美国对欧洲有强大的影响力。一战、二战和冷战，欧洲都是主战场，美国以盟友的身份发挥了关键性、决定性的作用。在这个过程中，美国的影响力和渗透在欧洲无处不在，根深蒂固。欧洲各个阶层，从草根到精英，亲美派是主流。欧盟许多精英宁愿牺牲自身利益也要配合美国，在他们心目中，美国的利益就是欧洲的利益或者高于欧洲的利益。俄乌冲突发生后，无法独自应对挑战的欧洲只能依赖美国提供安全保障，战略自主受到重挫。

不仅如此，美国利用自己的技术和各种便利条件，对欧洲领导人长期监控。2013年，美国中情局前雇员斯诺登将美国“棱镜计划”监听欧洲领导人的内幕公布。2021年5月，丹麦媒体爆料，美国国家安全局利用同丹麦情报部门的合作关系，监听包括德国总理默克尔在内的欧洲盟国领导人和高级官员，这不仅仅是了解欧洲领导人的立场也是掌握他们的把柄，在选举的时候美国可以根据自己的国家利益决定是否抛出。

所以在这种情况下，当美国需要欧盟配合它对抗中国时，它既可以请求，也可以要求，更可以强迫。所以欧洲排除华为5G、荷兰拒绝向中国出售光刻机等就毫不奇怪了。

其次，美国利用欧盟一些小国对自己安全上的依赖和欧盟决策一致的原则破坏中欧关系。国际关系上，只要不是自己的利益受到损害，小国不会主动挑衅大国，特别是不会挑衅大国的核心利益。中国是仅次于美国的世界第二大国，对欧洲任何国家都没有安全威胁，但立陶宛和捷克却主动挑战中国核心利益，这两个国家当然是为了强化美国提供的安全保障，把中国当做投名状。但美国的意图则是利用中国和它们的冲突，破坏中欧关系。欧盟不管多么不赞成这些挑衅，也明白美国的用意，但出于维护团结和一致，也不得不站到它们一边，实质是被绑架。

欧盟失去地缘政治思维，但世界上其他国家却都没有忘却地缘政治。2020年12月30日中欧投资协定在美国的反对下签订。但仅仅3个多月以后，英美加联合欧盟以人权为由对中国进行制裁。这是三十多年来欧盟第一次对中国采取这样的行动，中国不得不进行反制裁。显然，这是拜登政府破坏中欧投资协定的策略，而且认定打价值观牌欧洲无法拒绝，从而成功冻结了这一协定。

现在欧洲面临困境，中国不仅对它没有任何危害，而且是它唯一可依靠的力量，可是欧洲舆论界仍然在大力的攻击中国，仍然以价值观为标准上纲上线。

也正是欧洲的这个特点，中国以及美国对欧洲的策略是立足于“做减法”而不是“做加法”。

所谓“做减法”是指旨在破坏欧洲和对方的合作，“做加法”是指拉欧洲配合自己。美国主要是破坏了中欧投资协定，还通过炒作台湾问题意图让欧洲和中国主动脱钩，而不是致力于欧洲跟着自己走。美国遏制中国的三大体系：AUKUS、四方安全对话机制和五眼联盟，一个欧盟国家都没有。

而推动欧洲不完全跟随美国的对华政策、实现战略自主，则符合中国的立场。比如法国反对北约在日本设立办事处就是一例。

当下中欧关系的新机遇

从目前看，欧洲虽然和中国的关系并没有改善且有恶化之势，但其对华政策和美国仍然有明显不同。这主要的原因有二：

一是俄乌冲突打成僵局。

俄乌冲突演变成僵局是出乎所有人预料的。开战之初乌克兰以一已之力顶住了俄方的进攻，大感意外的西方随后对俄罗斯发起前所未有的制裁。但没想到的是俄罗斯不仅军事上挫败了乌克兰的反攻，经济也同样恢复了增长，甚至超过欧盟，这个僵局也由此成为中欧关系的新机遇。

由于欧洲是俄乌冲突的主要受损者，因此迅速结束俄乌冲突已经是欧洲的核心战略利益，任何能促成冲突结束的因素都变成欧洲的战略因素。

在各方都还想大打出手的时候，中国虽有和平之心，但难以发挥多大作用。现在进入僵持阶段，各方已经意识到军事手段不再有效，政治谈判是唯一出路。此时一向中立并能和各方对话的中国的作用就凸显出来了。从欧洲的角度，中国的这种作用就是战略性的了。

二是特朗普有可能再度赢得美国总统大选。

特朗普如果当选对欧洲有四大威胁。一方面，陷入困境的西方越来越需要价值观的作用，更需要软实力的支撑。但特朗普当选本身就是对西方价值观的否定和软实力的打击。在世人眼里，所谓西方民主就是一而再地选出特朗普。这本身就危及其正当性。另一方面，欧洲正面临日益高涨、席卷全欧的民粹主义威胁。特朗普如果再次当选，将极大的鼓舞欧洲民粹主义更快地扩张。非常亲俄的匈牙利民粹主义总理欧尔班今年3月访问美国时，竟然极其罕见的没有会见现任总统拜登却会见了平民身份的特朗普！足见双方的关系。特朗普第一个任期也从不掩饰他对欧洲民粹主义的支持。

另外特朗普奉行美国优先，对大西洋主义不屑一顾，认为欧洲都是沾美国便宜的国家，他甚至把欧洲和中国视为同类，美欧协调与合作形存实亡。也是出于同样的原因，他宣布退出巴黎气候协定以及众多的国际组织。欧洲虽然追求战略自主，但在羽翼未丰之际，仍然需要美国的领导。特朗普的单边主义导致国际政治权力真空和秩序混乱同样不符合欧洲利益。

还有特朗普毫不掩饰他对普京的认同，也毫不掩饰对援助乌克兰的否定立场。他在和匈牙利总理欧尔班会面时声称不想在乌克兰花一分钱。竞选时更说有可以在一天就结束这场冲突的办法。显然如果他再度当选，将会第一时间切断对乌克兰的援助。欧洲即使继续援助，就是目前的僵持局面也很难维持。

现在的欧洲正和俄罗斯对抗，美国如果再选出特朗普，欧洲能够依靠的世界大国就只有中国了。从这个角度讲，中国的价值对法国和欧洲都是战略性的了。

明年是中欧建交50周年，在旧的国际秩序日益震荡、新的国际秩序尚未出现之时，中欧关系也处于十字路口。